Welcome to Fantasy Alarm's MLB DFS picks and daily fantasy playbook for Thursday, September 17th. Our MLB DFS projections combine advanced pitching metrics, platoon splits, strikeout prop data, and ownership positioning to identify the sharpest plays on every slate. Whether you are targeting DFS Projections, running lineups through our DFS Optimizer, tracking ownership trends, or checking confirmed lineups, Fantasy Alarm has the tools to sharpen your edge. 

Today's slates have multiple different directions with some quality pitchers in Taj Bradley, Sonny Gray, Nolan McLean, and Walbert Urena all taking the mound. This MLB DFS playbook covers every key position on DraftKings and FanDuel with our best MLB DFS picks for today.

Slate: 5-Games | Lock Time: 7:15 pm ET, Thursday, September 17th, 2026

Vegas Totals: KC/HOU (highest-projected game), DET/CWS (second-highest game total), PHI/NYM (tied for third-highest game total)

Highest K-Projections: Taj Bradley 6.5 O/U (-133), Sonny Gray 5.5 O/U (-104), Nolan McLean 5.5 O/U (+104), Aaron Nola 5.5 O/U (+111)

MLB Weather Today, 9/17

Phillies vs Mets - There's a lot of rain in the forecast and there's definitely a possibility at a delay. Winds are blowing out to center at 10+ MPH.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

MLB DFS Top Pitchers

Taj Bradley (MIN)

Analysis: Dream matchup for the best fantasy pitcher on the slate. The Angels have the lowest wRC+ (77) and the highest K-rate (27.2%) vs. RHP since the All-Star break. Bradley has a slate-high 27.3% K-rate and will be the chalk of the day.

Sonny Gray (BOS)

Analysis: The Rangers are good against lefties but no so good against righties. They have a 24.2% K-rate and a 90 wRC+ against right-handed hurlers. Gray has flashed a solid ceiling lately putting up 29+ DKP in three of his last seven starts.

Nolan McLean (NYM)

Analysis: McLean does have random blow ups but also has been incredibly consistent all year as backed by his 3.24 ERA and 184 Ks. Philadelphia is a fantastic matchup for him considering they rank T25th in wRC+ (89) and a sub-.700 OPS. 

Walbert Urena (LAA)

Analysis: It's been all gas no breaks for Walbert Urena. His rookie campaign has been fantastic and has an excellent floor/ceiling combination when he throws strikes. He's a decent strikeout arm and generates boatloads of ground balls. The Twins haven't been as good vs. RHP as they were when Buxton was healthy as they have a 98 wRC+ since the ASB.

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Aaron Nola (PHI)

Analysis: Over his last nine starts, Aaron Nola has pitched to a 2.38 ERA along with a 24.7% K-rate. He's had some luck on his side for sure pitching to a .271 BABIP and 97.3 LOB%. That stuff isn't sustainable. The Mets offense has been top-five vs. RHP since the All-Star break, too, in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+. GPPs only.

Framber Valdez (HOU)

Analysis: There's a ton of risk with Valdez today. A ton. The White Sox are awesome against left-handed pitching but Valdez has also been awesome of late as he hasn't allowed any earned runs in two straight starts and has a QS in four straight. The White Sox offer strikeout upside big time as they're punching out at a 25% clip and Valdez is SO cheap on DK.

Top Options For Strikeouts

K-prop lines and value ratings are incorporated below for DFS and prop context. These are the arms building the highest strikeout ceilings on the 9-game slate.

Our model identifies these arms as the highest-ceiling plays for Alt-K lines today:

Taj Bradley: 27.3% K% (10.3 K/9)

Nolan McLean: 26.5% K% (9.9 K/9)

Aaron Nola: 23.9% K% (92. K/9)

Walbert Urena: 22.6% K% (8.6 K/9)

Best Odds For A Win

The following MLB DFS picks offer a combination of favorable win odds, sustainable ERA and xFIP metrics, and soft opponent matchups. Each carries K-prop lines worth noting alongside their DFS value at reduced ownership relative to the top tier.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

MLB DFS Top Hitters

Juan Soto (OF, NYM) & Francisco Lindor (SS, NYM)

Analysis: Despite Aaron Nola pitching well, he still has pretty bad numbers against lefty bats and the Mets offense have been top-5 since the break. Both Soto and Lindor have .225 ISOs or better while Soto has a .413 wOBA and Lindor's at .350.

