Shane Baz Underdog MLB Picks Today, June 23, 2026: Baseball Projections + More

What is up, Fantasy Alarm family?! We are back with a pristine Tuesday slate of baseball, and we are digging out the absolute best value on the board today by stacking our advanced MLB DFS Projections up against rolling lineup trends and performance metrics to completely isolate market inefficiencies. Since these breakdowns are entirely free to read, we want to protect our main board and keep our top premium plays reserved, so we are highlighting two high conviction starting pitchers running into elite split environments. Model movements can be checked around the clock on the Fantasy Alarm Bet Tracker to view our complete library of expert picks.

Shane Baz MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 5.5 Strikeouts

Shane Baz is a phenomenal anchor to build your entire card around today. The right hander continues to showcase premium stuff for the Baltimore Orioles, carrying an established 19.8% strikeout rate and a 7.7 K/9 mix across his season long starts. While his seasonal averages float near the league baseline, his current form is electric, fanning nine batters over seven frames in his most recent outing.

Tonight, he runs directly into a Los Angeles Angels batting order that represents a complete gold mine for right handed pitchers. The Angels hold a prominent 24.8% strikeout rate against righties on the full year, which ranks as the absolute highest mark in all of Major League Baseball. Their tracking metrics over the last 14 days show zero signs of improvement, hovering at a volatile 22.8% clip. Baz has the native raw metrics to completely dominate this layout, making the Higher an incredibly sharp selection.

Parker Messick MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 5.5 Strikeouts

Parker Messick is another priority target you absolutely want to squeeze onto your cards tonight. Messick has been an absolute revelation for Cleveland this season, flashing a dominant 26.4% strikeout rate and a steady 9.4 K/9 baseline. He has been remarkably consistent at exploiting bad lineups, smashing the Higher on tonight's 5.5 target line in 70% of his appearances over his rolling tracking window.

Today he encounters a Chicago White Sox lineup whose short term metrics highlight severe vulnerabilities against left handed throwing. While Chicago holds a high 24.7% seasonal strikeout rate against southpaws, their rolling tracking metrics over the last 14 days have skyrocketed up to a prominent 30.7% strikeout rate. Our MLB DFS Projections heavily favor Messick exploiting their recent zone expanding tendencies tonight, making the Higher a top choice for your card.

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