Welcome to Fantasy Alarm's MLB DFS picks and daily fantasy playbook for Friday, July 3rd. Our MLB DFS projections combine advanced pitching metrics, platoon splits, strikeout prop data, and ownership positioning to identify the sharpest plays on every slate. Whether you are targeting DFS projections, running lineups through our DFS optimizer, tracking ownership trends, or checking confirmed lineups, Fantasy Alarm has the tools to sharpen your edge. 

Today's 11-game main slate has multiple different directions to go considering we have it's hot everywhere else around the country. We also have both Coors Field and Sutter Health Field. This MLB DFS playbook covers every key position on DraftKings and FanDuel with our best MLB DFS picks for today.

Slate: 11-Games | Lock Time: 7:05 pm ET, Friday, July 3rd, 2026

Vegas Totals: SF/COL (highest-projected game), MIA/ATH (second-highest game total), MIN/NYY - BAL/CIN (tied third-highest game total)

Highest K-Projections: Dylan Cease 8.5 O/U (+115), Reid Detmers 6.5 O/U (-146), Shohei Ohtani 6.5 O/U (-144), Gavin Williams 6.5 O/U (+122)

MLB Weather Today, 7/3

Twins vs Yankees - There is some rain in the forecast that could cause a delay, but we shouldn't be worried overall. It's really warm and that's good for bats.

White Sox vs Guardians - Real chance for a delay with how much rain is potentially going to hit the stadium.

Orioles vs Reds - There is a chance that the rain hits the stadium, but it's a small chance. It's warm and it's Great American Ballpark.

Marlins vs Athletics - There are very warm temperatures and winds blowing out at 10 MPH.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

MLB DFS Top Pitchers

Shohei Ohtani (LAD)

Analysis: The matchup against the division-rival San Diego Padres presents a massive advantage for the right-hander. While San Diego features prominent names in the lineup, they have completely bottomed out against right-handed pitching this season, ranking 26th or worse across Major League Baseball in team OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against righties. Ohtani has a sub-2 ERA and 27.5% K-rate this year.

Dylan Cease (TOR)

Analysis: Cease is coming off a dominant June run where he notched a blistering 36:14 K:BB ratio over 21.1 innings, including a 10-strikeout performance in his last start against the Rangers. He gets a significant park-factor boost traveling to T-Mobile Park, a notorious pitcher’s haven that has suppressed offensive production all year, ranking a dismal 23rd per baseball savant. Facing a slumping, high-strikeout Mariners offense in a pitcher's paradise, Cease provides the elite safety blanket and tournament-winning ceiling required to anchor your pitching slots.

Gavin Williams (CLE)

Analysis: The thing we love about Williams in DFS is his elite swing-and-miss arsenal; he has racked up 117 strikeouts over 101.2 innings pitched, wielding a high-octane 28.3% strikeout rate that ranks as the third-highest mark among all available arms on today's slate. The structural environment for Williams couldn't look much better. He remains at Progressive Field, where he has been dominant all year, flashing a stellar 4-1 record and a 2.74 ERA in his 8 home games. The White Sox have been heavily prone to empty trips at the plate all season, striking out at a high 23.4% clip against right-handed pitching. 

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Reid Detmers (LAA)

Analysis: Detmers has hit the ground running with an elite floor, eclipsing 20+ DraftKings Points (DKP) in four of his last five starts and clearing 18+ DKP in six of his last seven outings. On a slate with several high-priced options, Detmers brings an elite 27.1% strikeout rate to the table—marking the fourth-highest punchout percentage of any pitcher on the entire slate.

The underlying metrics suggest this recent surge is entirely sustainable. Over his last 7 starts, Detmers has pitched to a blistering 2.42 ERA and an microscopic 0.78 WHIP, racking up 51 strikeouts over 44.2 innings.

Jake Bennett (BOS)

Analysis: Through his first six Major League outings, Bennett has delivered a sharp 3.27 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across 33.0 innings. He is currently riding back-to-back quality starts, including a superb 6.1-inning performance against the Yankees and a season-high 9-strikeout gem. Armed with an elite 25:7 K:BB ratio thus far this season, too. The advantage in this matchup against the Los Angeles Angels is glaring as the Angels have consistently been bad facing left-handed pitching, striking out at a massive 25.1% clip against southpaws, which is the 4th-highest mark in Major League Baseball. Furthermore, their lack of punch is highlighted by a below-average 99 wRC+ against lefties, showing they struggle to generate run-scoring rallies even when they do make contact.

Anthony Kay (CWS)

Analysis: The macro setup for Kay in this assignment couldn't be more favorable. He draws a Cleveland Guardians offense that has been completely neutralized by left-handed pitching all season long. Cleveland has bottomed out near the cellar of the league against southpaws, ranking 26th or worse across MLB in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. Because the Guardians heavily struggle to generate power or string together hard-hit rallies against lefties, Kay possesses an incredibly sturdy point-per-dollar floor.

