We kick off another week of MLB PrizePicks plays with a decent board of player props as we look to target pitchers in some pretty strong matchups with reachable strikeout totals. I'm also targeting a pitcher who is making his second start of the season against one of the league's hottest offenses.

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PrizePicks Top Plays

 

Logan Webb Over 6.0 Strikeouts

Webb's PrizePicks strikeout total is a bit elevated when compared to the sportsbooks which have him at 5.5 strikeouts but the over on 5.5 strikeouts is a -155 favorite tonight. Webb faces a Braves team that has the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball this season and the second-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. If you look on the surface you may be unimpressed by Webb's strikeout totals this season but he has flashed the strikeout upside we saw out of him last year. He is coming off a nine-strikeout outing against the Royals and had 10 strikeouts against the Phillies three starts prior.  Webb has finished with at least six strikeouts in eight of his 13 starts this season. I'm betting on the matchup helping him hit the over here tonight.

 

Lance Lynn Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed

On paper this one feels like a no-brainer for me. Lynn is making his second start of the season as he works his way back from the injured list. In his season debut Lynn was knocked around for three runs on 10 hits over 4.1 innings against the Detroit Tigers of all teams. In his three minor league rehab starts he allowed 10 runs on 15 hits over 10 innings. Tonight he takes the mound against the Toronto Blue Jays who rank 5th in OBA, 5th in wOBA and 3rd in home runs against right-handed pitching this season. With the way Lynn has pitched and the way the Blue Jays have hit we could see this one hit the over by the first inning. 

 

Yu Darvish Over 6.0 Strikeouts

The Diamondbacks, much like the Braves and Angels, are among the teams we love to target when it comes to opposing pitcher strikeout props. We had a lot of success last week with both Tyler Mahle and Luis Castillo hitting the over against the Diamondbacks and now we have yet another right-handed power pitcher in Darvish taking the mound against them.  Arizona has the fifth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season and the seventh-highest strikeout rate over the past two weeks. Now, Darvish has a career-low K/9 this season and it's really not close but he has finished with six or more strikeouts in three of his last four starts. He faced the Diamondbacks in his first start of the season and tossed six no-hit innings before being lifted. Darvish generally has a long leash and pitches deep into games which will give him more opportunities to hit the total we are looking for here today. 

 

Zach Davies Over 4.0 Strikeouts

I'm far from the biggest fan of Davies but the numbers are the numbers and over his last four starts Davies is averaging 6.25 strikeouts per outing. He's hit the over on tonight's total in seven of his 13 starts this season. He will also face a Padres lineup that will be without Manny Machado who is on the injured list after suffering an ankle sprain on Sunday.  When it comes to strikeout rate the Padres are a middle-of-the-pack team, ranking 18th with a 22.1% strikeout rate. With the idea that Machado is out of the lineup, I'm thinking Davies may have an easier time against this lineup which may afford him the opportunity to pitch a bit deeper into tonight's game where he will only need four strikeouts for us here tonight to push. I'm hoping he continues to pitch at his current form and we hit the over here early. 

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