Jesus Luzardo Underdog MLB Picks Today, 8/9: Baseball Projections + More

Quick Summary of Today’s Top Underdog MLB Picks: 

• Jesus Luzardo (PHI): Lower Than 5.5 Hits Allowed
• Alec Burleson (STL): Higher Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

The 2026 MLB season rolls on with the All-Star break in the rearview. It’s been an entertaining first half of baseball with plenty of highlights, storylines, and breakout players to watch. Let’s now focus on the Sunday, August 9th slate of games with our top Underdog MLB Picks. We’ll break down a pair of MLB DFS projections to lock in as you enjoy today’s action. 

Underdog Fantasy MLB Picks: Sunday, 8/9

Jesus Luzardo MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Lower Than 5.5 Hits Allowed

Jesus Luzardo gets the start for the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday. The left-hander is in a good spot to limit a Toronto Blue Jays lineup that’s struggled in this split. Let’s back Luzardo at home to cash our pick. 

Toronto’s .216 batting average and .282 wOBA against left-handed pitching are both dead last in the MLB this season. The Blue Jays are also batting just .206 with a .257 wOBA vs. southpaws since the All-Star break. Both are bottom-tier marks in the league during this stretch. 

Luzardo, meanwhile, has been pitching very well over the past two months. He boasts a 1.98 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his last 10 starts, with a 33.1% strikeout rate and .175 batting average allowed in this span. The Phillies’ lefty has allowed two runs or fewer in six of his last eight home starts. Plus, he held the Blue Jays to only one run on four hits when he faced them in June. 

• MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Jesus Luzardo Lower Than 5.5 Hits Allowed

Alec Burleson MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

It’s been profitable to fade Michael Lorenzen all season, and we’ll gladly do it again today. The Colorado Rockies’ starter is sporting an ugly 6.94 ERA and 1.85 WHIP this season. He’s also been roughed up lately to the tune of a 7.27 ERA over his last six starts. 

Lorenzen has notably been crushed by left-handed batters, allowing a .355 batting average and 1.029 OPS in the split this year. That leads us to Alec Burleson, who is hitting .329 with a .967 OPS against right-handed pitching. The splits line up perfectly to back Burleson. 

Plus, the St. Louis Cardinals’ first baseman is on fire right now. Since the All-Star break, Burleson is hitting .355 with a .956 OPS. That includes 48 total hits, runs, and RBI over 20 games during this stretch. It also helps that he’s gone 4-for-5 with a pair of home runs in his career meetings with Lorenzen. 

• MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Alec Burleson Higher Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI