Welcome back to the best stolen base picks for today. The second half of the MLB season is underway and while yesterday’s picks failed to hit, we were certainly in the right place, identifying which catchers are struggling the most at throwing guys out. It’s a high-variance market so we’re not going to hit every day, but we’re going to keep on going. Let’s check in with the stolen base prop finder and start the second half of the 2026 MLB season off on the right foot with some winning stolen base picks today.

Remember, Fantasy Alarm is your one-stop shop for all sports betting and player props and we’ve got everything for MLB from the stolen bases to the home runs  to strikeouts to all the best bets you need to be a successful sports bettor. Our Bet Tracker is loaded up for the day and all the articles are available to you. Now, it’s time to dive into the research and deliver the best in MLB stolen base picks today.

Also, don’t forget to check out the latest edition of the new weekly stolen base report, as that series will continue to accrue data which will help us out on a daily basis. Everything you need for both daily and weekly fantasy baseball help. And speaking of daily help…you’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. And don’t forget to also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

 

 

 

Best MLB Stolen Base Prop Predictions Today

Identifying the best stolen base predictions requires matching elite sprint speeds against defensive liabilities and today’s board features incredible betting value across several players, from top stars to some bottom-of-the-lineup supporting characters. Take a look below but let’s be sure to match them up with the pitchers allowing the most steals to date. Be sure to check in with our MLB Odds Finder to find the best values.  

*Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

 

Pitchers Most Vulnerable to Stolen Bases Today

When hunting for successful MLB stolen base picks today, targeting the right pitcher is half the battle. The following list is made up of the day’s starting pitchers who have allowed the most stolen bases this season.

 

 

 

Catchers Allowing the Most Stolen Bases

The final piece of the puzzle for finding the best stolen base predictions involves looking behind the dish at catcher pop times and throwing accuracy. How many times teams attempt to steal a base on a particular catcher is a strong indicator of who we expect to see doing the most running today. The following backstops have the lowest Caught Stealing% with a minimum of 10 SB attempts against them.

 

Best MLB Stolen Base Picks Today:

Locking in the best stolen base predictions means finding the absolute perfect storm of a high-on-base runner and a weak battery. Here are our top two MLB stolen base picks today for Sunday, July 19:

Favorite Bet: 

Chandler Simpson, Tampa Bay Rays (+228)

If you’ve watched Sonny Gray pitch this year then you know there’s some risk involved, but lefty hitters are still posting a .295 wOBA against him. Not great, but not awful ether. The important factor here is that Connor Wong is behind the plate and his 11-percent caught-stealing rate is downright miserable. Of the three Rays I like for stolen bases today, Simpson is the only one of the three to actually get a hit off Gray, so the scales tip slightly in his favor. Simpson runs wild on the bases and takes a lot of chances, hence the 68-percent success rate, but he’s got the elite-level speed we need and I am always encouraged by his .344 OBP against righties. Let’s lock it in. 

Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners (+230)

Yesterday, we went with Randy Arozarena and while it didn’t work for us, I would certainly have no issues going back to that well again, especially with the way he’s stolen bases this season. However, we’re going to lean further into JRod because of how he handles left-handed pitching. Rodriguez is sporting a .365 wOBA with a .340 OBP and fie stolen bases against southpaws this season and lines up very well against Robie Ray, who struggles against opposite-handed hitters. Add to it, the below-average 22.9-percent caught-stealing rate for the Giants catchers and we’ve got a solid play here.

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