I was lying in our camper at 10 pm, deep in the woods, slowly falling asleep when all of a sudden our air conditioner just stopped. As a matter of fact, I suddenly found myself in the middle of the woods in total blackness with a pregnant wife. I used to read a lot of horror novels. Not the wimpy Stephen King variety, more like the Brian Keene and Richard Laymon variety. Books filled with creatures in the woods and supernatural entities seeking world dominance or just plain old zombies eating people. I can deal with zombies, but what does scare the shit out of me is the thought of some redneck family eating me and my wife. We would, after all, make quite the meal between the two of us. In the end, the thing that got us up and stirring was the heat and humidity. Within minutes of the A/C stopping, the sweat started. We decided to just pack up and go home to watch Netflix (Stranger Things).
We lost our power at home as well so here I am in my office at 7 am on a Sunday just getting this started. I am about three hours behind so I am skipping the weather report today.
So with little Eskimos building igloos in my air conditioner here in my office and with a fresh Iced Coffee I bring you today’s Pitching Coach Article.
The Real Jerry Colvin amateur Weather Report
OK, so I am not a real weather man. I simply go the National Weather Forecast and spend a few minutes looking over the map. I check for rain location, temperatures, and dew points. Focusing on the areas where there will be MLB. It is just scratching 4 a.m. as I write this so please understand that the weather changes. Quickly at times. I would only use my forecast for a quick glance to make myself aware of where baseballs can fly or die and weather could kill your night. Just understand, I am not doing anything here that no one else could do but glance at a weather page. I am doing this just as a courtesy to provide the best content possible while trying to give you the heads up for your day. Weather is more important when it comes to pitching than hitting. Fact.
Today’s Forecast
This will return next week. But, it is basically the same at a quick glance as yesterday although slightly cooler. It is still hot and humid, and we still have a huge green band in the same location. But at this time I see nothing that should hamper game play. Still, keep a close eye on it.
Want MLB weather dates? Tune into the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 4-to-6 p.m. Monday-Friday, hosted by Jeff Mans and Ted Schuster. Also follow our weather updates on Twitter @MLBDailyWeather.
Afternoon Slate
So I think FanDuel and DraftKings finally read my articles and started putting the same games in their slates. Good job fellas. We have lots of good starting pitching going today but not a lot in the way of value.
Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox (Cash, GPP, you name it)
Sale today gets a great park shift pitching at Marlins Park which is 24th in runs scored in MLB and is a -121 favorite (which seems low) pitching in a game with an expected run total of 7.0. The Marlins are striking out 21.6 percent of the time with a decent .329 wOBA versus LHP on the season. At home their wOBA drops to .309 with a wRC+ of 90 lessening the blow. Sale over his last two starts versus the struggling Royals and mighty Tigers on the road has 17 strikeouts over his last 17 innings with a 3.00 ERA. On the road he has a 2.28 ERA versus his home 4.55 ERA so the park shift is definitely in play today here. Anytime you have a strikeout pitcher like Sale with a K/9 of 8.77 facing a team who strikes out more than 20 percent of the time you have the potential to strike fantasy gold, the problem is at his price you will pay for that gold. Just keep in mind we have some good pitchers that are much cheaper in good matchups today which should drive Sales ownership down at this exuberant price tag.
Danger Zone
The BVP here is little with the current Marlins roster batting .259 (7-for-27) with zero HR, three RBI, and nine strikeouts. Obviously you have a few good RHB to worry about here but with a weak lineup around them and a struggling Marcell Ozuna (batting .050 over the last seven days) I see no way Sale does not handle them today.
Steven Matz, New York Mets (Cash, GPP)
With so many good options today Steven Matz could be a semi-sneaky play. You see, most of the DFS players who do this for a living know the Padres and Brewers although offering huge strikeout upside can both hit LHP and are much more dangerous than they appear. Today Matz is a -174 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of 8.5. He gets a great park shift at home in Citi Field where his ERA is over a half of run lower. The Padres strikeout 24.2 percent of the time versus LHP but do carry a dangerous .333 wOBA and productive wRC+ of 110. On the road the Padres only carry a .302 wOBA and are batting a pathetic .180 with a wRC+ of 65 over the last seven days. Matz is a groundball pitcher (54-percent) in a big park with a K/9 of 8.71 all of which make my wallet smile. Outside of his start on Aug. 3rd versus the Yankees where he allowed six earned runs, he has 20 strikeouts over 18 innings versus the Marlins on the road and Diamondbacks and Rockies at home allowing only four earned runs total. His price is reasonable across the industry and I fully expect the Padres to get the Matz today.
