The All-Star break is approaching, and it's a great time to reflect on trends from the first half and see if there is any value to mine for the second half of the fantasy baseball season. I took a peek at a leaderboard, and I found some surprising and exciting stuff. Here's an interesting fact: the players with the third and fourth most RBI in the league play for the same team, and it's not the Red Sox, Dodgers, or Padres. It's the Los Angeles. And what's more? Neither of those two players are named Mike Trout.
Yep. Shohei Ohtani and Jared Walsh have both had breakout seasons. I don't need to say much more about Ohtani, the first- ever player to be selected as an All-Star as both a starting pitcher and a DH. He leads the league in home runs, and he's the leading candidate for AL MVP. Jared Walsh has been perhaps one of the biggest surprises. Taken in the 18th round, Walsh has drastically outperformed expectations. So far on the season, Walsh is batting .283, and he would be batting for even more average if he didn't have to face lefties. Walsh's 20 home runs and RBI are impressive, though his .348 BABIP and .330 wOBA suggest he may not finish the season top five in RBI. Nevertheless, the value for Walsh has been incredible, and his 90th percentile barrel rate and 92nd percentile max exit velocity suggest there is plenty to remain excited about for the second half.
And speaking of surprises, the sixth-most RBI belong to another player from a losing team - a player that went largely undrafted. I picked up Adam Duvall for the second year in a row off the waiver wire, and he has rewarded me handsomely. Duvall does not bat for average, but his max exit velocity is in the 91st percentile of the league, his barrel rate is in the 94th percentile, and his hard-hit rate is in the 84th percentile. His bat is useful. Oh, and let's not overlook the fact that he has swiped five extra bags this season with a sprint speed in the top 17 percent in the league. But here's the best part, Duvall is still available in 41% of Yahoo leagues. Duvall only has a one-year deal with the Fish, so I can see him being moved at the deadline to a team in need of some power. Could there be a park upgrade in his future?
Rounding out the surprises in the RBI category is number eight, Adolis Garcia - again, playing for another losing team, the Texas Rangers. The 28-year-old rookie, formerly DFA’d by both the Rangers and the Cardinals, is now an All-Star leading the AL Rookie of the Year campaign. Garcia has taken the major league by storm with an average exit velocity in the 84th percentile of the league, an 80th percentile hard-hit rate, and an 81st percentile sprint speed. His twenty home runs are tied for seventh with Jared Walsh mentioned above, Rafael Devers, Matt Olsen, Sal Perez, and teammate Joey Gallo. Those are some pretty heavy hitters. Garcia still strikes out too much, but his batting average is a very respectable .270 and he has eight stolen bases to sweeten the deal.
Interestingly, none of these players were drafted before the 13th round, and none of these players play for teams with a winning record. In fact, if you include Ozzie Albies, half of the top ten players in the RBI category play for teams currently with losing records. Even more interesting? The first Astro appears at number 19, Yuli Gurriel, the first Giant appears at number 24, Brandon Crawford, and the first Dodger appears at number 36, Max Muncy. Yet, as a team, the Houston Astros have the most RBI for the first half of the season, the Dodgers have the third-most RBI, and the Giants have the sixth-most.
Isn't baseball WEIRD and wonderful?
If you're looking for RBI moving into the second half of the season, don't be afraid to target players with good underlying power metrics who bat in the heart of the order just because they play for a "losing" team. Jesus Aguilar, Eduardo Escobar, Ryan Mountcastle, Robbie Grossman, and Jonathan Schoop may not be "sexy" names, but they could get the job done.
There's value to be found everywhere.