Joe Ryan Chalkboard MLB Picks Today, 4/28: Baseball Projections + More

Quick Summary of Today’s Top Chalkboard MLB Picks: 

• Joe Ryan (MIN): Over 5.5 Strikeouts
• Shane Baz (BAL): Under 4.5 Strikeouts

The 2026 MLB season is off and rolling. It’s been a fun first week of baseball with plenty of highlights, storylines, and breakout players emerging. Let’s now dive into our Chalkboard MLB Picks Today for Tuesday, April 28th. We’ll dish out a pair of MLB DFS projections to lock in as you enjoy the action. 

Chalkboard Fantasy MLB Picks Today: Tuesday, 4/28

Joe Ryan MLB Chalkboard Fantasy Pick: Over 5.5 Strikeouts

It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster season for Joe Ryan so far. The Minnesota Twins’ right-hander holds a 3.90 ERA and 1.02 WHIP through his first 6 starts. He’s coming off a tough outing where he gave up 7 runs to the Mets. Still, this looks like a good opportunity for Ryan to rebound at home against the Seattle Mariners – especially when it comes to strikeouts. 

Ryan’s advanced and underlying numbers point toward better results ahead, with a 2.98 xERA and 3.22 FIP. While he’s averaging 5.5 strikeouts per start, this matchup sets up for a higher total. The Mariners have a 24.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, the 3rd-highest in the MLB. Over the past week, that number has climbed to 25.3% (4th-highest). 

How about on the road against righties? Seattle has a lofty 27.9% strikeout rate in that split, the 2nd-highest in the league. Pitching at home also works in Ryan’s favor. He’s recorded 7 and 6 strikeouts in his two home starts this season. Last year, he posted a stronger K rate at home (30.0%) than on the road (26.3%). He also averaged 6.6 strikeouts per home start a season ago. 

• Chalkboard MLB Pick: Joe Ryan Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Shane Baz MLB Chalkboard Fantasy Pick: Under 4.5 Strikeouts 

It’s been a shaky start to the season for Shane Baz. The Baltimore Orioles’ right-hander has a 5.08 ERA and 1.55 WHIP over his first 5 outings. He’s allowed 6 hits or more in 4 of his 5 starts thus far. Plus, he’s struck out fewer than 5 batters in 3 of his 5 games. 

Baz now gets a tough matchup against the Houston Astros today. The offense has been among the league’s best against right-handed pitching this season, with a .350 wOBA and 120 wRC+ in the split (both 3rd-highest in MLB). The Astros also have just a 19.5% strikeout rate vs. righties, which is the 3rd-lowest. 

Houston has been slightly better against right-handers over the past week, too. In this stretch, the lineup boasts a .364 wOBA and 129 wRC+ in the split. Plus, the Astros only have a 16.2% strikeout rate vs. righties over the last week of games (2nd-best in MLB).

It’s hard to imagine Baz getting to 5 strikeouts or more in this matchup, even at home. On the road, Houston also boasts a league-low 16.7% K rate with a .351 wOBA (3rd-highest). As noted, Baz has gone under 4.5 strikeouts in 3 of 5 starts. Let’s bank on that trend continuing tonight.

• Chalkboard MLB Pick: Shane Baz Under 4.5 Strikeouts