Danger Zone
The BVP is basically zero (two AB) so no luck there. Here is the thing that benefits him today, Matz has reverse splits, LHB have a .321 wOBA and RHB have a .308 wOBA.
Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays (FD GPP, DK and Aces Cash)
Speaking to my immaturity, every time I think of Jake Odorizzi I think of them things you put in your shoes to make them smell nice, odor eaters. Well, today Jake is going to odor eater the Yankees. Although he does not get a great park shift at Yankee stadium he is a slight -102 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of 8.5. The Yankees are letting the rookies play, so today will be interesting. As a team the Yankees are only striking out 19.4 percent of the time with a low .308 wOBA versus RHP on the season. At home the wOBA elevates slightly to .318 and they are batting a crisp .267 over the last seven days. To be honest the marginal line for batting average over the last seven days is .259 in MLB due to hot and humid weather across the country so the .269 average does not scare me much. With some young blood playing in the lineup the strikeout totals could be elevated today and Odorizzi has an 8.24 K/9. At this time, I believe Jake is trying to take over the “from State Farm” moniker, as over his last two starts versus the Blue Jays on the road and Royals (my condolences to the Rally Mantis) at home he has 10 strikeouts over his last 11 1/3 innings with a 1.59 ERA. If he can handle the Blue Jays on the road, why not the pathetic Yankees? Plus, he is fair priced and makes a great SP2 on two-pitcher sites to be paired with one of the guys above.
Danger Zone
Besides the fact he is a fly ball pitcher pitching in Yankee stadium, we have a ton of BVP here, the current Yankees are 36-for-144 with six HR (Brian McCann (3), Mark Texeira, Brett Gardner, and Starlin Castro), 19 RBI, and 32 strikeouts versus Jake. RHB also carry a .346 wOBA and for some reason Starlin Castro scares the crap out of me today. Just saying.
Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals (FD Cash, DK and Aces GPP)
I told you we had plenty of options today which is why I find with no Coors Field game it is prudent to spend for pitching. It is the kind of day you look for value at second base, catcher, and perhaps an OF slot. If you can find a few minimum or near minimum priced players or an underpriced player that fits your lineup this is how you do it. There is so many pitchers that can have great days today that if they do, and you go cheap and bomb, you’re done.
The Atlanta Braves are striking out 18.7 percent of the time with a .308 wOBA and wRC+ of 91 versus RHP on the season. Roark over his last three starts has been virtually unhittable striking out 14 batters over this last 20 1/3 innings with a 1.77 ERA versus the Giants (twice) and Diamondbacks on the road. He gets a great park shift at home today in Nationals Park where he is a -212 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of 8.5. He has a 2.54 home ERA and keeps the ball on the ground 53.4 percent of the time, both which I prefer over McDonalds. His price on DK and Aces is a bit high but on FanDuel he is a steal.
Danger Zone
The reason he is down here and not up there is this. The current Braves are batting .330 (31-for-94) with six HR (Matt Kemp (2) my man, A.J. Pierzynski (2), Anthony Recker, and Nick Markakis), 14 RBI, and 17 strikeouts versus Roark. He also has slight reverse splits, LHB have a .254 wOBA versus the RHB having 312. Still, at home, he should handle the Braves easily.
Tyler Chatwood, Colorado Rockies (GPP)
I have never taken back-to-back Rockies pitchers in my articles until today. As a matter of fact, in two seasons of writing for Fantasy Alarm I would be willing to bet the total times I have recommended a Rockies pitcher is less than 10 for sure, maybe lower.
