Gavin Williams Underdog MLB Picks Today, 8/25: Baseball Projections + More

Tuesday’s top two Underdog plays go in opposite directions, with a Guardians ace fresh off crossing the 200-strikeout mark projecting for the higher and a struggling former Cy Young winner projecting for the lower, for Underdog Fantasy. Before you lock in your Higher or Lower calls, cross-check the numbers with our MLB Player Prop Tool and track how our staff is doing on the board with the MLB Expert Picks Tracker.

Gavin Williams MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 7.5 Strikeouts

Williams just crossed 200 strikeouts for the first time in his career, striking out 11 over 5.2 innings in his last outing against San Francisco. He has reached double digits in six of his past eight starts, a dominant stretch that has come alongside a career-best walk rate and WHIP this season. Los Angeles carries a 25.1 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, a favorable matchup for a pitcher already missing bats at an elite level. His history against the Angels has also been strong, with a sub-2.00 career ERA across his previous starts against this opponent.

Paul Skenes MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Lower than 6.5 Strikeouts

Skenes has posted a 5.28 ERA over his last six starts, a clear step back from the dominant form that defined his first two big league seasons, with his fastball velocity trending down as well. His last two outings were both capped under 85 pitches as Pittsburgh has deliberately managed his workload rather than letting him work deep into games. San Diego has been one of the hottest offenses in baseball since late July, posting an MLB-best 125 wRC+ in that stretch with a disciplined approach that has given pitchers trouble finding swing-and-miss counts. That combination of a shortened pitch count and a red-hot, contact-first lineup makes the under the smarter side of this number.

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