With only a handful of days left in the season, this article will focus much more on closers for 2020 than for 2019. If you still need saves this season, Daniel Hudson has four in the last 10 days. Erik Swanson has two saves in the last week for Seattle, and he would be interesting if he remains in the bullpen next season. Swanson has a 7.56 ERA as a starter this season but a 3.57 ERA as a reliever. Overall, he has a 4.33 B/BB, and he has a 29.4% strikeout rate as a reliever.
Brad Hand pitched Saturday for the first time in nearly two weeks and promptly struck out the side. My guess is he will get Cleveland’s next save chance, but it’s just a guess. If you’re really desperate for saves, Justin Wilson has three in the last two weeks, mostly working when Seth Lugo is unavailable.
Is it possible for Craig Kimbrel to go from unplayable in September to underrated in March? I think there’s a solid chance. Kimbrel is still striking people out, and there is an argument to be made that he’ll benefit from a full Spring Training as opposed to signing in June. It’s nearly impossible to see him losing his job next season, though I suppose it is possible he simply struggles all season and limps his way to 25 saves, a la Edwin Díaz in 2019.
If you’re looking for the glass half full case for Kimbrel, it’s that his .279 BABIP was his highest since 2011, and his 36.0% HR/FB rate is nearly three times higher than his previous career-high of 13.6% in 2015. Not only that, but it’s wise not to draw too many conclusions from 20.2 innings. We have nine years of evidence of him being a good closer, and while his elite days are likely behind him, I would probably take the Over on 30 saves. If the baseball returns to any semblance of what it used to be, Kimbrel, like a lot of closers, could benefit quite a bit.
The aforementioned Diaz could be another pitcher to benefit. Like Kimbrel, Diaz suffered from career-highs in BABIP allowed and HR/FB rate. Unlike Kimbrel, Diaz cut down on his walks down the stretch to have a respectable 4.41 K/BB rate, very close to his career average. Diaz also picked a bad time to have the lowest GB% of his professional career. Diaz is certainly riskier than we realized a year ago at this time, but I think he’s still one of the best relievers in baseball.
I’ve always been a believer in waiting on relievers for fantasy, and with the state of the baseball in 2019, it is more important than ever. I think one of the biggest challenges heading into fantasy drafts next year will be convincing ourselves that players like Kirby Yates and Roberto Ozuna are not as safe as we might think. I don’t believe Yates is Blake Treinen , but are we sure he isn’t Edwin Díaz ? Yates finished 2018 strong and was exactly as good as we hoped in 2019, but I don’t think we should assume we will get more of the same in 2020.
I will almost certainly have a lot of shares of Ken Giles again in 2020. He was one of my bounce back candidates before the season, and all he did was post the best strikeout rate of his career and a 4.65 K/BB rate. He likely won’t be a Blue Jay next season, which is probably a good thing after he only earned 21 saves. Unless he winds up with the Yankees or Cubs, he’ll likely close, and I’ll target him as someone who’s relatively safe but probably won’t have a big price tag.
I’ll be interested to see if Ian Kennedy gets a chance to close next season, either with the Royals or some other team hoping to catch cheap lightning in a bottle. Kennedy is pretty old and mediocre to suddenly have a long second act as a reliever, but if his career-high groundball rate and strikeout rate are sustainable, he has a chance. Perhaps the craziest part of Kennedy’s 30-save season is he allowed a career-high .345 BABIP, but also had the third-highest LOB% of his career. I doubt he’ll cost very much, and if he has a clear path to saves in March, I’ll probably take a shot.
The other closer I will keep a close eye on in Spring Training is Taylor Rogers . I loved Rogers going into the season for Saves+Holds leagues, and while it took a couple of months for him to work his way into regular saves, he was one of the best closers in fantasy from June on. My feeling is the Twins want a righty to get most of the saves, just like the Brewers do, but there is a decent chance Rogers is so good he takes the job from Day One and never gives it back.