Tyler Chatwood gets a great park shift pitching at Citizens Bank Park today which is 28th in MLB in runs scored. At home he has a 5.43 ERA and on the road he has a 1.30 ERA so you can clearly see park shift is a major factor here. He is also a slight -123 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of 9.0. The Phillies are striking out 21.7 percent of the time with a low .308 wOBA versus RHP on the season. At home they are dead last in MLB in both wRC+ at 72 and wOBA at a pathetic .284. Chatwood has had his struggles as of late surrendering six earned runs over 12 2/3 innings versus the Rangers and red hot Dodgers on the road. He did however strikeout 14 batters in this span. I do not see the Phillies repeating yesterday and am going back to the well with Chatwood today.
Danger Zone
It’s not much but the current Phillies are batting .286 (10-for-35) with no HR, six RBI, and five strikeouts versus Chatwood. He also has a 3.58 ERA and a 4.41 xFIP which always raises a red flag.
Not much for cheapies but if I was going to throw a few dollars on a minimum salary guy, on DraftKings Tyrell Jenkins is only $4,100 where over 60 batters cost more than he does. Sometimes the Nationals flop versus RHP. Why not today? In a cheap GPP he will be the one guy I use, with low expectations.
| vs L | vs R | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | H | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA | wOBA | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | R | BOS | 115.1 | 7.57 | 1.72 | 1.01 | .251 | 11.9% | 3.67 | 3.6 | 1.15 | .287 | 48.7% | 29.6% | 1.65 | 0.320 | 0.280 | $9600 | $9200 | $7550 |
| Tyrell Jenkins | ATL | R | WSH | 41.1 | 4.36 | 5.66 | 1.52 | .250 | 7.1% | 3.92 | 5.73 | 1.57 | .240 | 54.1% | 27.4% | 1.97 | 0.347 | 0.366 | $6300 | $4100 | $6150 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | R | ARI | 151 | 7.45 | 1.55 | 1.01 | .239 | 8.2% | 3.4 | 3.85 | 1.08 | .276 | 46.3% | 33.8% | 1.37 | 0.278 | 0.319 | $9400 | $11400 | $6500 |
| Cody Reed | CIN | L | MIL | 46.2 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 2.12 | .316 | 10.7% | 6.36 | 4.07 | 1.67 | .347 | 55.5% | 22.6% | 2.46 | 0.350 | 0.406 | $5700 | $4000 | $5700 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | R | LAA | 125.1 | 7.97 | 3.59 | 0.86 | .241 | 10.1% | 3.88 | 4.18 | 1.32 | .281 | 49.9% | 28.8% | 1.73 | 0.305 | 0.302 | $8000 | $7700 | $6500 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | R | PHI | 123.1 | 6.13 | 3.79 | 0.66 | .247 | 8.3% | 3.58 | 4.41 | 1.35 | .280 | 58.2% | 23.5% | 2.48 | 0.304 | 0.318 | $7100 | $8900 | $6450 |
| Chris Sale | CWS | L | MIA | 154 | 8.77 | 1.87 | 1.05 | .220 | 11.4% | 3.16 | 3.62 | 1.03 | .264 | 41.5% | 35.6% | 1.16 | 0.278 | 0.277 | $10500 | $12000 | $8150 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | R | TEX | 111 | 7.62 | 2.51 | 0.81 | .214 | 11.6% | 2.43 | 3.79 | 1.06 | .250 | 53.5% | 28.1% | 1.91 | 0.260 | 0.296 | $8000 | $8000 | $6550 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | R | TOR | 121 | 6.62 | 2.08 | 1.49 | .278 | 9.7% | 4.46 | 4.38 | 1.33 | .302 | 42.9% | 31.4% | 1.36 | 0.321 | 0.362 | $7700 | $7900 | $6900 |
| Edinson Volquez | KC | R | MIN | 141.1 | 6.62 | 3.31 | 1.02 | .280 | 9.2% | 5.03 | 4.35 | 1.48 | .312 | 55.4% | 24.2% | 2.29 | 0.344 | 0.325 | $7100 | $4200 | $6200 |
