Thursdays are the typical transition days during baseball season, and this is the final one before NFL Thursday Night Football. So, let’s take advantage of the lighter nine-game slate by locking in the best MLB home run picks and start a new streak! Although we have factors going against us like Sandy Alcantara and a series in Seattle, it’s our job to find the top spots for you. We’ll say now that it isn’t our all-time favorite slate, but there are still matchups with value that are worth making MLB home run predictions for.

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Along with Sandy Alcantara, we also have great arms on the mound like Logan Henderson and Tarik Skubal, which means that going beyond our top MLB home run picks today with our MLB expert picks is a must. Of course, we aren’t going to keep focusing on guys that we want to avoid. With that in mind, you can find even more MLB home run predictions than the guys below with our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 9/3: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

We noted Seattle not generally being a location that we love for MLB home run picks, but what can make locations great spots for them is weather, so you’ll want to also have our MLB weather report bookmarked. After all, Wrigley Field is on the menu, which is the most receptive ballpark to wind by a mile.

That’s helped Pete Crow-Armstrong hit plenty of dingers (as if he needed it), and speaking of hitters, we also check out their barrel and hard-hit rates, expected slugging and ISO, launch angles, and more. Similarly, starters have much of the same metrics as well as HR/FB ratios, righty/lefty splits, and more.

Of course, bullpens also play a major role in finding the best MLB home run picks, and you’ll see even more factors as we break down each pick below!

Brandon Lowe (+405)

We are wasting zero time with this first target in what is the first game of the day - an AM matchup for anyone not on the East Coast. The guy we’re targeting is in that time zone since we’re focused on the Pittsburgh Pirates in what is a battle of Barry Bonds teams. That only makes it a more perfect target for the best MLB home run picks.

While that lefty won’t be at the plate, we do want to focus on southpaws with San Francisco Giants starter Blade Tidwell on the mound. The rookie righty doesn’t have the biggest sample size, but we love seeing a .500 slugging allowed to lefties. We love it even more when Pittsburgh has both Brandon Lowe and Oneil Cruz, and truthfully, they’re both fantastic targets.

Since we have to lock one in for you here, we’re leading off our top MLB home run picks today with Brandon Lowe hitting a HR (19.8%, so +405, at ProphetX).

Wilyer Abreu (+315)

Not too far from our first spot at PNC Park is Camden Yards, where the Baltimore Orioles will just be getting back from back-to-back series at Sutter Health Park and Coors Field. That quick turnaround travel may not turn the ballpark into those spots, but it should still help the Boston Red Sox come through with some MLB home run picks.

Our approach is slightly against the grain, as we largely know Wilyer Abreu for hitting lefties well as a lefty himself. However, he’s far from incapable of going yard vs. righties as well, as he has a .235 expected ISO against such pitchers. In fact, that helped him homer off of today’s exact starter earlier this season - Brandon Young!

The O’s righty has allowed five homers over his last three starts, so let’s see him allow even more MLB home run picks to cash, including Wilyer Abreu hitting a HR (24.1%, so +315, at ProphetX).

Will Smith (+456)

We’ve gone from the very first game to one sandwiched in the meat of the schedule, so it’s only fitting to wrap up with the finale of the slate. That means more Cardinals vs. Dodgers action where Jordan Walker cashed for us just two nights ago. He and the rest of St. Louis will be facing Tarik Skubal, so we’re swapping sides with our best MLB home run picks today.

LA was already set up for success last night with STL not even announcing a starter until the 11th hour, and now they get to face Quinn Mathews. The rookie is making just his fifth career start, and while you’ll see seven K’s in two of his past three, they were literally ideal matchups against the aforementioned Pirates and Cincinnati Reds.

So, don’t be fooled by the small sample size and stick with our top MLB home run picks today by locking in the catcher that is all but guaranteed to be in the lineup with a lefty on the mound, and lock in Will Smith hitting a HR (18%, so +456, at ProphetX).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Our top three MLB home run picks and a FREE bonus pick already set you up for an awesome chill day on the diamond, but let’s make the light slate even more valuable with our favorite longshot for today…

You’ve seen us roll with Xavier Edwards in this spot, but he’s on the IL, and even Otto Lopez is “only” at +600-ish these days. Either way, we want to pick on the KC bullpen today, and even this lefty not known for his power can do so. So, the Miami Marlins center fielder is our best MLB home run longshot pick for today. 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

What can make even the smallest of slates as exciting and as valuable as possible is hitting a monster payout like our for-fun parlay here…

Yordan speaks for himself and didn’t homer for us last night; Hernandez takes on Michael Wacha, who actually allows more power to fellow righties and who says no to Ohtani? That trio is our favorite way to continue making the best MLB home run picks for today!