After a Wednesday slate that featured several early games, all 30 teams on the diamond AND a doubleheader all throughout the day, the Thursday action is lighter with just nine games. However, we’re always here to make it as valuable as possible with our best MLB home run picks for today! After all, we get yet another series in Sacramento, and we can see if anyone will hit a dinger over the Green Monster. So, let’s see who made the cut for our top MLB home run predictions today.

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⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

When it comes to the plus-money longball action, this is where you need to be. That said, for more ways to target other markets alongside our best MLB home run picks for today, check out our MLB expert picks. Additionally, we’ve also got a new MLB home run prop tool for you if you want to lock in some other targets with the ones below.

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 6/18: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

To finalize our top MLB home run picks, we always first check in with our very own MLB weather report. Beyond that, it’s no surprise that starting pitchers and bullpen performances are major factors. So too are hitters’ barrel rates, hard hit rates and their splits versus right or left-handed pitching. We’ll also touch on some other metrics while fully breaking down our top MLB home run predictions.

Ben Rice (+265)

Ben Rice has quietly put together one of the most impressive power profiles in the Yankees lineup this season, and tonight he draws Sean Burke on the mound for the White Sox. The left-handed hitter facing a right-hander is exactly the split we want, and Rice delivers with a 15.4% barrel rate and a 48.4% hard-hit rate that place him among the better contact-quality hitters on today’s board. His .355 ISO vs. right-handed pitching is elite. Burke has been vulnerable to the long ball, allowing 1.28 HR per nine innings with a 13.0% HR/FB rate and a .185 ISO against. Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch plays perfectly for Rice’s left-handed pull power, making this a prime setup for a home run prop at plus-money.

Byron Buxton (+285)

When healthy, Byron Buxton is one of the premier power threats in the American League, and tonight’s matchup against Jack Leiter sets up beautifully. Buxton leads all Minnesota hitters with a 19.3% barrel rate and a 49.2% hard-hit rate, while sitting on an ISO of .373 against right-handed pitching this season. Leiter has been susceptible to the long ball, posting a 4.97 ERA and a 10% barrel rate allowed in 2026. Tonight’s game is played at Globe Life Field in Arlington, a park that plays neutral-to-favorable for right-handed power hitters, and if Buxton gets a ball out over the plate, he has the bat speed and raw power to take it out to any part of the yard. This is a strong number for one of the most explosive hitters in the game.

Juan Soto (+300)

Juan Soto continues to be one of the best pure hitters in baseball, and he gets a favorable draw against Aaron Nola tonight. Soto’s 15.4% barrel rate and 49.7% hard-hit rate reflect his elite contact quality, while his .284 ISO against right-handers shows he’s been punishing pitchers all season. Nola has given up home runs at a 1.67 HR/9 clip with a massive 19.1% HR/FB rate and a .206 ISO allowed, making him one of the more homer-prone starters on today’s board. Citi Field has expanded its dimensions over the years, but Soto’s ability to hit the ball hard and far to all fields makes the park factors a non-issue. At +300, this is one of the best values among our top MLB home run picks today.

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

While the three targets above are our favorite in terms of top plays, how about we take a flyer for a monster potential payout? Let’s do just that with our best MLB home run picks for today.

Dominic Canzone is a name worth targeting at a big number today. The Mariners outfielder holds a 15.8% barrel rate and a 49.6% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching, backed by an elite .303 ISO that ranks among the highest for any hitter we’re targeting tonight. Shane Baz has allowed 0.80 HR per nine innings, but his 7.3% HR/FB rate and .187 ISO allowed leave the door open. If Canzone elevates against Baz, his plus power will do the rest. At +450, this is a monster potential return for a player with the profile to deliver.

 

 

 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

That value might have some fans wanting even more, so we can also sprinkle on a fun play. So, here’s our best MLB home run parlay for today.

You can also just snag a single name from that trio to play individually. Everything above is yours to use as you see fit, so just make the most of our best MLB home run picks for today leading up to the weekend!