Welcome to Fantasy Alarm's MLB DFS picks and daily fantasy playbook for Saturday, May 16th. Our MLB DFS projections combine advanced pitching metrics, platoon splits, strikeout prop data, and ownership positioning to identify the sharpest plays on every slate. Whether you are targeting DFS projections, running lineups through our DFS optimizer, tracking ownership trends, or checking confirmed lineups, Fantasy Alarm has the tools to sharpen your edge. 

Today's 8-game main slate features aces like Jacob deGrom and Jose Soriano, plus the elite hitting environment of Sutter Health Park. This MLB DFS playbook covers every key position on DraftKings and FanDuel with our best MLB DFS picks for today.

Slate: 8-Game Main  |  Lock Time: 7:10 PM ET, Saturday, May 16, 2026

Vegas Totals: SF/ATH 9.5 O/U (highest-projected game), MIL/MIN 8.5 O/U (second-highest, tied), CHC/CWS .5 O/U (second-highest, tied), NYY/NYM 8.5 O/U (second-highest, tied), LAD/LAA 8.5 O/U (second-highest, tied)

Highest K-Projections: Jacob deGrom 7.5 O/U (+118), Logan Gilbert 6.5 O/U (+110), Jose Soriano 5.5 O/U (-115)

MLB Weather Today, 5/16

No weather issues today. 

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

MLB DFS Top Pitchers

Jacob deGrom (TEX)

Analysis: The lanky righty has found the elite strikeout stuff again that has made him one of the game's best pitchers. This season, he has posted a 32.8% strikeout rate and 16.8% swinging-strike rate, both of which rank in the top three in baseball. 

Logan Gilbert (SEA)

Analysis: Gilbert has posted a 3.78 ERA through nine starts, but both xFIP (3.37) and SIERA (3.27) have him a decent bit better than that. The strikeouts have regressed this season, but Gilbert gets a plus matchup against a San Diego offense that has been below-average against righties (94 wRC+) and whiffs at the ninth-highest rate. 

Bryce Elder (ATL)

Analysis: Elder is enjoying a resurgent season in which he owns a 1.81 ERA through nine starts. There is some luck involved, but a new cutter and a bump in four-seam usage have led to more strikeouts this season. Tonight, he draws a plus matchup against a Boston offense that ranks dead last in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. 

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Carlos Rodon (NYY)

Analysis: Rodon has made just one start this season, but he was up to 78 pitches in that outing. He should be cleared for around 90 pitches in his second turn. It comes in an elite pitcher's park against a Mets offense that has had major struggles this season, including a 78 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.  

Logan Henderson (MIL)

Analysis: Henderson has made just three starts, but he's recorded 16 strikeouts to just 2 walks across 13 innings. A plus change-up and elite control have allowed him to be efficient in his last two outings. Minnesota owns a below-average 94 wRC+ against righties, and they strike out at the fifth-highest rate. It's a plus matchup for the young righty. 

Top Options For Strikeouts

The two top strikeout targets in today's MLB DFS projections each draw tough opponents. K-prop lines and value ratings are incorporated below for DFS and prop context. These are the arms building the highest strikeout ceilings on the eight-game slate.

Our model identifies these arms as the highest-ceiling plays for Alt-K lines today:

Jacob deGrom: 32.8% K%, 16.8% SwStr% 

Jose Soriano: 28.4% K%, 13.3% SwStr%

Logan Gilbert: 25.5% K%, 12.6% SwStr% 

Carlos Rodon: 25.7% K%, 12.4% SwStr% (2025)

Logan Henderson: 32.7% K%, 10.8% SwStr% (3 starts)

Best Odds For A Win

The following MLB DFS picks offer a combination of favorable win odds, sustainable ERA and xFIP metrics, and soft opponent matchups. Each carries K-prop lines worth noting alongside their DFS value at reduced ownership relative to the top tier.

