Welcome into the MLB Best Bets for today and happy Friday everyone, we made it through the grind another week! As August rolls in things have gone well overall this betting season but yesterday I was humbled no doubt and got kicked around big time. The process was sound though so there's no need to panic as we have a near full slate tonight and sometimes that's just baseball… In the writeup today we have two game total wagers, a pitching prop and a hitters prop to break down! I'm excited about all of the bets for today so lets get right into them!

  • Thursday's Record: 1-3
  • Season Record: 59-56-3
  • Bankroll: -2.44 units
 

MLB Best Bets for August 4

Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs

What do you get when two top 5 offenses collide, well hopefully a bunch of runs and an entertaining game. Starting with the Cubs there are few teams hotter on offense right now as they've scored 13.67 runs per game over the last 3 games and are now up to an average of 5.54 runs per game at home. That's the 4th highest average in the MLB and their opponents today in the Braves got the job done too as they average 5.29 runs per game on the road, the 4th highest mark in the majors. Although the pitching matchup is a good one between Max Fried and Kyle Hendricks the projected total still stands at 9.69 for this afternoon and that is well north of the 8.5 game total line that the books are offering right now. Follow the stats and they'll tell you that the over is the wager to make in this contest. 

Pick: Braves & Cubs Over 8.5 Runs (-115 on Caesars)

Arizona Diamondbacks at Minnesota Twins

It's early August and the Diamondbacks and Twins are fighting for their postseason lives just about every game from here on out! The Twins are in a better situation as it appears the Guardians gave up at the trade deadline but either way every game counts right now. This game is a tight one to evaluate from the wagering side but there is one angle that is glaring and its a strikeout prop. The Twins strikeout more often than any team in the MLB this season and its not particularly close as they swing and miss on average 10.25 times per game, the next highest team is at 9.92! That makes any pitcher going against the Twins worth a look and tonight its not just an average pitcher its Merrill Kelly who is enjoying a great season with a 9-5 record, 3.23 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Kelly also has 109 strikeouts on 106 innings pitched and that average should be enough for tonight as his K prop sits at 5.5 on some books. Kelly has gotten to 6 or more strikeouts in 10 starts this season and I am confident he can do it again so give me the over.

Pick: Merrill Kelly Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-150 on PointsBet)

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

For the last piece of this article let's head west as the Dodgers travel to take on the Padres. This rivalry has always been good but the last few seasons things have really heated up with all the talent on both rosters. Padres have been hot lately, more so than the Dodgers as they've won 5 of their last 6 games and have done so in convincing fashion and I like their offense today against Bobby Miller with his 4.37 ERA. Miller is a fine pitcher but he could be walking into a buzz saw tonight. Don't really love Yu Darvish on the other side though either given the matchup so I expect us to see some runs in this matchup. The total is currently 8 runs across most books and given the statistical trends of each team that seems low and the projected total in the game total model shows 9.41 runs tonight. I should also mention that the Dodgers go over in 61.4% of their games this season, the highest rate in the MLB. I am also going to tag on a player prop on Juan Soto for tonight as he is flaming hot right now. Soto is hitting much better against right handed pitching this year with a .294 average, 59 RBIs and 18 homes runs so sign me up for the over on his hits, runs and RBIs prop tonight as he has topped the line of 1.5 in each of the last 4 games. 

Pick: Dodgers & Padres Over 8 Runs (-118 on DraftKings)

Pick: Juan Soto Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-110 on DraftKings)

**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned.