Welcome back to another round of MLB Best Bets Today as the 2025 baseball season rolls on. 

Saturday’s baseball slate is loaded up with 15 games on the schedule and every team in action. We have plenty of ways to go for our top MLB picks and predictions. Let’s focus on two games for our MLB best bets today before dishing out a few baseball player props to consider. 

Keep in mind, some of these odds or lines could move before first pitch. All bets below are for one unit unless otherwise noted. Without further ado, let’s dive into our MLB Best Bets Today.

 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/17

Our MLB Best Bets Today start with a Bay Area rivalry game between the Athletics and San Francisco Giants. Can the road A’s get it done to anchor our MLB picks? 

We’ll also dive into an in-state matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies. Check out the MLB predictions to make as you enjoy Saturday’s baseball action. 

 

 

 

Athletics vs. Giants Predictions: Saturday, May 17th

We have a Bay Area showdown tonight as the San Francisco Giants host the Athletics in the second matchup of a three-game series. Multiple stats and trends point to the visitors having the edge on the mound and offensively here. Let’s break it down. 

First off, the Athletics have been road warriors this season with a league-high 14 road wins. The Giants are strong at home themselves with a 14-7 record. However, the road A’s shouldn’t be overlooked at this point. 

Athletics starter Luis Severino has a shaky 4.70 ERA overall this season, but his home/road splits are drastic. The right-hander has struggled at home in the hitter-friendly Sacramento ballpark with a 6.75 ERA and .344 wOBA allowed in six home starts. On the road, though, Severino has dominated with a 0.95 ERA and .231 wOBA allowed in three away outings. 

The veteran has been a totally different pitcher on the road in more favorable pitching environments. San Francisco’s Oracle Park certainly qualifies as that. Severino will take on a Giants offense with weak numbers vs. righties over the past week (.285 wOBA, 82 wRC+, 24.3% K rate). 

Meanwhile, the A’s should provide run support against Giants starter Landen Roupp. The right-hander has a 4.95 ERA and 1.50 WHIP this season. He’s struggled lately with a 6.00 ERA and 4.83 FIP over his last four starts, including five runs allowed last home outing. 

The Athletics are an upper-tier offense on the road this season with a .330 wOBA (7th in MLB), 114 wRC+ (5th), and .256 BA (6th). They’re also hitting righties well lately with a .357 wOBA, 132 wRC+, and .265 BA over the past week in the split. 

Let’s take the A’s to win on the moneyline and lead after five innings. They should respond after losing the series opener last night. 

 

 

 

Pirates vs. Phillies Predictions: Saturday, May 17th

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Pittsburgh Pirates today in a matchup that heavily favors the home squad. Zack Wheeler is on the mound for Philly while Carmen Mlodzinski starts for Pittsburgh. This starting pitching matchup already points to the Phillies, and the offenses back it up. 

Wheeler had a couple of shaky outings in April, but he’s dominating lately. The Phillies’ ace boasts a 2.14 ERA over his last five starts with a 46:5 K:BB ratio during this stretch. He has a 2.95 ERA and 0.91 WHIP overall this season as a top NL Cy Young contender yet again. Wheeler’s 33.2% strikeout rate (93rd MLB percentile) and 4.9% walk rate (88th) are career-best marks as well. 

We should feel confident about Wheeler handling the Pirates offense today. First off, he’s elite when pitching in Philadelphia. The right-hander has a 2.18 ERA at home this season and a 2.66 ERA in his career at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies are 4-0 in his home starts this year and went 11-5 in his home outings last season. 

Meanwhile, the Pirates are terrible against right-handed pitching this year with a .286 wOBA (29th in MLB), 77 wRC+ (29th), and .218 batting average (29th). It’s also the same story over the past week vs. righties (.279 wOBA, 73 wRC+). Plus, Pittsburgh has one of the league’s worst road offenses this season (.274 wOBA, 71 wRC+). 

As for Mlodzinski, the Pirates’ righty has a 5.20 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the year. He’s struggled to a 6.62 ERA in four road starts as well. Pittsburgh is 0-4 in his road outings while being outscored by a combined 20-7 scoreline. 

Mlodzinski’s 16.0% K rate (13th percentile), 20.0% whiff rate (17th), and .309 xBA (6th) are worrisome advanced metrics in this matchup on the road. The Phillies are a top-five home offense with a .347 wOBA (5th), 120 wRC+ (4th), and .275 batting average (3rd). They also have a low 19.1% K rate and high 9.4% walk rate vs. righties this year. 

Take the Phillies to cover the full-game runline to win by multiple runs. They’re 15-8 at home this season while the Pirates are 6-17 on the road. That includes an 8-4 victory for the home squad last night. Let’s also bank on Wheeler earning the win. 

 

 

 

Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 5/17

 

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