Welcome to a brand new week everyone, I hope your Monday has gone well so far! As we head into mid September in the MLB season I should remind you all to stay disciplined with your bets and don't try to force them in just because the regular season is waning. Stick to the system and we will all come out ahead, simple as that. Today's article sees me doubling down on two games on the MLB slate which include a strikeout prop, a 1st 5 innings total, a team total and a player prop! Feeling great about all of them and if you do too let's ride together!

  • Saturday's Record: 2-1
  • Season Record: 107-86-5
  • Bankroll: +8.22 units

MLB Best Bets for September 11

Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers

Its a matchup of two National League playoff hopefuls tonight as the Marlins hit the road to take on the Brewers! Both of these teams have won plenty of games this season but it hasn't been on the backs of their offenses as the Marlins score 4.11 runs per game, the 6th lowest average in the MLB and the Brewers score 4.44 runs per game. Now the each team has their moments of course but given the pitching matchup for today I could see low scoring affair that is on brand with each teams season. Jesus Luzardo will pitch for the Marlins and while August was rough for him he still holds a 3.59 ERA and has a knack for striking out a bunch of batters per game. That works out well because the Brewers are the 9th highest team in strikeouts per game this season. The other pitcher for tonight on the Brewers side is Brandon Woodruff and since returning from injury he has looked the part of an ace with a 2.3 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. I do want to just focus on these two on the mound as well so the game under I will stay away from but I will be hitting the under in the first 5 innings while they are dueling. I will also add Luzardo's strikeouts as he has been on a roll of late and his number is just 5.5 tonight. 

Pick: Marlins & Brewers 1st 5 Innings Under 4 Runs (-155 on BetRivers)

Pick: Jesus Luzardo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120 on DraftKings)

Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies

It's another edition of the MLB best bets so you know I always begin my research fading a lot of the same teams and one of those teams continues to be the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies are one of the worst teams in the league and the pitching has been a large reason why. Enter Kyle Freeland who could be walking into a buzz saw today with his 5.09 ERA which has been even worse over the last 7 starts where is ERA and ballooned to over 6. If that wasn't enough his opponent in the Cubs hit lefties very well especially Cody Bellinger. The Cubs offense enters tonight the 7th highest scoring team in the league at 5.03 runs per game but that number tonight is expected to inflate given the elevation. In fact the model projects the Cubs at 6.2 runs tonight and that is close to their team total of 6.5 tonight. I do think they top it but it may be close but I won't bet an under on this team. Then there's a player prop to add in Bellinger as he is crushing lefties this season hitting .347 with a massive OPS of 1.003. Those numbers are out of bounds so let's hit on him going over 2.5 hits, runs and RBIs tonight. 

Pick: Chicago Cubs Team Total Over 6.5 Runs (+100 on Caesars)

Pick: Cody Bellinger Over 2.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (+110 on DraftKings)

**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned.