The 2026 MLB Spring Training season officially kicks off today, Friday, February 20, with a full slate of Grapefruit and Cactus League openers. As teams begin their journey toward Opening Day, the prediction markets are already heating up with fans and traders looking to capitalize on early roster rotations and World Baseball Classic (WBC) preparation.

Using today’s projected lineups and pitching matchups, we have identified the top value plays for the first day of spring action.

Today’s Top Prediction Market Odds (Feb 20)

Matchup"Yes" Price (Favorite)"Yes" Price (Underdog)
Baltimore Orioles vs. NY YankeesOrioles: 68¢Yankees: 43¢
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White SoxCubs: 59¢White Sox: 42¢
Arizona D-backs vs. CO RockiesD-backs: 53¢Rockies: 47¢
Seattle Mariners vs. SD PadresMariners: 52¢Padres: 47¢
Texas Rangers vs. KC RoyalsRangers: 50¢Royals: 47¢

 

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Top Prediction Market MLB Picks

Baltimore Orioles to Win (vs. Yankees) — Yes (68¢)

The Orioles open their spring schedule at Ed Smith Stadium with a high market confidence of 68¢. Baltimore enters 2026 with one of the most stable young cores in the league. With many of their top prospects vying for final roster spots and a deep pitching pool, they hold a significant edge over a Yankees squad that traditionally uses the opener to cycle through minor-league arms. At a 68% implied probability, the O's are the "anchor" play for today’s slate.

Chicago Cubs to Win (vs. White Sox) — Yes (59¢)

The "Crosstown Classic" moves to Mesa as the Cubs host the White Sox at Sloan Park. Facing a White Sox team still in the depths of a heavy rebuild, the Cubs' superior depth in the middle innings makes this a high-value contract for traders looking for a steady "Yes" position.

Arizona Diamondbacks to Win (at Rockies) — Yes (53¢)

In a rare move for a spring opener, D-backs manager Torey Lovullo is fielding a starter-heavy lineup. Stars like Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, and Nolan Arenado are all expected to see early action to prepare for the upcoming World Baseball Classic. While Colorado (47¢) always plays well at home in the desert, Arizona’s decision to "fast-forward" their regulars gives them a tactical advantage that the 53¢ price hasn't fully captured yet.

 

 

 

Riskier Picks with High Upside

Texas Rangers to Win (vs. Royals) — Yes (50¢)

This is essentially a coin-flip market, but the value sits with the defending Cactus League hosts in Surprise. While the Rangers are resting Wyatt Langford and Brandon Nimmo today, veteran Nathan Eovaldi gets the start. The Royals (47¢) are always scrappy in February, but the Rangers’ veteran-heavy infield (Seager, Jung, Pederson) provides a high floor for a 50-cent investment.

How to Approach Spring Training Markets

  • The "WBC" Factor: In years like 2026, teams with heavy international representation (like the Diamondbacks) will play their starters earlier and more often in February to get them ready for tournament play. Look for these "starter-heavy" lineups to overpower teams using traditional prospect rotations.
  • Pitching Depth over Star Power: Spring games are won in the 6th through 9th innings. Research which teams have "loaded" Triple-A rosters; these are the players who will be finishing the games while the superstars are already in the clubhouse.
  • Monitor "Late Scratches": In the spring, a player might be pulled for something as minor as "back tightness" or simply because the coaching staff changed their mind. Stay glued to beat writer feeds on X (formerly Twitter) to catch price swings before the market reacts.

 

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