| Jered Weaver | LAA | R | CLE | 128.1 | 4.7 | 2.31 | 1.75 | .303 | 8.6% | 5.19 | 5.5 | 1.47 | .301 | 30.1% | 45.0% | 0.67 | 0.361 | 0.376 | $6200 | $4000 | $5600 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | R | CWS | 127 | 7.23 | 3.83 | 0.71 | .251 | 10.5% | 3.83 | 4.72 | 1.4 | .292 | 44.0% | 31.1% | 1.41 | 0.322 | 0.306 | $7500 | $8600 | $6750 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | R | CIN | 72 | 6 | 3.63 | 1.5 | .348 | 8.0% | 6.38 | 4.8 | 1.82 | .366 | 53.5% | 22.9% | 2.34 | 0.389 | 0.437 | $5900 | $4400 | $6000 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | L | KC | 130.3 | 6.97 | 4.12 | 1.58 | .286 | 9.7% | 6.97 | 4.53 | 2.79 | .257 | 41.7% | 44.2% | 0.94 | 0.318 | 0.331 | $8000 | $7000 | $6200 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | L | SD | 125 | 8.71 | 1.94 | 1.01 | .267 | 10.5% | 3.6 | 3.38 | 1.26 | .321 | 54.0% | 24.9% | 2.16 | 0.321 | 0.308 | $9600 | $8800 | $7100 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | R | TB | 47.2 | 7.55 | 2.27 | 1.51 | .291 | 9.1% | 6.42 | 3.95 | 1.47 | .331 | 51.0% | 26.1% | 1.95 | 0.323 | 0.395 | $6700 | $6500 | $5950 |
| Adam Morgan | PHI | L | COL | 66.1 | 7.6 | 1.76 | 2.17 | .321 | 11.4% | 6.65 | 4.48 | 1.6 | .343 | 38.8% | 37.0% | 1.05 | 0.345 | 0.415 | $5500 | $4000 | $5650 |
| Clayton Richard | SD | L | NYM | 15.1 | 20.25 | 3.52 | 0.00 | .286 | 7.5% | 6.75 | 5.03 | 5.14 | .403 | 74.6% | 13.6% | 5.5 | 0.387 | 0.369 | $5500 | $4000 | $4750 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TB | R | NYY | 136.2 | 8.24 | 2.5 | 1.25 | .245 | 10.8% | 3.69 | 4.05 | 1.22 | .281 | 38.5% | 40.1% | 0.96 | 0.256 | 0.346 | $8700 | $8200 | $6700 |
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | R | DET | 78 | 7.5 | 3.58 | 1.62 | .237 | 9.2% | 4.39 | 4.72 | 1.28 | .257 | 34.8% | 43.9% | 0.79 | 0.395 | 0.262 | $7100 | $6100 | $5900 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | R | HOU | 147.1 | 7.21 | 2.32 | 1.04 | .269 | 9.8% | 4.77 | 3.55 | 1.31 | .311 | 62.2% | 17.6% | 3.54 | 0.343 | 0.305 | $7500 | $9000 | $7300 |
| Tanner Roark | WSH | R | ATL | 150 | 7.44 | 2.7 | 0.66 | .236 | 9.5% | 2.88 | 3.9 | 1.17 | .282 | 53.4% | 28.5% | 1.88 | 0.254 | 0.312 | $8900 | $9800 | $6600 |
Night Slate
My first piece of advice is not to play this crap slate. But, if you are like me, and cannot help yourself, time for a DFS lesson. Every once and awhile you just have to accept that you probably are not going to have a good night with pitching. Tonight is that night. There is no standout play, no one SP that is safe, and they all are likely to get blown up. So today, spend on bats and try to find a pitcher that does not end up giving you a negative score. I am going to give you a rundown pitcher by pitcher today for this slate instead of the usual write up. Really, play some cheap GPPs, that is it.
First off you have Wade LeBlanc facing the Oakland Athletics in Oakland. Although the park shift is favorable and the A’s can be pushovers at times, RHB have a .379 wOBA versus him. I honestly believe Khris Davis, Danny Valencia, and perhaps Marcus Semien are going to pound him into oblivion. I will have no exposure here.
Using RHP Zach Neal facing the Mariners is like putting four bullets in a gun and playing Russian Roulette. LHB have a .357 wOBA versus Neal and guys like, oh, let’s say Robinson Cano, Seth Smith, and Kyler Seager (remember him?) all look like they are going to have good nights. I will be avoiding him as well as I see a possible negative.
