Time for the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for Saturday, August 19th. We hit yesterday with the Boston Red Sox money line but got tagged by an unexpected Brewers surge against a lefty and then an unexpected pitchers’ duel in San Diego. But I did tell you also to jump over to the Bettor Sports Betting Show where I handed out a Pablo Lopez strikeout prop that hit, as well as a same game parlay that took the Minnesota Twins on the money line as well as the under. The plus-odds on both of those evened everything out for us and even gave us a little profit. With no betting show today, I’ve got to be extra sharp today, so let’s get to it.


MLB Best Bets for August 19 

Pittsburgh Pirates at Minnesota Twins

I don’t often start things off with a player prop, but after diving into this match-up more, I am going to go after some plus-odds which, in my opinion, shouldn’t be, so you might want to jump on this early before the numbers change. The Pirates are striking out 26.6-percent of the time over the past week and have a 24% K-rate against righties all season. The prop for Sonny Gary is at 6.5 right now and I’m definitely leaning on the over. He’s struck out at least seven in each of his last three starts and he’s working off a 9.57 K/9 at home this season which is almost a full strikeout over his road numbers. The Twins are looking to lock down the AL Central as quickly as possible and the Pirates are…well, they’re the Pirates.

Pick: Sonny Gray over 6.5 strikeouts (+120 on BetMGM)

San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves

It’s the classic matchup of the irresistible force meeting the immovable object. The big, bad Braves lineup against NL Cy Young contender Logan Webb. While the Braves have been one of the top-hitting clubs all year and they just won four in a row, the batting average over the past three games has been right around .200. Do I think they suddenly break out against Webb? Not really. On the other side, the Braves are throwing Yonny Chirinos so it’s likely more of a bullpen game for them as he rarely goes more than five innings. The Braves pen has been good, not great, but this game total still feels a little high for me, especially with Webb likely to hold the Braves lineup in check.

Pick: Giants/Braves Under 9.5 runs (-115 on BetMGM)

Milwaukee Brewers at Texas Rangers

Yes, I know we missed with this one yesterday, but I’m going right back to the well. I’m not a huge Dane Dunning fan, but you cannot ignore what he’s been doing over these last three starts – 2.18 ERA with a 29:4 K:BB. The Brewers did most of their damage against some shaky Texas relievers, but with Dunning going fairly deep into games now, the pen shouldn’t be a factor. Meanwhile, I will bet on the Texas lineup to do damage against almost anyone and with Freddy Peralta on the bump, I’m very much in on these Rangers. Yes, Peralta has been strong in recent outings, but come on…the White Sox? Rockies? Nationals? The last time he faced a legitimate lineup, he coughed up six runs to the Braves. I’ll back the Rangers easily.

Pick: Texas Rangers Money Line (-130 on DraftKings Sportsbook)