Welcome to tonight’s MLB best bets for this slate of MLB action here at Fantasy Alarm on this Monday, May 12th, 2025! I spent most of the weekend betting on the Stanley Cup playoffs, but you better believe I kept my eye on baseball too! Last week ended with a record of 13-9, which we will take every time, but there’s always room to get better. 11 games on the MLB docket tonight with plenty of wagers from me, let’s go get the books!

In this MLB Best Bets Today article, you will find a wide array of choices from some Money Lines to game totals and, on occasion, some player props! Check out the rationale and if you agree with me, make sure to tail and good luck!

Now, let's dive into my expert MLB Best Bets today!

  • Season Record: 70-56-3
  • Bankroll: +6.5 units

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MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/12

Marlins vs. Cubs Predictions

When you hit a slump as a good hitter, you know it's only a matter of time before you bounce back, and for the Cubs, they have several big names in their lineup that have had a tough start to May, but I have full confidence that they will turn the tide. 

This matchup against Cal Quantrill and the Marlins is a top-tier one for the Cubs offense as they’ve scored 5.82 runs per game at home this season, and the Marlins pitcher has a 7.64 ERA on the road! 23 hits and just 12 strikeouts on 17.2 innings of work is rough, and the Cubs should rock him tonight. Kyle Tucker is the name that stands out to me, and although Quantrill is better against left-handed hitters, Tucker is hitting .270 with a .906 OPS against right-handed pitchers, and he’s only had 1 hit in his past 4 games; the All-Star is due! Give me Tucker to go over his hits/runs/RBIs prop as it sits at just 1.5 right now. 

The second wager on this game is just backing the Cubs as a team, as the Marlins are 5-12 on the road this season and score just 4.06 runs per game, so they have the edge big time on offense. They’ll have the pitching advantage as well with Colin Rea starting on the mound as he’s been awesome through 8 starts this season, rocking a 2.43 ERA while collecting 25 strikeouts over 29.2 innings pitched. I have no confidence that the Marlins keep this game close tonight, given these trends and stats, so give me the Cubs on the Run Line tonight.  

Pick: Kyle Tucker (CHC) Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-150 on DraftKings)

Pick: Cubs Run Line -1.5 (-110 on DraftKings)

 

 

 

Angles vs. Padres Predictions

Let’s go from one elite home team to another one, shall we? The Padres at home are just on one this season, sitting at 14-4 and are a league-best +47 in run differential in front of the loyal fans. That’s not a good spot to be in for the visiting Angels, especially a team that strikes out as much as they do! 

Speaking of strikeouts, let’s talk about Michael King, who has become an ace this season for the Padres with an ERA of 2.22 and WHIP of 0.99! In addition to that, he has 48 strikeouts on the season over 44.2 innings pitched, and he hasn’t allowed more than 2 runs in a start since early April. King should roll again today, too, as the Angels strike out more than any other team in MLB against right-handed pitching at a whopping 26.5 K rate. Those numbers have, of course, caused King’s strikeouts to inflate on the books to 7.5, but I’m not deterred by it as he’s topped that mark in several games this season already. Plus money to fade the Angels and back King? Sign me up on that wager. 

If we're backing King in a big way, then of course I like the Padres overall as well! They’ll be facing Yusei Kikuchi who has played well but relies a lot on strikeouts and Padres rank 3rd to last in K-rate against lefties at 19.2% so the ball will be in play today and that’s bad news against this offense so give me Kikuchi to struggle tonight and the Padres to cover the spread. 

Pick: Michael King (SD) Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+125 on DraftKings)

Pick: Padres Run Line -1.5 (-110 on DraftKings)

 

 


 

Best MLB Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 5/12

Pick: Paul Skenes (PIT) Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125 on DraftKings)

Pick: Josh Smith (TEX) Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-140 on BetMGM)

Pick: Yankees & Mariners Over 8 Runs (-115 on ESPNBet)

Pick: Diamondbacks & Giants Over 8 Runs (-110 on BetMGM)
 

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