The 2026 MLB season rolls with another full slate of games. Let’s dive into the MLB Best Bets Today for Tuesday, April 21st. We have all-day baseball on tap and plenty of ways to go for our MLB picks. Enjoy these MLB predictions as you lock in your own bets ahead of today’s games. Note that all odds and betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but are always subject to change. 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 4/21

Our MLB best bets today begin with Shota Imanaga and the Chicago Cubs hosting the Philadelphia Phillies. Plus, our MLB picks feature an interleague matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Texas Rangers. Check out even more MLB predictions below, including some player props and other game picks. Good luck! 

Phillies vs. Cubs Prediction: Tuesday, April 21st

The Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs are headed in opposite directions right now. The Cubs have won 6 straight and are 9-3 over the past 12 games. Meanwhile, the Phillies have lost 6 straight and are just 2-10 over their last 12 contests. Chicago took the series opener over Philly last night as well. 

Let’s back the home squad for our MLB best bets today. The Cubs have a clear pitching edge and the better offensive splits to trust. Maybe the law of averages says the Phillies will bounce back and break their losing streak, but the numbers say differently. 

The Cubs’ starter tonight, Shota Imanaga, has been dominant recently. The left-hander has allowed just 3 earned runs over his past 21 innings pitched. He now owns a 2.45 ERA and 2.17 FIP on the year. His 37.8% strikeout rate (97th MLB percentile) and 6.1% walk rate (82nd) are especially encouraging. 

Imanaga now gets to face an offense that’s struggled mightily against left-handed pitching. In the split this season, the Phillies have a .176 batting average (30th in MLB), .260 wOBA (28th), and 59 wRC+ (30th). Plus, the lineup has been very quiet lately, averaging just 1.7 runs over the past 6 games. Imanaga just faced Philly in his latest outing and allowed only 1 run with 11 strikeouts over 6 strong innings. 

On the other side, Philadelphia starter Jesus Luzardo could run into trouble yet again. The left-hander now has a rough 7.94 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over his first 4 starts. He’s also allowed 5+ runs in 3 of those 4 outings. He just faced the Cubs last time out and got rocked for 9 runs on 12 hits. 

Luzardo probably turns it around soon, but his current form is very fadeable. It won’t get any easier having to deal with the Cubs for the second time in as many starts. The offense is crushing left-handed pitching to the tune of a .353 wOBA (3rd in MLB), 124 wRC+ (3rd), .177 ISO (7th), and .788 OPS (3rd) this season. Plus, Chicago is averaging 7.3 runs over the past 8 games. 

All signs point to the Cubs getting the victory and leading after five innings. We’ll gladly back Imanaga over Luzardo, especially considering those splits against lefties for both lineups. Furthermore, Chicago has the recent bullpen edge. The Cubs’ pen has a 2.96 ERA over the past week (5th in MLB), while Philly’s relievers have a 4.61 ERA in this stretch (15th). 

 

 

 

Pirates vs. Rangers Prediction: Tuesday, April 21st

Let’s continue our MLB best bets today with an interleague matchup. The Pittsburgh Pirates take on the Texas Rangers in what could be a higher-scoring game. The overs for both the first five innings and the full game headline our MLB picks. 

Pirates starter Carmen Mlodzinski owns a stellar 1.77 ERA through 4 starts this year. However, we have a few reasons to fade him tonight. First, the right-hander is likely due for a negative regression, given his 3.57 xFIP and some glaring underlying metrics. His 51.7% hard-hit rate (9th MLB percentile) and 19.6% whiff rate (16th percentile) are worrisome. Plus, he has just average strikeout and walk rates. 

That’s not exactly the profile of a pitcher who can maintain a sub-2.00 ERA moving forward. The inability to miss bats consistently, while getting very hard, can come back to bite Mlodzinski in today’s matchup. The Rangers have a top-10 offense vs. right-handed pitching this year. Over the past week against righties, they boast a .358 wOBA (7th in MLB) and 128 wRC+ (5th). 

As the Rangers put up runs, so too can the Pirates’ hitters in their matchup. Texas starter Kumar Rocker has a 4.30 ERA and 4.63 FIP through 3 starts this year. His strikeout and walk rates are both below average, and his other advanced metrics are underwhelming as well. Notably, Baseballsavant.com rates his Pitching Run Value in the 21st MLB percentile. 

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh also brings in a top-10 offense against right-handed pitching this season. Over the past week, the Pirates have been hammering righties to the tune of a .363 wOBA (3rd in MLB), .814 OPS (4th), and 126 wRC+ (8th) with a 13.5% walk rate (3rd). That ability to draw walks will be key against Rocker, who’s had issues with his command.  

Let’s take the over for the full game and first five innings. Both offenses can set the tone for a higher-scoring contest than the oddsmakers suggest. 

Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 4/21