• Jacob deGrom: +103
• Logan Gilbert: +110
• Justin Wrobleski: +142
• Bryce Elder: +152
• Luis Severino: +154

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

MLB DFS Top Hitters

Nick Kurtz (1B, ATH)

Analysis: The A's have the highest implied total on the board, and Kurtz should hit at the top of the lineup. The big lefty has smashed righties with a .280 ISO and .444 wOBA. 

Corey Seager (SS, TEX)

Analysis: It has been a rough season for the Rangers' shortstop, but he owns a 152 wRC+ over the previous three seasons. There is little doubt he will eventually get back on track. Tonight, he faces an inexperienced righty who has allowed a .271 ISO to lefties this season. 

Julio Rodriguez (OF, SEA)

Analysis: J-Rod has cooled a bit after a scorching hot start to the month, but he gets a great spot against reverse-splits righty tonight. Buehler allowed a .212 ISO to righties last season, and he's up at .182 ISO/.242 xISO allowed this season.  

Tyler Soderstrom (OF, ATH)

Analysis: Soderstrom comes with an attractive mid-range price tag in the best hitting environment of the slate. The lefty has crushed right-handed pitching with a .216 ISO this season, and he posted a .212 ISO against them last year. 

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Evan Carter (OF, TEX)

Analysis: Carter should hit in the middle of the lineup and owns a .183 ISO against righties this season. Teng has struggled in his only two starts this season, and lefties have tagged him for a .271 ISO so far. 

Sam Antonacci (OF, CWS)

Analysis: Antonacci has been an on-base machine at the top of the White Sox lineup, with a .398 wOBA against righties. Lefties have gotten the best of Taillon this season, posting a .266 ISO against him. 

Zack Gelof (3B/OF, ATH)

Analysis: Gelof has been excellent for the A's this season, posting a 124 wRC+ so far. He has tagged righties for a .275 ISO and .387 wOBA, and he has some stolen base upside as well. 

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Primary Stack: Athletics vs Trevor McDonald (SF RHP)

Why: The A's are the only team on the slate with an implied run total above five runs. They are facing a righty making just his 5th career big league start. He struggled with an ERA above 5.00 in Triple-A both this year and last, so there is likely some regression heading his way after two successful starts. 

Primary Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs Connor Prielipp (MIN LHP)

Why: Milwaukee has struggled against lefties this season, but they have played most of it without two of their best hitters (Chourio and Vaughn). With those two back in the lineup, they are better set up for success against an inexperienced lefty making just his 5th career start. Prielipp has been solid so far, but his .196 BABIP screams regression is looming.  

Primary Stack: San Francisco Giants vs Luis Severino (ATH RHP)

Why: The Giants will enjoy a massive park upgrade for offense today in Sutter Health Park. Underlying metrics agree that Severino has been a little lucky to post a 4.07 ERA this season, and his 13.7% walk rate could become troublesome in a hurry if his 78% strand rate doesn't hold up. 

"Contrarian" Stack: Seattle Mariners vs Walker Buehler (SD RHP)

Why: The Mariners have been an elite offense against righties this season, with a 118 wRC+ that ranks third in baseball. Buehler has had reverse splits, so look to Rodriguez and Arozarena first, but all the lefties are also really cheap.  

"Contrarian" Stack: Texas Rangers vs Kai-Wei Teng (HOU RHP)

Why: Teng has been solid out of the Astros' bullpen, but this will be just his 10th career start. In two starts this season, he's allowed five runs in six innings with just three strikeouts. 

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters & Pitchers

The foundation for every MLB DFS lineup you build today. These are the core MLB DFS picks by position across DraftKings and FanDuel.

1. Jacob deGrom (SP1)
2. Carlos Rodon (SP2)
3. Nick Kurtz (Core Bat)
4. Corey Seager (Core Bat)
5. Julio Rodriguez (Core Bat)
6. Zack Gelof (Core Value Bat)
7. Evan Carter (Core Value Bat)

Player Pool

$ Tier	{{pos.alias}}

Stacks

{{stack.team.name}}	{{player.name}}
DraftKings	{{player.fantasy.price.value[8]}}-
Fanduel	{{player.fantasy.price.value[6]}}-