Welcome back to another round of MLB Best Bets Today as the 2025 baseball season rolls on. 

Sunday’s baseball slate is another loaded one with 15 games on the MLB schedule. We have games going on all day with every team in action. As always, there are plenty of ways to go for our top MLB picks and predictions. Let’s focus on two games for our MLB best bets today before dishing out a few baseball player props and other picks to consider. 

Keep in mind, some of these odds or lines could move before first pitch. All bets below are for one unit unless otherwise noted. Without further ado, let’s dive into our MLB Best Bets Today.

 

 

 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 6/22

Our MLB Best Bets Today feature an NL East matchup on Sunday Night Baseball as the Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets. Plus, we dive into an early afternoon game between the Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay Rays. Plus, don’t miss some top MLB player prop bets below. Check out these MLB predictions to make as you enjoy Sunday’s baseball action. 

 

 

 

Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Predictions: Sunday, June 22nd

This weekend’s series between the Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay Rays has been a high-scoring one so far. The Rays won both games with a 14-8 victory on Friday and then an 8-3 win on Saturday. Let’s bank on today’s matchup being another offensive-filled one. 

Tampa Bay starter Zack Littell has a decent 3.88 ERA this season, though his 5.33 FIP and 4.59 xERA are notably higher. He’s benefited from a low .255 BABIP with an unsustainable 87.9% left-on-base rate. The right-hander has mostly been effective, but he can also struggle in tougher matchups. 

Besides an impressive 3.0% walk rate, Littell’s other advanced stats paint a very different picture. He has a 16.4% strikeout rate (11th percentile), 18.5% whiff rate (8th), 12.2% barrel rate (9th), and .273 xBA (19th). Those numbers are worrisome against a dangerous Tigers lineup. 

Detroit is elite against right-handed pitching over the past week with a .364 wOBA (3rd in MLB), 136 wRC+ (2nd), .850 OPS (2nd), and .267 ISO (1st). The Tigers are also an upper-tier road offense this year with a .321 wOBA (7th) and 106 wRC+ (6th). 

Meanwhile, Tigers starter Casey Mize is a prime negative regression candidate. He has an excellent 2.96 ERA so far, but his 3.85 FIP and 3.95 xFIP suggest he’s gotten lucky at times. Mize’s 83.8% left-on-base rate is hard to maintain, while his .289 BABIP is notably lower than it’s been the past two years. 

Mize is also worse on the road with a 3.82 ERA, 4.31 FIP, and .337 wOBA. Compare that to a 1.84 ERA, 3.27 FIP, and .257 wOBA at home this season. The splits aren’t in his favor today with the Detroit right-hander on the road. Plus, the Tigers’ bullpen has a 5.60 ERA over the past two weeks. 

As for the Tampa offense, it’s crushing right-handed pitching lately. Over the past two weeks, vs. righties, the Rays lead the majors in wOBA (.371), wRC+ (144), and batting average (.301). They’re also averaging 7.4 runs over the past nine games entering today. 

Let’s take the over for both the full game and the first five innings. The Tigers have played to the over in eight straight games. The over is also 6-3 in the Rays’ past nine games.  

 

 

 

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Predictions: Sunday, June 22nd

This week’s Sunday Night Baseball game features a series finale between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. The NL East rivals split the first two games, with Philly winning 10-2 on Friday and the Mets taking an 11-4 victory on Saturday. Let’s see how to bet on tonight’s showdown. 

Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo has a 4.41 ERA following some shaky outings over the past month. He got rocked in back-to-back games, but has quieted down lately. The left-hander tossed six innings of one-run ball at home against the Cubs two starts ago. Then he was effective for five innings against the Marlins last time out before running into trouble. 

Remember, this is still the same pitcher who had a 2.15 ERA over his first 11 starts of the year. Luzardo’s current 2.88 FIP is encouraging as well. He also boasts excellent advanced metrics with a career-best 6.0% barrel rate (81st percentile) with a 26.9% K rate (77th), 29.5% whiff rate (77th), and 30.5% chase rate (73rd). 

Luzardo also owns a 2.32 FIP at home this year. His only blemish at home is that terrible start at the end of May when he allowed 12 runs over 3.1 innings. If we take that out, the Philly lefty boasts a 1.91 ERA across his six other home outings. 

Let’s bank on Luzardo having his good stuff today. He’ll face a Mets offense that’s struggled mightily against left-handed pitching recently. Over the past two weeks vs. southpaws, New York ranks last in the majors in wOBA, wRC+, batting average, and OPS. Plus, before scoring 11 runs last night, the Mets averaged just 1.8 runs over their previous six games. 

On the other side, we have David Peterson on the mound for New York. He’s pitched to an impressive 2.60 ERA so far this season. Even so, the lefty is a potential fade candidate on the road today. 

The Phillies are a top-10 offense against left-handed pitching this year (.326 wOBA, 107 wRC+). Over the past two weeks vs. lefties, the offense has a .297 batting average (2nd in MLB), .335 wOBA (10th in MLB), 112 wRC+ (10th), and 13.6% K rate (2nd). It’s a tough spot for Peterson. 

Plus, Peterson has struggled to a 4.82 ERA in his career against the Phillies. He also has a career 4.60 ERA when pitching in Citizens Bank Park. His 3.71 FIP and 3.80 xFIP on the road this season could lead to a shaky outing here. 

Back Philadelphia to lead after five innings and ultimately get the win on Sunday night. The Phillies lost last night but are still 8-2 over the past 10 games. The Mets also just lost seven straight before Saturday’s victory. 

 

 

 

Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 6/22

 

Â