We are almost four weeks into the baseball season and panic has already started for many players. There have been a lot of players off to awful starts. There are many players with batting averages below .200. Baseball is a sport where patience is needed and the cold weather in April doesn't help hitters perform.
There are some players with concerns based on early performance. I'll go through some of the ones that have been asked about the most and give my thoughts.
Keston Hiura (Brewers): It has been an awful start for Hiura. He looks lost at the plate and swinging and missing a lot. He is striking out 36.7 percent of the time and strikeouts are always an issue for him. He is walking 8.3 percent of the time, which is the best mark of his career. The problem is the low contact for pitches in the zone. Hiura has a slash line of .118/.250/.216 with five runs, one home run, five RBIs and one stolen base. Hiura also struggled last season, but the power and speed combo made him appealing. The best thing to do with Hiura is bench him for now. It can be more difficult in deeper formats due to all the injuries, but there are concerns with Hiura.
Javier Báez (Cubs): Wait, a player with four home runs and five stolen bases in 16 games is on the list? While those numbers have been good, the approach for Baez at the plate has been abysmal. Baez has struck out 31 times and walked once. Yes, you read that correctly. He has a slash line of .200/.250/.433. Baez has a swinging strike percentage of 27 percent. Baez has always had a bad approach at the plate and been an impatient hitter and it worked for a while. It caught up to him last season and he batted .203. Baez is hitting the ball hard when making contact, but hitting more ground balls. He has a xBA of .171 and xWOBA of .256. The power and speed should be there, but the batting average is going to be very low.
Luis Castillo (Reds): Castillo had another rough outing on Tuesday. He went four innings and allowed seven hits, three runs – one earned –, walked three and struck out four, throwing 89 pitches; 52 for strikes. Castillo loaded the bases in the third and fourth innings and was able to get out of the jams. The underlying numbers weren't terrible as he averages 96.1 miles per hour with the fastball. That's what I was looking for as the velocity has been down this month. This is something we have seen from Castillo in the past. He struggles in cold weather and early in the season. For his career, he has a 4.53 ERA in April. There has been some bad luck with a .365 BABIP and 57 percent strand rate. Expect Castillo to get better. The key will be increased velocity and getting more swings and misses.
Zach Plesac (Indians): Plesac was going too high in drafts based on last season's stats. He had a 2.28 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in eight starts over 55.1 innings last season with a 27.7 percent strikeout rate and 2.9 percent walk rate. He was one of the players boosted up draft boards way too much based on eight starts. It doesn't mean he's bad, just overpriced. Plesac has a 6.75 ERA, 1.34 WHIP. 17.5 percent strikeout rate and 2.5 percent walk rate in four starts over 18.2 innings. He is allowing a lot of hard contact and a 4.83 xERA. In 13 innings against the Tigers, Plesac has allowed two runs. In 5.2 innings against the White Sox, he has allowed 12 earned runs. He won't be this bad all the time, but if you had high expectations based on last season, you will be disappointed.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Blue Jays): Many of the Blue Jays are struggling. Gurriel has a slash line of .188/.231/.208 with four runs, no home runs and four RBIs in 48 at-bats. The Blue Jays have a great home park in Dunedin for hitters and Gurriel has only played five home games. He also recently missed time due to the COVID-19 vaccine. This looks like a slow start and not someone to worry about.
Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Hendricks has been one of the more reliable pitchers over the last few seasons and always outperforms the underlying numbers despite not throwing hard. He has pinpoint control with an excellent changeup and induces a lot of soft contact and hasn't so far in three starts. In 13 innings, he has allowed 15 hits, five home runs, walked seven and struck out 12. His last start against Atlanta really made the stats look bad as he allowed seven hits, seven runs, four home runs, walked three and struck out two in four innings and it was his first start since missing one due to sickness. Keep an eye on his next two starts because if he's throwing pitches in the zone that are hittable, he's in big trouble. He has a career walk rate of 5.4 percent, so the 11.3 percent mark so far seems like an outlier as well as the home runs.