Welcome to Fantasy Alarm's MLB DFS picks and daily fantasy playbook for Saturday, October 3rd. Our MLB DFS projections combine advanced pitching metrics, platoon splits, strikeout prop data, and ownership positioning to identify the sharpest plays on every slate. Whether you are targeting DFS Projections, running lineups through our DFS Optimizer, tracking ownership trends, or checking confirmed lineups, Fantasy Alarm has the tools to sharpen your edge. 

This MLB DFS playbook covers every key position on DraftKings and FanDuel with our best MLB DFS picks for today.

Slate: 4-Game Main | Lock Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 3rd, 2026

Vegas Totals: ATL/LAD(highest-projected game total), CWS/CLE – NYY/TB – SD/MIL (second-highest game total)

Highest K-Projections: Jacob Misiorowski 7.5 O/U (-140), Tarik Skubal 6.5 O/U (-119), Parker Messick 6.5 O/U (+105), Drew Rasmussen 5.5 O/U (-155)

MLB Weather Today, 10/3

No weather issues. 

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

MLB DFS Top Pitchers

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL)

Analysis: The Miz erased the conversation for best pitcher on the planet by throwing more triple-digit fastballs than anyone has ever seen from a starting pitcher. On top of that, he posted a sparkling 1.80 ERA and a 38% strikeout rate, and is poised to take home a unanimous NL Cy Young Award. 

Matchups don't really matter for this dude, but the Padres have been electric in the second half, posting a 119 WRC+ and easily dispatching the Cubs in the first round of the Wild Card series. 

Tarik Skubal (LAD) 

Analysis: Skubal enters the NLDS as one of the premier pitching options on the slate. His combination of strikeout ability, run prevention, and workload gives him both a strong floor and one of the highest ceilings available at the position.

The matchup with Atlanta is not without risk, particularly because the Braves have several dangerous right-handed hitters who can punish mistakes. Still, Skubal's ability to generate swings and misses gives him a path to a big DFS performance even if he allows some contact.

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Drew Rasmussen (TB)

Analysis: Rasmussen is interesting because his 2026 profile is much stronger than his name recognition suggests. He finished the regular season 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA and 174 strikeouts in 172 innings. His 9.1 K/9 and 26% strikeout rate give him enough strikeout upside to matter in DFS, while the excellent WHIP provides a strong run-prevention floor.

Parker Messick (CLE)

Analysis: Messick finished 2026 with a 2.56 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 193 strikeouts over 186.1 innings, while maintaining a strong 19.3% K-BB rate. His contact-quality numbers were also excellent: just a 5% barrel rate and 87.5 mph average exit velocity allowed.

The matchup is especially encouraging because Messick has repeatedly handled Chicago this season. Across four 2026 starts against the White Sox, he produced 29 strikeouts in 25.2 innings, including 10 Ks in 7.2 innings on June 23 and 8 strikeouts in both starts down the stretch. 

Gerrit Cole (NYY)

Analysis: Cole made three starts against Tampa Bay this season, posting a 2.50 ERA with 16 strikeouts and seven walks over 18 innings, and he allowed three runs or fewer in each outing. His career numbers against the Rays are also strong, posting a 3.33 ERA in 23 starts. This is not necessarily a pitcher who should be or is used to being priced in the value tier. 

Top Options For Strikeouts

K-prop lines and value ratings are incorporated below for DFS and prop context. These are the arms building the highest strikeout ceilings on the 10-game slate.

Our model identifies these arms as the highest-ceiling plays for Alt-K lines today:

Jacob Misiorowski: 37.9% K% (13.0 K/9)

Tarik Skubal: 30.0% K% (10.6  K/9)

Drew Rasmussen: 26.0% K% (9.1 K/9)

Parker Messick: 25.8% K% (9.3 K/9)

Best Odds For A Win

The following MLB DFS picks offer a combination of favorable win odds, sustainable ERA and xFIP metrics, and soft opponent matchups. Each carries K-prop lines worth noting alongside their DFS value at reduced ownership relative to the top tier.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

MLB DFS Top Hitters

Shohei Ohtani (1B/OF, LAD) & Max Muncy (3B, LAD) 

Analysis: Ohtani has been in and out of the lineup, but he claims he's fully healthy entering the NLDS. When he's healthy, he just might still be the best hitter on the planet. He owns a .227 ISO and .378 wOBA against righties this season, and those numbers even feel light for his true talent level. 

Muncy is also up at an elite .236 ISO and .359 wOBA against righties. Even if they bury him in the lineup, Muncy has extreme power numbers against righties. 

Jackson Chourio (OF, MIL)  

Analysis: Chourio can score points in multiple ways. The combination of power and speed means you're not dependent on a home run for a ceiling game. A couple of hits plus a stolen base or run scored can produce a strong result, while his home-run power gives him legitimate tournament-winning upside. He destroyed lefties with a .242 ISO and .413 wOBA this season. 

Junior Caminero (3B, TB)  

Analysis: I have a lot of respect for Gerrit Cole and the Yankees bullpen, but this is a different breed of hitter. Cole allowed 9 home runs in his last four outings to close the regular season. Caminero will be a problem for the Yankees all series long. 

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Will Smith (C, LAD) 

Analysis: To put it simply, this is just too cheap a price tag for a middle-of-the-order hitter in the Dodgers' elite lineup. Smith has missed time this season, which is contributing to the low tag, but he posted a .192 ISO against righties this year and was above .200 last season. 

Jonathan Aranda (1B, TB)  

Analysis: Aranda posted a .188 ISO and .364 wOBA against righties this season, and he was even better than that last season. Cole has been susceptible to fly-balls and power in recent seasons, so this is a strong matchup for the powerful lefty. 

Jo Adell (OF, CLE)  

Analysis: Adell has smashed lefties for a .279 ISO and .411 ISO this season, and his numbers last season were equally as good. He probably only sees the lefty starter once in this setup, but maybe there is a second AB against a lefty reliever. Either way, he's got a good lineup spot and plenty of upside. 

Chase Meidroth (2B, CWS) & Randal Grichuk (OF, CWS) 

Analysis: Messick has had an incredible season, but these two fellas have destroyed left-handed pitching this year. Grichuk owns an absurd .327 ISO and .429 wOBA against lefties, while Meidroth is at .242 ISO and .439 wOBA. Messick is dominant, but the White Sox match up well. 

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Primary Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers vs JR Ritchie (ATL RHP)

Targets: Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Max Muncy, Kyle Tucker 

Primary Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs Robie Ray (SD LHP)

Targets: Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, Jake Bauers, Brice Turang, Joey Ortiz

“Contrarian” Stack: Tampa Bay Rays vs Gerrit Cole (NYY RHP)

Targets: Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, Liam Hicks, Chandler Simpson 

“Contrarian” Stack: Chicago White Sox vs Parker Messick (CLE LHP)

Targets: Miguel Vargas, Chase Meidroth, Randal Grichuk, Munetaka Murakami, Tommy Pham 

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters & Pitchers

The foundation for every MLB DFS lineup you build today. These are the core MLB DFS picks by position across DraftKings and FanDuel.

  1. Jacob Misiorowski (SP1)
  2. Gerrit Cole (SP2)
  3. Shohei Ohtani (Core Bat)
  4. Jackson Chourio (Core Bat)
  5. Max Muncy (Core Bat) 
  6. Will Smith (Core Value Bat)
  7. Jonathan Aranda (Core Value Bat)

Player Pool

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Stacks

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