Davis Martin Underdog MLB Picks Today, 6/16: Baseball Projections + More

What is going on, everyone? Tuesday's MLB slate has some genuinely sharp spots sitting on the Underdog board right now, and we are locking in on two starting pitchers whose current form and situational matchups give us strong conviction. We are keeping our premium plays protected, but these two free breakdowns are as high-confidence as anything we have on the board today. Track all model movements around the clock at the Fantasy Alarm Bet Tracker and check the full suite of expert picks before you finalize your cards.

Davis Martin MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 5.5 Strikeouts

Davis Martin is the anchor of the day on Underdog, and it is not particularly close. The public is going to look at his last start against the Twins, where he managed just two strikeouts in 4.2 innings while allowing six runs, and fade the Higher. That is the wrong read. That rough outing pushed his ERA to 2.61, but he still carries a 73:17 K:BB across 72.1 innings this season. He ranks first in WAR among all American League pitchers, and the White Sox are 9-1 in his starts.

The underlying swing-and-miss profile has not budged. His slider sits at a 51.2% swing-and-miss rate, and his kick-changeup is holding hitters to a .161 batting average. One bad night does not undo any of that, especially when tonight's opponent is a Yankees lineup missing Aaron Judge to a stress fracture of the first rib, with no return expected before August. The depth options filling that spot are exactly the type of hitters Martin's put-away sequences eat alive. This is a buy-low spot on an elite pitcher in a plus matchup. Lock in the Higher.

Robert Gasser MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 4.5 Strikeouts

Robert Gasser's ERA is not the number you need to evaluate this pick. His most recent start was at Las Vegas Ballpark, where the thin air and short dimensions inflate run totals beyond recognition. He struck out seven over five innings in that Las Vegas start despite allowing six runs. The swing-and-miss ability is intact even when the ballpark is working against him.

Tonight, he is home at American Family Field against a Cleveland Guardians lineup that has never faced him before. This marks Gasser's first career appearance against Cleveland, and that first-time matchup advantage is real for a pitcher with as much deception in his delivery as Gasser brings from the left side. No scout report. No in-game adjustments from prior at-bats. Just his full five-pitch mix against hitters seeing his arm angle for the first time. The 4.5 line on Underdog is a low number for a pitcher who punched out seven in the toughest strikeout environment in baseball. Our MLB DFS Projections favor the Higher comfortably tonight.

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