After a day hitting TWO of our best MLB home run picks with Ben Rice and Luis Garcia, Jr., we continued cashing in the very first game of the day yesterday with Drake Baldwin at +422. That was with just five games to choose from, and now we’ve got a full Friday slate! It’s one that also features a slightly earlier start, and with Tomoyuki Sugano toeing the rubber, could it be one of our targets? You’ll find out below with our top MLB home run predictions and more!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

As excited as we are to keep this hot streak of MLB home run picks going, it’s just one of virtually countless markets to enjoy this weekend. With that in mind, make sure that you have our MLB expert picks bookmarked! After all, there are other pitchers like Tarik Skubal on the slate that could be better for markets other than homers. That said, feel free to just find even more MLB home run predictions using our exclusive MLB home run prop tool.

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 7/24: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

With three times the number of games today compared to yesterday, there are a lot more weather conditions to monitor, which is where our MLB weather report comes into play. Then, it’s time to look at starters, such as the aforementioned Sugano leading off the slate all the way to Grayson Rodriguez closing it out (another strong target perhaps?).

Of course, we need to break down the bats themselves. Hitter splits against righties and lefties are a must, as are their hard-hit rates, barrel rates and more. Some of that “more” includes how well (or not well) they hit against specific pitch types. We’ve broken down pitch mixes, bullpens and more, so let’s fully get into our top MLB home run picks for today.

Shohei Ohtani (+333)

We mentioned yesterday’s winner of Drake Baldwin, and we’re leading off with, well, another leadoff man. It’s also another spot where we’re getting borderline unbelievable value given the name, and while it’s not in the +400’s like Baldwin, getting Ohtani in the +300’s is already reason enough for him to be part of our MLB home run picks.

The generational talent is often rivaling Kyle Schwarber for the shortest HR odds in the low +200’s and nearing +100’s, and what makes this even more surprising is the fact that he’s facing Mets starter Sean Manaea. Are we supposed to be scared of him? Other than a slower 4-seam velocity, everything looks just fine to target for us.

Let’s pounce on this price and lead off our best MLB home run picks for today with Shohei Ohtani hitting a HR (+333 at Novig).

Jake Bauers (+355)

The foreshadowing was real. Picking on Tomoyuki Sugano is simply something we can't pass up. Again, his Rockies are featured in the first game of the day, and while it’s not at Coors Field, American Family Field isn’t bad for homers either. Milwaukee has several guys who can cash MLB home run picks today, so it’s all about picking the right guy on the right now.

In other words, like you’ve seen us say before, this is a pick-your-poison spot. That’s true for lefties alone, and southpaws have the superior slugging vs. Sugano. The bigger payout comes with Brice Turang if you want to go that route, but we love Bauers here. How could we not? The first baseman has a 53% hard-hit rate and 92.5 mph average exit velocity, both of which rank in the 91st percentile or better.

He also has one of the lowest chase rates in baseball, so let’s add to our best MLB home run picks for today with Jake Bauers to hit a HR (+355 at bet365). 

Ketel Marte (+310)

How about another potential leadoff jack? The Diamondbacks just put up 10 runs yesterday, and that was without Marte in the lineup. He started last series with a homer, so let’s see the same from him as Arizona starts their series with the Nationals. After all, being the one to cash our MLB home run picks instead of fellow leadoff man James Wood would feel great.

Marte has the benefit of facing a Washington opener, Carson Palmquist, which leads us to the best part of all - the Washington bullpen. It is historically bad, having allowed 75 homers! That’s 10 more than the next-closest team, and the second baseman has a .610 slugging vs. lefties to boot. Corbin Carroll could crush here too, but we’re adding to our top MLB home run picks with Ketel Marte to hit a HR (+310 at DraftKings).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

A longshot that we pivoted away from two nights ago (Jeff McNeil at +1320) cashed, and we’re still bitter about that pivot, so let’s make up for it tonight. Here’s an extremely valuable way to add to our best MLB home run picks above.

The Red Sox's 15-game win streak recently came to an end, but perhaps their second baseman can stay hot. He’s a switch hitter in a divisional rivalry and has one of the best sweet-spot rates of 40.3%. Toronto’s Trey Yesavage can be great, but also inconsistent, and keep in mind, this is our MLB home run LONGSHOT pick!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Speaking of value, let’s keep it rolling with today’s top parlay. Piece together our top three MLB home run picks for a for-fun slip or go with the approach below.

Friday night fireworks with a nice little heater that we’re on - what more do you need to kick off your weekend? Take advantage of our best MLB home run picks for today in any way that works best for you!