Robert Gasser Chalkboard MLB Picks Today, 6/16: Baseball Projections + More

Tuesday's board is loaded, and our MLB DFS Projections have two starting pitchers sitting in premium high-leverage positions for your Chalkboard cards tonight. We are running our best free analysis on each matchup below. For the complete model breakdown and daily tracking strategy, head over to the Fantasy Alarm Bet Tracker.

Davis Martin MLB Chalkboard Fantasy Pick: Higher than 5.5 Strikeouts

Davis Martin is the top strikeout Higher on the Chalkboard board tonight. Yes, his last start against the Twins was bad. Two strikeouts in 4.2 innings is not the norm for him and should not be treated as a signal of things to come. Entering tonight, he carries a 73:17 K:BB ratio across 72.1 innings on the season, and he has struck out at least seven batters in six straight outings in the stretch leading up to that Twins clunker. The season-long body of work from this guy is undeniable.

The metrics behind the strikeout surge are built on real stuff. His slider sits at a 51.2% swing-and-miss rate, fifth highest in all of baseball among qualified pitcher-pitch type combinations. His kick-changeup generates outlier movement and holds hitters to a .161 batting average. That does not go away after one rough outing. Tonight, he gets a Yankees lineup that is playing without its best hitter by a wide margin. Aaron Judge has been on the IL since June 2 with a stress fracture of the first rib and is not expected back until August at the earliest. The Yankees are 14 games under .500 without Judge since 2022, and the lineup that takes the field tonight is built for exploitation. Our MLB DFS Projections are firmly on the Higher.

Robert Gasser MLB Chalkboard Fantasy Pick: Higher than 4.5 Strikeouts

The surface-level ERA on Gasser is going to mislead a lot of bettors tonight. His most recent start tells a completely different story than the 6.38 ERA suggests. He went to Las Vegas and struck out seven batters over five innings against the Athletics despite allowing six runs, all in a park that inflates offense to an extreme degree. The strikeout ability is functional. The venue was the problem, not the arm.

Back home in Milwaukee tonight against a Cleveland lineup that has never faced him before in his career, Gasser gets every structural advantage a pitcher can ask for. Pitcher-friendly park. First-time matchup. Full rest. A five-pitch arsenal coming at hitters with a deceptive lefty release, they have zero experience tracking at the big-league level. Our MLB DFS Projections favor him hitting this Higher floor comfortably tonight, and we are fully on board.

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