Welcome in to Thursday on the MLB Best Bets and the 2nd to last Thursday of the MLB regular season at that! It's been an awesome season for this article as things really turned around in the second half of the season. The bankroll has reached a new record total for the season because of that and the record has done nothing but climb. Today may be a smaller slate so their are less angles to love but I do have a pair today that I back 100% and can't wait to see them turn into winners! Enjoy the almost weekend and the baseball games tonight everyone and see you all back here tomorrow for another edition of MLB Bets. 

  • Monday's Record: 3-0
  • Season Record: 115-91-5
  • Bankroll: +10.55 units

MLB Best Bets for September 21

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees

We are now down to the last 2 weeks of the MLB regular season and things are really heating up in the American League as the Blue Jays hold a slim one game lead in the Wild Card race over the Rangers and Mariners! The Yankees on the other end are going to finish out a disappointing campaign but at least their ace Gerrit Cole is starting tonight! The pitching matchup will take center stage as Jose Berrios takes the mound on the other side for the Blue Jays and he and Cole both have been great this season. Berrios holds a 3.49 ERA on the season but has been even better in September as over 3 starts he has allowed just 4 runs over 20 innings of work, while Cole holds a season long ERA of 2.81 but a 1.5 ERA in the month of September. Couple those stats with the fact the Yankees have scored just 2 runs in this series so far you'll start to ponder an under wager. I am not sure I trust a full game under of just 7 runs though as its very low and the bullpens can be a wild card depending on who gets the nod. I will instead highlight a 1st 5 Innings under bet as the number is 3.5 runs and with these two pitchers that seems like the right direction to go for a best bet. 

Pick: Blue Jays & Yankees 1st 5 Innings Under 3.5 Runs (-120 on DraftKings)

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

Going back to the well here on the Phillies tonight as they start a new series against the lowly New York Mets. The Phillies have been awesome at home this season with a record of 43-31 and have scored on average 5.19 runs at the Bank, the 8th highest mark in the MLB for home teams. Those numbers should stand or improve tonight as the Mets are sending out David Robertson who has had a tough season and should allow a good number of runs. The Phillies with all of these intangibles are projected for around 5.3 runs tonight according to the model and that puts their team total of 4.5 firmly in play. They have gone over this number in 5 of the last 6 games and some of those outings came against the Braves so I think against the Mets they should have little trouble hitting their over team total runs this evening. 

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-115 on BetMGM)

**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned.