Thursday slates in the MLB are often the smallest of the week as we prepare for the weekend action, but thanks to MLB home run picks, we can still make it an extremely valuable one. We also have some afternoon games to enjoy, so there is no waiting to root for some round-trippers. Even though we don’t see Coors Field or Sacramento on the slate, we’ve still locked in the best MLB home run predictions for you.

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Beyond our MLB home run picks, you can also uncover far more markets to target courtesy of our MLB expert picks, where you’ll see everything with full transparency. We've even provided you with a way to discover more long-ball targets than our favorite ones with our MLB home run prop tool. Check those out after seeing our top MLB home run predictions here:

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 6/25: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Of course, many fans out there will also want to know the “why” behind our MLB home run picks. For starters, another tool that we have for you - our MLB weather report - is the perfect place to start.

Along with environments, we’ve checked out righty/lefty splits for both the starters on the mound and hitters at the plate. Of course, we can’t ignore bullpens and the underlying metrics like expected ERAs and expected slugging percentages. Even more goes into our MLB home run picks, and you’ll see more factors as we break down each one!

Pete Crow-Armstrong (+360)

Pete Crow-Armstrong leads today’s home run prop board as the highest-percentage target on the slate at 45% according to our model, and the underlying metrics back up that confidence. The Cubs outfielder carries a .275 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, paired with a 51.4% hard-hit rate and 11.6% barrel rate, all pointing to real pop when he connects. On the other side, Freddy Peralta has been one of the more homer-prone arms in the game against left-handed bats, posting a 1.77 HR/9 and an 18.3% HR/FB rate in those matchups this year. PCA squares up right-handers at a .559 slugging percentage with a .918 OPS, making this one of the cleanest bat-vs.-pitcher setups on the board. At +360 on BetRivers, the value is outstanding for a name finishing with the highest hit rate we’ve logged today.

Alec Burleson (+475)

Alec Burleson is having a monster season against right-handed pitching, posting a .335 average with a .603 OBP and a 1.015 OPS in those splits. His .268 ISO vs. righties shows genuine home run power, and he is running a 48.4% hard-hit rate with a 10.6% barrel rate to reinforce it. Today, he draws Zac Gallen, who has been vulnerable against left-handed hitters to the tune of a 1.34 HR/9 and a 15.1% HR/FB rate this season. One weather note worth flagging: Busch Stadium is carrying a 42% precip chance tonight with scattered storms possible around gametime that could cause a late start or delay. Monitor pregame for updates, but if the game goes as scheduled, Burleson checks every box on paper. At +475 on Caesars, this is a number that does not reflect how well-positioned he is in this matchup.

Dillon Dingler (+425)

Dillon Dingler has emerged as one of the more exciting power bats in the Tigers' lineup, and his profile against right-handed pitching this season is excellent. He is slashing .286 with a .577 slugging percentage and a .924 OPS in those splits, backed by a .291 ISO, 50.0% hard-hit rate, and 12.8% barrel rate. Tatsuya Imai has been rough against left-handed hitters, allowing a 1.57 HR/9 and an 18.8% HR/FB rate to that side this year, but the splits tool shows no meaningful advantage vs. right-handers in this dataset either, reinforcing Dingler as a strong right-on-right target at +425 on BetRivers. The price here likely reflects name recognition more than the actual matchup quality.

Paul Goldschmidt (+400)

Paul Goldschmidt has been an absolute wrecking ball against left-handed pitching this season, posting a .408 average with an .816 slugging percentage and a 1.304 OPS in those matchups. His .408 ISO vs. LHP is the kind of number that jumps off the page, and his 257 wRC+ against southpaws makes him one of the most dominant right-on-left splits in the sport right now. He gets one of the better setups on today’s board in Connelly Early, who has been leaking home runs at a 1.53 HR/9 rate against right-handed batters this season across 59 innings. Early’s 15.6% HR/FB rate against righties reflects a pitcher who is surrendering hard contact at a consistent clip, and Goldschmidt’s 12.0% barrel rate and 40.0% hard-hit rate show he has the tools to punish it. At +400 on Caesars, the price is far better than the matchup warrants.

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

As excited as we are to hook you up with the top three targets above, we certainly couldn’t leave you hanging in terms of a longshot. Consider adding to our top MLB home run picks with today’s longshot pick:

Casey Schmitt brings a .249 ISO against righties with a 43.9% hard-hit rate and a 12.8% barrel rate, and the matchup here is exactly the kind of thing we target for longshot plays. Jeffrey Springs has been one of the most homer-prone lefties in the league this season against right-handed bats, allowing a 2.37 HR/9 rate in those matchups across 57 innings. Oracle Park can suppress home runs, but when a pitcher is getting this level of damage from the opponent’s handedness, the ballpark only partially offsets it. Schmitt at +525 on BetRivers offers a massive return on a solid underlying setup.

 

 

 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

As if the odds above weren’t lucrative enough, how about a for-fun play to make the day absolutely massive? Here is our best MLB home run parlay for today:

Remember, it’s 100% up to you how to decide to attack the names that you’ve seen above. No matter how you slice it, our best MLB home run picks for today are here to help you get ready for the weekend in the most exciting way possible!