MLB DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups & Stacks Today: Wednesday Playbook (Early)

Wednesday's early slate is only six games, but it's stacked with story lines. Zack Wheeler's been nails since coming back from shoulder surgery, the Rays are riding an 8-game win streak into Sacramento, and Arizona's fighting for a Wild Card spot at home against Colorado. Here's the full Fantasy Alarm DFS lineup picks for the early slate, built off real matchup data and the weather. Swing by the Fantasy Alarm DFS tools hub once you've built out your pool and want help optimizing.

MLB Weather Today, August 12, 2026

One thing to watch on the early slate: Busch Stadium has a real chance of a delay this afternoon, a broken line of storms is expected to push through sometime during the Phillies-Cardinals game, though it's more likely they play through it than get stopped outright. Everywhere else is calm. Chase Field's roof will be closed regardless of the 97-degree heat outside, and both coast games, Astros-Giants at Oracle and Brewers-Padres at Petco, should play cool and comfortable with the marine air keeping temps way down.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

Top Pitchers

Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs. STL 

Wheeler's comeback from thoracic outlet surgery has been about as good as it gets, a 2.69 ERA and 132 strikeouts through 19 starts, with a 0.98 WHIP and 3.15 FIP that both look like peak Wheeler. He's striking out over 30% of the batters he faces and walking next to nobody (6.5%). St. Louis has been a below-average offense against righties this year (95.0 wRC+), and with Kyle Leahy going for the Cardinals, this profiles as a game Wheeler and the Phillies control from the mound down.

Drew Rasmussen (TB) vs. ATH 

Rasmussen's quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball all year, a 2.75 ERA and 130 strikeouts over 22 starts, with an elite 0.91 WHIP and a K/BB profile (26.8% strikeouts, just 4.5% walks) that ranks with anybody. The Rays have been the best team in the American League and they're rolling into this one on an 8-game win streak. The Athletics have been one of the league's worst clubs all year, and Jack Perkins on the mound for Oakland has been rough himself, a 7.04 ERA that makes this about as friendly a matchup as Rasmussen will see all season.

Shane Baz (BAL) vs. MIN

Baz has quietly put together a strong first year in Baltimore after years with the Rays, a 3.76 ERA and 120 strikeouts through 23 starts with a 3.35 FIP. Minnesota's actually been a bit above average against righties this year (105.8 wRC+), so this isn't a total mismatch on paper, but Baz's strikeout stuff (20.7% rate) and the Twins' inconsistent lineup construction give him a real shot at a strong outing regardless.

Value Pitchers

Dustin May (MIL) vs. SD 

May's been a nice pickup for Milwaukee since the deadline deal sent him over from St. Louis. He's sitting on a 4.30 ERA and 111 strikeouts over 22 starts combined this season, with a 3.26 FIP that's actually better than his ERA suggests. San Diego's been a roughly average offense against right-handers (99.3 wRC+), and May slots in as a fair value price behind an offense (Milwaukee) that's been the best team in the National League this year.

Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs. COL 

Kelly's numbers are rougher than you'd like, a 4.88 ERA and a 5.57 FIP over 21 starts, with a strikeout rate (15.4%) that's below where you want your pitchers. That said, Colorado's own offense has been unspectacular against righties this year too (95.0 wRC+), and at $6,900 Kelly's price reflects the risk. Treat him as a GPP-only piece behind Arizona's lineup rather than a cash-game anchor.

Top Options For Strikeouts

• Zack Wheeler — 132 strikeouts in 19 starts with a 30.6% strikeout rate, both marks that scream ace, and he's barely walking anybody (6.5%).
• Drew Rasmussen — 130 strikeouts with a 26.8% rate and a tiny 4.5% walk rate, one of the cleanest strikeout-to-walk profiles in the league.
• Shane Baz — 120 strikeouts and a 20.7% rate, plus a friendly park matchup against a Minnesota lineup that doesn't have a ton of thump top to bottom.
• Dustin May — 111 strikeouts and a 23.0% rate that's a level above what his ERA might suggest, backed up by a strong 3.26 FIP.

Best Odds For A Win

• Drew Rasmussen (TB) — the Rays are the best team in the American League right now and are riding an 8-game winning streak into this one.
• Zack Wheeler (PHI) — Philadelphia's lineup should give Wheeler a comfortable cushion against a Cardinals club that's been selling off talent all summer.
• Dustin May (MIL) — Milwaukee's been the best team in the National League this year, and that kind of offensive support goes a long way.
• Shane Baz (BAL) — a competitive spot, but Baz's strikeout stuff gives him a real shot against a Twins lineup that isn't especially deep.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

Top Hitters

Junior Caminero (TB) vs. ATH 

Caminero's putting together a monster season, 35 home runs, 74 RBI and a .924 OPS with a 152.7 wRC+ through 119 games. He's also been excellent against right-handers specifically (.917 OPS, 150.1 wRC+), which lines up perfectly against Jack Perkins today. At just 22 years old he's already one of the most feared power bats in the league, and he's the clear centerpiece of the best offense on the slate.

