Happy Saturday everyone and welcome back to the MLB Best Bets! I took a few days away to focus on the upcoming NHL season but make no mistake I am still as locked into baseball as ever! Going to try to build off of what has been a great September as the winning nights are starting to become more common. For today I have just a pair of bets as not much stuck out to me but these two wagers I found I am all the way in! They will feature a Money Line value and a game total that was set way too low in my opinion. Good luck out there everyone and see you all back here next week!

  • Wednesday's Record: 3-1
  • Season Record: 111-90-5
  • Bankroll: +8.33 units

MLB Best Bets for September 16

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins

After what has been a remarkable season to this point its not everyday the Braves lose 2 of their last 4 games. They did lose last night too as the Marlins rallied late to grab the victory but I see a very different outcome today. The Marlins are going with a bullpen game today which is a downgrade right off the bat as their starting pitching has been so good this season so not having any of them out their hurts. Then there's the problem with keeping up on offense as the Braves lead the MLB with 5.84 runs per game and the Marlins typically struggle on offense. The Braves have an edge today that much is clear but the sportsbooks are underselling them on the Money Line in my opinion as they sit anywhere from -115 to -125 across the different sites. They were -200 just yesterday and this team is still fantastic so confusing odds math there. Either way give me the Braves today at a nice discount. 

Pick: Atlanta Braves Money Line (-115 on BetMGM)

Tampa Bay Rays & Baltimore Orioles

This bet like the Braves is a product of a misprice on the numbers over at the books today as this game features a total of just 7.5 runs! I understand that Tyler Glasnow is a very good pitcher with a 3.15 ERA but even he has games where he allows some offense, most notably his last start against the Twins allowing 4 runs. This Baltimore offense is special this season too at 5.07 runs scored per game, the 6th most in the MLB. The Rays are no slouches either coming in at 5.31 runs per game and they get to square off against Grayson Rodriguez who has had an inconsistent season on the mound. Couple that with the fact that the O's go over in 55.2% of games and the Rays go over in 54.5% of games the line of 7.5 runs just seems too low. Let's ride the over in what should be a great baseball game tonight. 

Pick: Rays & Orioles Over 7.5 Runs (-115 on DraftKings)

**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned.