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⚡ THE SLATE DASHBOARD

💎 PITCHING COACH

Top Tier

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | vs HOU

Ohtani has been virtually unhittable, with just two earned runs allowed in 30 innings this season. The strikeouts are uncharacteristically below 30%, but the whiff rate is in line with every season he was above that mark. The matchup is not great, but you can make that case for each of the top-tier pitchers. 

Gavin Williams (CLE) | vs KC

Williams has a sparkling 2.70 ERA through seven starts, and the strikeouts and groundballs are sitting at a career-high 31.0% and 50.5%, respectively. He is still walking too many batters, but the bump in strikeouts and grounders can help him work out of trouble. KC has been a below-average offense (94 wRC+) against righties this season. 

Jacob deGrom (TEX) | vs NYY

DeGrom has been phenomenal this season, and the strikeouts have ticked back up to an elite level. The 2.01 ERA and 32.5% strikeout rate are vintage deGrom numbers. He gets a tough assignment in Yankee Stadium today, but he just shut down the Yankees over six innings his last time out.  

Value Plays

Jameson Taillon (CHC) | vs CIN

Taillon is not a pitcher who typically has much upside, but this slate lacks upside-value options. Taillon should get much better pitching weather than yesterday, with the wind blowing in slightly. The Reds also strike out at the 2nd-highest rate in the league against right-handed pitching. 

Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) | vs PIT

Pivoting off of a somewhat chalky Taillon is a great idea, but the options are lackluster at best. Rodriguez has been lucky this season, with a .257 BABIP and 84% strand rate, but the matchup is strongly in his favor today. Pittsburgh has been below average against lefties (95 wRC+) while striking out at a massive 27.2% rate. Perhaps the regression will hold off for one more start for E-Rod. 

💎 HITTING COACH

Elite Bats

Kyle Tucker (OF, LAD) | vs HOU 

Tucker is off to a slow start with the Dodgers, but he is beginning to heat up. Over his last 11 games, he's posted a 118 wRC+, and he just hit his first homer in that stretch yesterday. He is coming off four straight seasons with a 130 wRC+ or better, so there is little doubt he will continue to improve going forward. 

Ketel Marte (2B, ARI) | vs PIT

Marte is off to a slow start this season, but everything under the hood signals a breakout is imminent. He ranks in the 89th percentile for average exit velocity and 82nd percentile for hard-hit rate. Chandler has really struggled against lefties this season, with a 16.4% strikeout rate and .264 ISO allowed. 

Max Muncy (3B, LAD) | vs HOU

Muncy has surprisingly been the Dodgers' most productive regular in a loaded lineup. He owns a .253 ISO and .403 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. The Dodgers have the highest implied team total on the slate. 

Seiya Suzuki (OF, CHC) | vs CIN

Suzuki has been red-hot for the Cubs, with a 173 wRC+ that would rank 7th in baseball if he had enough at-bats to qualify. The wind isn't as favorable as yesterday, but he will hold the platoon advantage against the lefty Abbott. Suzuki crushed southpaws last season with a .250 ISO and .355 wOBA. 

Value Bats (Salary Savers)

• Will Smith (C, LAD): Smith remains underpriced for a middle-of-the-order hitter in one of the best lineups in baseball. 
• Geraldo Perdomo (SS, ARI): Perdomo has a 112 wRC+ and should hit leadoff against Chandler, who has struggled to get left-handed batters out this season. 
• Dansby Swanson (SS, CHC): Swanson should move up in the order against the lefty. He owns a .306 ISO against southpaws this season after posting a .209 ISO against them last year. 
• Miguel Amaya (C, CHC): A cheap catching option with the platoon advantage against a mediocre lefty. 

🏗️ THE STACKING BLUEPRINT

Primary Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers 

Targets: Kyle Tucker, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Dalton Rushing, Max Muncy, Andy Pages 

Opponent: Houston Astros | LAD 5.2 implied

Lambert is a good story as he's emerged as a solid rotation option for Houston after spending a year in Japan. Unfortunately for him, he faces the Dodgers tonight. He walks too many batters and will likely face some regression at the hands of the Dodgers' loaded lineup (even without Ohtani). 

Primary Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks 

Targets: Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, Ildemaro Vargas, Adrian Del Castillo 

Opponent: Pittsburgh Pirates | ARI 5.0 implied 

Chandler is a stud pitching prospect with a big arm, but some development still needs to happen. He has struggled to get lefties out (16.4% K rate, .264 ISO) and he has walked far too many batters (15.4%). If he can't get the command in line, it could be an early exit against a talented D-backs lineup. 

Contrarian Stack: Chicago White Sox

Targets: Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery, Miguel Vargas, Chase Meidroth, Edgar Quero

Opponent: Los Angeles Angels | CWS 4.5 implied 

The White Sox put up a healthy five runs yesterday against one of the best pitchers in baseball. They get a much easier matchup tonight against an inexperienced lefty who owns a 7.77 ERA in AAA this season. 

Contrarian Stack: Chicago Cubs

Targets: Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Miguel Amaya

Opponent: Cincinnati Reds | CHC 4.5 implied 

The Cubs disappointed last night after the rain spoiled the plans for a wind game. Weather conditions are worse today (without the rain) as the wind is expected to be blowing slightly in from right field. The Cubs matchup against Abbott still gives them a massive ceiling, as they have been the best offense in baseball against lefties (136 wRC+). 

Contrarian Stack: San Francisco Giants

Targets: Rafael Devers, Bryce Eldridge, Luis Arraez, Willy Adames, Casey Schmitt

Opponent: San Diego Padres | SF 4.0 implied 

The Giants' offense has been dreadful as they have scored the fewest runs in baseball, posting a pitiful 79 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. They get a plus-matchup against Buehler tonight and have called up one of the best power-hitting prospects (Eldridge) in baseball. It is a great spot for them to get their offense on the right track. 

📈 THE LEVERAGE REPORT (GAME THEORY)

🎯 HEART OF THE ORDER

The core pieces for every lineup you build today. Ownership drives the cash versus GPP label.

Player Pool

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