MLB PrizePicks Cheat Sheet - Best Player Prop Plays for June 17: Jon Gray Cages The Tigers
Published: Jun 17, 2022
Updated: Jun 17, 2022
We look to keep the hot streak going as we are 10-2 over the past three days with our top MLB PrizePick plays of the day. Today's I'm targeting some strikeout props for pitchers who have posted some elite strikeout numbers this season along with a couple other pitcher props for guys in favorable matchups.
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PrizePicks Top Plays
Jon Gray Over 6.0 Strikeouts
Gray has a 26.0% strikeout rate on the season with a K/9 of 9.87. That said, in two of his last three starts we have seen Gray post strikeout totals of 10 and 12. The Tigers have the fifth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season at 24.9% and over the past two weeks that number is even higher with the Tigers having the second-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching at 28.1-percent. I'm looking for Gray to continue his recent strikeout prowess against a team that is really struggling to make contact right now.
Hunter Greene Over 6.5 Strikeouts
The rookie Greene has been a strikeout machine this season, posting a 30.3% strikeout rate with a K/9 of 11.85. The issue with Greene however is the fact that he tends to get hit and today's game is playing in Cincinnatti which is a big-time hitters ballpark. Greene has pitched better over his last two starts, allowing just one run over 12 innings while striking out 15 which included a tough matchup against the Cardinals. He's faced the Brewers twice this season. In his first start he allowed eight runs over 2.2 innings but managed seven strikeouts. In his second start he held them to two runs over 5.1 innings but struck out only six. Greene has had just one start this season where he finished with less than six strikeouts so the hook is definitely in play. Greene has gone over today's number in three straight outings.
Michael Lorenzen Over 16.5 Outs
To hit the over on this prop today we need to see Lorenzen pitch at least 5.2 innings which is something that he's done in eight of his 10 starts including in each of his last five outings. Over the last two weeks Seattle ranks 28th in team batting average against right-handed pitching and 19th in wOBA and OPS. The Angels have allowed Lorenzen to pitch deeper into games of late as well when it comes to pitch count as he's thrown at least 96 pitches in three straight starts and four of the last five so as long as he stays out of trouble we shouldn't see pitch count cost us an early hook.
Jordan Montgomery Under 4.5 Strikeouts
Let me first say that this is a play that I have a slight lean on. I really don't take under's on strikeout props often, especially in today's “free-swinging” era of the MLB but what we have here today is a matchup where Montgomery has just a 19% srikeout rate on the season with a K/9 of 6.89 against a Blue Jays lineup that is absolutely demolishing left-handed pitching right now while owning a strikeout rate of just 18%. Montgomery has not had more than five strikeouts in any start this season HOWEVER one of those starts did come against this Blue Jays squad. My gut is saying only use this play in flex plays today even if the numbers say it's pretty safe.
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