Top Options For Strikeouts

K-prop lines and value ratings are incorporated below for DFS and prop context. These are the arms building the highest strikeout ceilings on the 9-game slate.

Our model identifies these arms as the highest-ceiling plays for Alt-K lines today:

Dylan Cease: 36.7% K% (13.8 K/9)

Kyle Harrison: 31.1% K% (11.2 K/9)

Gavin Williams: 28.3% K% (10.4 K/9) 

Reid Detmers: 27.6% K% (10.1 K/9)

Christian Scott: 27% K% (10.6 K/9)

Best Odds For A Win

The following MLB DFS picks offer a combination of favorable win odds, sustainable ERA and xFIP metrics, and soft opponent matchups. Each carries K-prop lines worth noting alongside their DFS value at reduced ownership relative to the top tier.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

MLB DFS Top Hitters

Juan Soto (OF, NYM)

Analysis: Lefties are killing Grant Holmes this year to the tune of a .182 ISO, .210 xISO, and .357 xwOBA. Soto is one of the league's premier hitters and is completely unowned.

Pete Alonso (1B, BAL) & Gunnar Henderson (SS, BAL)

Analysis: Any and all Orioles plays in Cincy look fantastic today against Brady Singer. The weather is good here and both splits have .200+ ISOs against Brady Singer. Both Alonso and Henderson have at least .170 ISOs or better vs. RHP this year.

Sal Stewart (1B/3B, CIN)

Analysis: The Reds destroy left-handed pitching. Stewart has .244 ISO, .271 xISO, .389 wOBA, and .380 xwOBA against southpaws this year. Rogers is pitching well right now but right-handers still have a .174 ISO, .180 xISO, and .348 wOBA on the year.

Casey Schmitt (SS/OF, SF), Rafael Devers & Bryce Eldridge (1B, SF)

Analysis: Not being able to play Devers and Eldridge on DK together is annoying but it is what it is. Feltner has struggled with both righties and lefties and the Coors Field bump make the Giants an elite option.

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Samuel Basallo (C, BAL)

Analysis: Basallo has a .239 ISO and ,250 xISO against right-handed hurlers this year and faces Brady Singer who has allowed a .241 ISO, .227 xISO, and .392 wOBA. Great value.

Henry Bolte (OF, ATH)

Analysis: Elite value in arguably the best ballpark on the slate. There's ELITE wind as well.

Noelvi Marte (OF, CIN)

Analysis: Marte keeps on hitting. He's been fantastic against lefties this year but it's a SMALL sample. Marte has a .346 ISO and .250 xISO. You're looking for the home run here against Trevor Rogers.

Victor Bericoto (OF, SF) 

Analysis: Bericoto has been awesome this year, especially in the power department. He's hit four home runs in 19 games and has a .641 SLG%, .333 ISO, and is a 164 wRC+ player.

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Primary Stack: San Francisco Giants vs Ryan Feltner (COL RHP)

Targets: Casey Schmitt, Rafael Devers, Bryce Eldridge, Victor Bericoto, Jung Hoo Lee, Drew Cavanaugh

Primary Stack: Cincinnati Reds vs Trevor Rogers (BAL LHP)

Targets: Sal Stewart. Spencer Steer, Elly De La Cruz, Eugenio Suarez, Noelvi Marte

Primary Stack: Athletics vs Tyler Phillips (MIA RHP)

Targets: Shea Langeliers, Nick Kurtz, Henry Bolte, Max Muncy, Jonah Heim, Lawrence Butler

"Contrarian" Stack: Baltimore Orioles vs Brady Singer (CIN RHP)

Targets: Pete Alonso, Gunnar Henderson, Samuel Basallo, Colton Cowser, Taylor Ward, Adley Rutschman

"Contrarian" Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs Jose Cabrera (ARI RHP)

Targets: Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich, Jake Bauers, David Hamilton, Brice Turang

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters & Pitchers

The "Chalk" (Popular)

The "Pivot" (Low

Owned)

The Winning Logic
Detmers (SP, chalk)Bennett (SP, lower owned)Elite spot for Bennett who misses a good amount of bats.
Yankees (Chalk)Orioles (pivot stack)The Yankees bats are really, really bad.
Dominguez + Grisham (chalk)Langeliers + Bolte (lower owned)Low-owned Athletics look really good

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The foundation for every MLB DFS lineup you build today. These are the core MLB DFS picks by position across DraftKings and FanDuel.

  1. Dylan Cease (SP1)
  2. Reid Detmers (SP2)
  3. Pete Alonso (Core Bat)
  4. Casey Schmitt (Core Bat)
  5. Bryce Eldridge (Core Bat)
  6. Noelvi Marte (Core Value Bat)
  7. Victor Bericoto (Core Value Bat)

Player Pool

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Stacks

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