Welcome to tonight’s MLB best bets for this slate of MLB action here at Fantasy Alarm on this Friday, July 4th, 2025! After going a perfect 6-0 on the Wednesday bets, I was champing at the bit to get after this jam-packed Friday slate! What better way to celebrate the 4th of July than to stack up some more money for all of you as the season-long bankroll now sits at +31 units! Good luck to all, and be safe with your fireworks. Have a great holiday weekend, all of you!

In this MLB Best Bets Today article, you will find a wide array of choices from some Money Lines to game totals and, on occasion, some player props! Check out the rationale and if you agree with me, make sure to tail and good luck!

Now, let's dive into my expert MLB Best Bets today!

  • Season Record: 176-115-5
  • Bankroll: +31.3 units

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MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 7/4

Rangers vs. Padres Predictions

It's an interleague matchup today as the Rangers and Padres are set to square off, and it looks to be a bit of a mismatch. Texas is due to send out their youngster Kumar Rocker, and while he’s been more consistent of late, he still hasn’t figured out how to pitch against lefties or pitch on the road. How does that affect betting on this game? Let’s dive into it!

Rocker has now pitched 39.2 innings in the majors, and through 16.2 of those innings, he’s had an 11.34 ERA on the road. That number includes 30 hits allowed and 10 walks during that time, so the Padres' bats will be on base often, even if they aren’t scoring a ton of runs. That puts the lefties in the San Diego offense on my radar today, and there are a few to choose from, but I want to lay my money behind Jackson Merrill, who has been great against right-handed pitchers all season with a .299 average and .799 OPS. Merrill will be hitting 2nd in the lineup in between Tatis Jr. and Machado as well, so lots of chances to go over his hits/runs/RBIs prop tonight. 

In addition to the prop, I like the Padres to win this game on the Money Line. Texas has been inconsistent for weeks now and is 17-25 on the road this season, while the Padres remain one of the best home teams in MLB. The line is a puzzler as well at -110, so I won’t overthink this and take the even odds for the win!

Pick: Jackson Merrill (SD) Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-150 on DraftKings)

Pick: Padres Money Line (-110 on DraftKings)

 

 


 

Best MLB Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 7/4

Pick: Yankees & Mets Over 9.5 Runs (-110 on DraftKings)

Pick: Pirates & Mariners Under 7.5 Runs (-120 on DraftKings)

Pick: Blue Jays Run Line -1.5 (+110 on DraftKings)

Pick: Ronald Acuna (ATL) Over 2.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (+120 on DraftKings)

 

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