Kevin McGonigle (3B/SS, DET) & Riley Greene (OF, DET)

Analysis: It's been a pretty lucky stretch of pitching for Erick Fedde and I'm not expecting that to continue too much longer. Today being the cutoff and the Tigers have some great options. McGonigle has a .174 ISO and .198 xISO, .381 wOBA and .380 xwOBA against righties. Greene has a .201 ISO, .262 xISO, .371 wOBA, and .378 xwOBA against righties too.

Willson Contreras (1B, BOS)

Analysis: In two of three games since being back, Contreras has looked fantastic at the plate. He's going to get multiple lefties this season and Contreras rakes against southpaws posting a .287 ISO, .325 xISO, .418 wOBA, and .424 xwOBA. Lock and load.

Yordan Alvarez (OF, HOU) & Jeremy Pena (SS, HOU)

Analysis: Seth Lugo has been very inconsistent this season and the Astros are a slate-leading 4.9 implied runs. They're really popular and Lugo has allowed a .170 ISO to both splits, which is why Alvarez and Pena both stand out here.

Carter Jensen (C, KC) & Jac Caglianone (OF, KC)

Analysis: The Astros are throwing out an opener, but Ethan Pecko is expected to be the bulk man and he has been AWFUL against lefties. Lefties have a .327 ISO, .336 xISO, .374 wOBA, and .454 xwOBA against Pecko this year. Jensen's been awesome vs. RHP posting a .255 ISO, .351 wOBA, and 20 HR while Caglianone has robust numbers too; .216 ISO, .239 xISO, .366 wOBA, .381 xwOBA.

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Vinnie Pasquantino (1B, KC), John Rave (OF, KC) & Michael Massey (2B, KC)

Analysis: The Royals have good value today, especially the left-handed one's against Ethan Pecko and friends. Pasquantino has an .833 OPS in the second half of the year, Michael Massey is hitting over .300 and an .811 OPS since the break, and Rave has a .917 OPS in September.

Spencer Torkelson (1B, DET) & Max Clark (OF, DET)

Analysis: Tork has historically been better against righties and this year has been no different (.224 ISO, .330 wOBA & 21 HR). Max Clark is cookin' too hitting .314 with a .900 OPS over his last 10 games. He's had four extra-base hits and three steals during this span.

Isaac Parades (3B, HOU)

Analysis: Parades is a reverse splits hitter and faces a guy who can serve it up. Paredes has a .180 ISO, .350 wOBA, and 18 HR against right-handed pitching this season.

Adley Rutschman (C, BOS), Caleb Durbin (3B, BOS) & Trevor Story (SS, BOS)

Analysis: This could be the Red Sox 5-6-7 lineup stack against the lefties and the Rangers are expected to throw a lefty opener and a lefty bulk guy. They're really cheap and have good history against southpaws.

A.J. Ewing (OF, NYM)

Analysis: Ewing just keeps raking. Over his last 10 games, he's slashed .432/.463/.649 with two homers, two steals, eight runs driven in, and seven more scored. It's a good matchup despite Nola pitching well because Nola still serves the HR ball up.

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Primary Stack: Detroit Tigers vs Erick Fedde (CWS RHP)

Targets: Kevin McGonigle, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Max Clark, Colt Keith, Dillon Dingler

Primary Stack: Boston Red Sox vs Tyler Alexander/Cody Bradford (TEX LHP)

Targets: Willson Contreras, Adley Rutschman, Caleb Durbin, Trevor Story, Roman Anthony

Primary Stack: Kansas City Royals vs Miguel Ullola/Ethan Pecko (HOU RHP)

Targets:  Carter Jensen, Jac Caglianone, Michael Massey, John Rave, Vinnie Pasquantino, Bobby Witt

“Contrarian” Stack: New York Mets vs Aaron Nola (PHI RHP)

Targets: Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, A.J. Ewing, Brett Baty, Carson Benge, Jared Young

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters & Pitchers

The "Chalk" (Popular)

The "Pivot" (Low

Owned)

Gray (SP, chalk)Valdez (SP, lower owned)
Astros (Chalk)Royals (pivot stack)
Alvarez + Diaz (chalk)Jensen + Pasquantino (lower owned)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The foundation for every MLB DFS lineup you build today. These are the core MLB DFS picks by position across DraftKings and FanDuel.

  1. Taj Bradley (SP1)
  2. Nolan McLean (SP2)
  3. Kevin McGonigle (Core Bat)
  4. Carter Jensen (Core Bat)
  5. Willson Contreras  (Core Bat)
  6. Max Clark (Core Value Bat)
  7. Vinnie Pasquantino (Core Value Bat)

Player Pool

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Stacks

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