Happy Monday everyone and welcome to a brand new week on the MLB Best Bets! It wasn't the best weekend in betting for me but there was sunshine and time away from the grind so watching baseball was still fun all the same. Time to lock down for a new week though as we start it with a smaller slate than usual but that just means I am locked in with less distractions of other action. In today's piece we have two game totals and a pitchers prop to take a look at and if you like it wager with your man Wags! Good luck as always everyone tonight in the world of Sports Betting and I will see you back here tomorrow for some more winners!

  • Sunday's Record: 1-2
  • Season Record: 74-69-3
  • Bankroll: -2.37 units
 

MLB Best Bets for August 14

Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets

Two teams tonight that are taking the metaphorical knee to close out the season as they're both too far gone in the standings to make a playoff push. That doesn't mean we can't wager on them and that's what I fully intend to do today. The pitching matchup is a doozy with Quinn Priester going against Carlos Carrasco so there should be some runs scored but the total has me confused as it sits at 11 total runs and that just feels way too high for these two teams. The Mets offense averages just 4.39 runs per game this season and even less on their home turf at 4.1 per game. The Pirates are worse with 4.1 runs per game overall on the season so I don't really understand why the total would be 11 runs. The Mets also hit the under in 57% of their games this season, the 5th highest rate in the MLB so give me that under for today's game between these two struggling teams. 

Pick: Pirates & Mets Under 11 Runs (-135 on BetRivers)

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers

The Rangers and Angles are at complete opposite ends of the MLB standings as the playoff push continues and I don't see things looking up for the Angels today! Max Scherzer will take the mound for Texas and its been a good trade for both parties so far through 2 starts as he has an ERA of 2.77 and has collected 15 strikeouts in 13 innings pitched. His opponent tonight in Los Angeles like to strikeout quite often so that leads me into looking at his strikeout prop for tonight. The Angels swing and miss on average 9.3 times per game but its been over 11 times per game over the past 3 games. That is probably why Scherzer's prop is a bit inflated to 7.5 strikeouts for tonight but the right handed ace is more than capable of topping that mark as he has done so in 9 starts this season between the Mets and Rangers. 

Pick: Max Scherzer Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+103 on BetMGM)

Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals

The Royals 2023 season might be dead and gone but no one has told their offense that has been lighting things up recently! Kansas City has scored 56 runs over their past 10 games and that has lead to their game totals going over of course in 7 of those 10 games. If they can continue that average or even just a bit below than betting the over in this game makes too much sense. The total sits at 8 right now and considering the numbers that's just too low even if Logan Gilbert is starting for the Mariners tonight with his 3.66 ERA. The Mariners offense isn't a pushover group either as they score 4.65 runs per game on the road this season which is slightly above league average. The model has this game projected at 9.08 total runs and the total on the books is 8, seems to good to pass up so let's hammer the over. 

Pick: Mariners & Royals Over 8 Runs (-115 on FanDuel)

**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned.