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  1. 🎯 New to Underdog Fantasy? Claim Your Bonus
  2. Steven Matz Underdog MLB Pick'em — Higher 5.5 Strikeouts
  3. Daulton Varsho Underdog MLB Pick'em — Higher 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI
  4. Build Your Underdog Pick'em Entry Today

Looking for the best Underdog Fantasy MLB picks today? Fantasy Alarm digs into Thursday's top Higher/Lower selections so you can build a winning pick'em entry on today's MLB slate. From pitcher strikeout props to multi-category hitter plays, our daily Underdog MLB analysis targets the lines where the data and the matchup tell the same story. Whether you are stacking a multi-leg entry or isolating your best individual play, check out Fantasy Alarm's Underdog MLB picks page for expert projections and matchup breakdowns all season long. Here are the top Underdog Fantasy MLB picks for Thursday, April 16, 2026.

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Steven Matz Underdog MLB Pick'em — Higher 5.5 Strikeouts

Matz has been one of the better stories in the American League to open the season. Three starts, three wins, a 2.97 FIP, and back-to-back dominant outings against Minnesota and the Yankees, where he racked up 15 strikeouts across 11 innings. The command has been sharp, the slider has been his primary weapon, and the .231 BABIP against with an 88.5 mph average exit velocity tells you hitters are not squaring him up.

The White Sox matchup could not be better for a lefty with a 9.56 K/9. Chicago is last in the AL in batting average at .191 and last in baseball in OBP at .280. More importantly, they are punching out at a 28.2 percent clip against left-handed pitching this season, one of the worst marks in the sport. That combination of pitcher form and opponent vulnerability makes Higher 5.5 one of the stronger plays on today's board.

Daulton Varsho Underdog MLB Pick'em — Higher 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI

Varsho is carrying real power into this season off a 2025 campaign where he hit 20 home runs in 71 games with a .548 SLG and a 15.9 percent barrel rate. His 2026 xwOBA of .345 tracks right with that profile, and his ability to contribute across multiple categories in a single game makes this prop attractive against today's opposing starter.

Brandon Sproat has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball through his early 2026 starts, carrying a 9.16 FIP with a 20 percent walk rate and four home runs allowed in just 10.1 innings. Against a hitter with Varsho's power and on-base ability, this matchup has multiple paths to success. A home run, a walk followed by a run, or an RBI hit each gets this done. Against a pitcher who has been this consistently hittable, at least one of those paths opens up.

 

 

 

Build Your Underdog Pick'em Entry Today

Matz against a lineup with a 28.2 percent strikeout rate against lefties and Varsho against a pitcher with a 9.16 FIP give you two clean, well-supported picks to anchor Thursday's entry. Sign up with promo code ALARM and grab your $50 bonus before first pitch.