MLB DFS Playbook May 6: Top Plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Published: May 06, 2023
Time for Saturday baseball! We have a full day of baseball ahead. The main slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel is an 8-game set kicking off at 7:10 PM EST. There are some exciting matchups happening today, highlighted by the San Diego Padres taking on the rival Los Angeles Dodgers, the Boston Red Sox looking to extend their 7-game win streak against the Philadelphia Phillies, and Nathan Eovaldi coming off of his complete game shutout facing the Los Angeles Angels. Plenty of exciting arms and hitters to target today and be sure to check in with our MLB DFS Tools, with the daily MLB projections, MLB DFS rostership projections, and our MLB DFS Lineup Generator when building those lineups today to help you decide which players you should be targeting!
MLB DFS Playbook May 6
MLB Weather Updates
The weather is being kind again today! Looking like a mostly sunny day of baseball across the slate besides a little bit of rain in Seattle, but there is always a little bit of rain in Seattle.
DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
Spencer Strider is obviously the top pitcher of the slate, but man, is he pricey. Over the last year, he has easily been the best starting pitcher on a per-inning basis, so it is reasonable to try and pay up for him today against the Baltimore Orioles. I prefer using the top half of the pitching options today, besides one value play in Brady Singer that I have highlighted below. It is looking to be a high-scoring game in Philadelphia, with both sides having great offenses and getting to face pitchers at the back end of the rotation. There are also favorable matchups for the Kansas City Royals, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, and Houston Astros that I am in favor of targeting today.
Recommended DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options for Strikeouts
Spencer Strider vs Baltimore Orioles
Blake Snell vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Dustin May vs San Diego Padres
Alex Cobb vs Milwaukee Brewers
Best Odds for a Win
Spencer Strider vs Baltimore Orioles
Brady Singer vs Oakland Athletics
Alex Cobb vs Milwaukee Brewers
Tommy Henry vs Washington Nationals
Favorite Starters to Use for DFS Lineups
Nathan Eovaldi is coming off a complete game shutout of the New York Yankees, where he only gave up 3 hits and struck out 8 and was his 3rd straight quality start. Eovaldi has had at least 5 strikeouts in every game so far and is averaging 6.5 strikeouts per start. He was brilliant against the Yankees, who albeit, have been not good so far, but he has the stuff to shut down any offense when pitching well. While he does have to face Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani today, the Angels offense has been far from terrifying, with a 104 wRC+ against right-handers.
Brady Singer, Kansas City Royals
There is no way to sugarcoat it, Brady Singer has been a disappointment this season. Coming off a great 2022 campaign, he currently has an 8.49 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP. Today though, he gets to face the Oakland Athletics. Bryce Miller had been similarly struggling while pitching at AA with a 6.41 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, and then went to Oakland in his MLB debut and took a perfect game into the 6th inning with 10 strikeouts. I am going to bet that an established major league pitcher like Brady Singer can manage to pitch well against a team that is seemingly easier to pitch to than AA offenses.
Recommended DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
Kansas City Royals vs Ken Waldichuk
Philadelphia Phillies vs Corey Kluber
Arizona Diamondbacks vs MacKenzie Gore
Los Angeles Angels vs Nathan Eovaldi
Favorite Hitters to Use for DFS Lineups
If you haven’t figured it out yet, you should be started Jonah Heim against left-handed pitching. He isn’t just the best hitting catcher against left-handers this season; he is the 15th-best hitter overall against left-handers by OPS with a minimum of 20 plate appearances, with an OPS of 1.213. Facing Reid Detmers today, it seems highly unlikely that Heim doesn’t return his value, and I would be willing to pay a lot more to get him into my lineups.
Remember how good I said that Jonah Heim was against left-handed pitching? Well, Josh Jung has been even better. He is 4th among qualified hitters against left-handed pitching with an OPS of 1.307. For some context at how outrageously good that is, Barry Bonds' OPS in 2004 was 1.422. So yeah, Jung has been within a stone's throw of peak Barry Bonds good against left-handed pitching this season. Obviously, he likely won’t remain quite that good all season, but the kid can flat-out hit left-handed pitching and is far too cheap in this matchup.
Jeremy Peña, SS Houston Astros
The theme for today’s highlighted hitters is players with an OPS over 1.000 against left-handed pitching. This is the Houston Astros version, with Jeremy Peña facing Marco Gonzales of the Seattle Mariners. While Pena’s OPS of 1.049 isn’t quite at the Jonah Heim and Josh Jung level, it is still extremely good, and he does have better numbers against lefties over his career than the other two. Marco Gonzales isn’t a bad pitcher, but he is a back-end starter at best, and this strong Houston Astros lineup should have no trouble putting up a solid run total against him today.
Joc Pederson, OF San Francisco Giants
Alight going against my theme here with the hitter who can’t hit left-handers at all. At this point in his career, I don’t need to convince you of Joc Pederson’s ability to hit right-handed pitching though. Colin Rea has been fine this year for the Brewers, but a 4.79 ERA along with a 1.74 HR/9 aren’t much to be excited about. Another thing in favor of Joc today is the Brewers lack of quality left-handed relievers, so you shouldn’t have to worry about him struggling or getting pulled after Rea exits the game. The Giants, as a whole, are a great offense against right-handers as well, so the lineup around Joc should help keep the line moving today against the Brewers.
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