Wade Miley is in SF tonight so he gets a great park shift facing a Giants team that barely strikes out, but, has had its struggles. Being that there is no cash game play tonight, due to park shift, and my confidence that by nights’ end Miley will net you some fantasy points, he is playable. Keep in mind RHB have a .352 wOBA and Buster Posey used to at least feast on LHP. He is as good as any to use tonight.
Johnny Cueto has been crap lately. He has allowed nine earned runs over his last 12 2/3 innings but he does have a 2.63 home ERA. The problem is the Baltimore Orioles are second in MLB in wOBA at a whopping .344 versus RHP. They do however strikeout 21.7 percent of the time as well. Cueto offers strikeout upside but with recent struggles facing much lesser teams (them nine earned runs were versus the Phillies and Marlins) I am avoiding him as well. Why spend so much to get blown up?
Chad Kuhl is taking the mound versus the hottest hitting team right now in MLB, my Dodgers. The Dodgers are striking out over 20 percent of the time versus RHP but Kuhl is not striking out many batters with his 6.04 K/9. FIY, the Dodgers are also batting a whopping .326 with a wRC+ of 154 over the last seven days. As scary as it sounds, for the price and equal risk across the board, Kuhl could be a cool play.
Brett Anderson is back, and he is in play. The Pirates are fourth in MLB in wOBA versus LHP at a whopping .345 but they do strikeout 22.9 percent of the time. On the positive they are only batting .229 over the last seven and Starling Marte left last night with back discomfort I believe so that means he surely will rest today. This is by no means safe, but he is cheap, and with nothing to choose from, I will use Anderson somewhere and keep my fingers crossed.
Mike Leake is facing the Cubs who have seven HR off of him, all the usual suspects. Complete fade here.
John Lackey, now, if I was to attack the Cardinals who strikeout 20.6 percent of the time with a high .339 wOBA versus RHP, Lackey would get some consideration pitching in Wrigley Field. Lackey has a 2.67 home ERA this season and if there was one guy I was going to try and play a cash game with, it would be Lackey. He would be the player I pair tonight with someone on two-pitcher sites and my first choice on FanDuel.
| vs L | vs R | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | H | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA | wOBA | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| Wade Miley | BAL | L | SF | 123 | 5.72 | 2.63 | 1.39 | .311 | 9.2% | 4.91 | 4.25 | 2.89 | .299 | 49.3% | 30.2% | 1.63 | 0.305 | 0.352 | $7000 | $7500 | $6250 |
| John Lackey | CHI | R | STL | 151.2 | 8.96 | 2.43 | 1.13 | .219 | 12.6% | 3.56 | 3.68 | 1.06 | .254 | 41.9% | 32.8% | 1.28 | 0.313 | 0.263 | $8900 | $10900 | $7400 |
| Brett Anderson | LA | L | PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $6800 | $7400 | $5600 |
| Zach Neal | OAK | R | SEA | 29.1 | 3.38 | 0.31 | 1.53 | .272 | 11.5% | 4.6 | 4.02 | 1.09 | .265 | 56.4% | 27.7% | 2.04 | 0.357 | 0.281 | $5600 | $4000 | $5700 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | R | LA | 25.1 | 6.04 | 3.2 | 0.71 | .258 | 8.1% | 3.91 | 4.97 | 1.3 | .286 | 37.2% | 41.0% | 0.91 | 0.398 | 0.226 | $6000 | $6600 | $6250 |
| Wade LeBlanc | SEA | L | OAK | 36.1 | 6.19 | 1.98 | 2.23 | .274 | 7.9% | 4.71 | 4.5 | 1.32 | .277 | 37.6% | 43.6% | 0.86 | 0.323 | 0.379 | $6200 | $6100 | $5800 |
| Johnny Cueto | SF | R | BAL | 160 | 8.22 | 1.74 | 0.68 | .235 | 10.5% | 2.93 | 3.42 | 1.08 | .286 | 52.0% | 27.8% | 1.87 | 0.300 | 0.258 | $10400 | $11100 | $7600 |
| Mike Leake | STL | R | CHI | 139 | 6.22 | 1.36 | 1.17 | .283 | 7.6% | 4.79 | 3.88 | 1.28 | .303 | 55.1% | 24.2% | 2.28 | 0.327 | 0.328 | $6700 | $4200 | $5900 |
Once again, play light on this slate.
Good luck today. Check your catchers if they played last night.
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