Yordan Alvarez (HOU) vs. SF 

Alvarez has been an absolute monster this year, 35 homers, 87 RBI, a 1.058 OPS and a video-game-esque 187.7 wRC+ through 119 games. His platoon splits are almost unfair too, a 210.4 wRC+ against right-handers specifically, and Adrian Houser throws right-handed for the Giants. When Alvarez is right, he's about as automatic a power play as exists in this pool.

Corbin Carroll (ARI) vs. COL 

Carroll's been a nice power-speed blend all year, 17 homers, 16 steals, an .806 OPS and a 118.3 wRC+ through 117 games, and Arizona's fighting for a playoff spot with this game against a bad Rockies club. His numbers against righties are a bit more middling (.743 OPS, 100.2 wRC+) than his overall line, so this isn't a slam-dunk platoon matchup, but Ryan Feltner's own struggles (5.71 ERA, 5.74 FIP) more than make up the difference.

Value Hitters

Chandler Simpson (TB) vs. ATH

Simpson's a different kind of weapon, 33 stolen bases and a .307 average with almost no strikeouts (just an 8.7% rate on the year), even if the power's basically nonexistent. Against right-handers specifically he's actually been a bit better than his season line (108.9 wRC+, still with a tiny 7.5% strikeout rate), and at this price he's one of the cheapest ways into the best offense on the board, with real stolen-base equity baked in.

Andrew Vaughn (MIL) vs. SD 

Vaughn's had a quiet, solid year overall, 5 homers and an .860 OPS with a strong 138.6 wRC+ across 75 games, but the number that jumps out is his platoon split. In a small sample against lefties, he's been other-worldly, a 1.144 OPS and a 210.7 wRC+, and Robbie Ray throws left-handed for the Padres today. That's exactly the matchup you want at this price point.

Lars Nootbaar (ARI) vs. COL 

Nootbaar's had a rough go of it this year, a .221 average and an 86.5 wRC+ across two organizations, landing in Arizona at the deadline, and he's been about league-average against right-handers specifically (98.4 wRC+). This isn't a star play, but he's cheap, he hits near the top of a good Diamondbacks lineup, and he gives you correlated exposure to the Arizona stack without eating much of your salary.

Zac Veen (COL) vs. ARI 

Veen just got called up Tuesday after a monster run at Triple-A Albuquerque, a .327/.402/.635 line with 24 homers and 18 steals over 100 games there. His only prior MLB look was a rough 12-game cup of coffee last year, so there's real uncertainty here, but he's projected to hit eighth today and the price is about as low as this pool goes. If you're punting a roster spot to pay up elsewhere, a red-hot prospect at the minimum is a reasonable way to do it, even against Merrill Kelly, one of our own pitcher picks above.
 

Top Stacks

Rays vs. Jack Perkins (ATH)

Why: Perkins has been rough all year, a 7.04 ERA that's near the bottom of the league, and he walks too many guys for a pitcher who isn't missing enough bats to cover for it (26.4% strikeouts against an 8.9% walk rate). Tampa Bay's lineup has been excellent against right-handers all season (112.7 wRC+), and they're the hottest team in baseball right now, riding an 8-game winning streak into Sacramento against a club that's been one of the league's worst all year.

Targets: Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, Chandler Simpson, Junior Caminero, Victor Mesa

Diamondbacks vs. Ryan Feltner (COL)

Why: Feltner's had a tough season, a 5.71 ERA and a 5.74 FIP that both point to a pitcher who's beatable most nights. Arizona's own numbers against right-handers are only middling this year (87.8 wRC+), so this isn't purely a platoon smash, but the Diamondbacks are fighting for a playoff spot at home and Feltner's own struggles are enough to make this a legitimate offensive spot regardless of the team-level split.

Targets: Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Ketel Marte, Gabriel Moreno, Lars Nootbaar

Orioles vs. Zebby Matthews (MIN)

Why: Matthews has had a rocky season, a 5.23 ERA and 5.04 FIP through 15 starts, with a walk rate (7.7%) that's a bit high. Baltimore's lineup has been solidly above average against right-handers this year (104.0 wRC+), and with Gunnar Henderson and Pete Alonso both hitting near the top of the order, this is a lineup with real thump from top to bottom.

Targets: Pete Alonso, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Leody Taveras, Dylan Beavers

Contrarian Stacks

Phillies vs. Kyle Leahy (STL)

Why: Leahy's actually had a decent year for St. Louis, a 3.45 ERA and 3.78 FIP through 22 starts, so this isn't about the pitcher being a pushover. It's more about where the ownership will go: with Wheeler such an obvious chalk play on the mound, the field may overlook that Philadelphia's own lineup against right-handers is close to average (93.5 wRC+) rather than truly explosive. Still, in a good park with a deep order, the Phillies offer a sneaky, lower-owned way to attack a competent but unspectacular Cardinals arm.

Targets: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryson Stott, Luis Arraez

Padres vs. Dustin May (MIL)

Why: May's a value pitcher pick above for good reason, but if you want the pivot off that chalk, San Diego's lineup is the play. The Padres have been a roughly average offense against right-handers this year (99.3 wRC+), nothing special, but May is still a pitcher working his way into a new rotation after a midseason trade, and Petco's mild conditions tonight won't do much to suppress a lineup with Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado in the middle of it.

Targets: Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Ty France, Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters & Pitchers

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