If you’re looking for ways to add even more excitement alongside NFL Thursday Night Football, look no further than our best MLB home run picks for today. In fact, with nearly half the slate in the afternoon before that kickoff, we can make the most of it all! That early window also features Coors Field and the Great American Ball Park, so how could we go wrong? Along with some starters in the evening to target, there is plenty to enjoy in terms of MLB home run predictions leading into the weekend.

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Along with prime targets for MLB home run picks, you may also want to enjoy some game markets or other player props like strikeouts for Drew Rasmussen. Therefore, make sure that you’re also checking out our MLB expert picks. We want to make the full day leading up to TNF as awesome as possible. Speaking of which, for even more options for MLB home run predictions, use our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 9/17: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Just because it’s a smaller slate, that doesn’t mean that we don’t consider everything for our MLB home run picks. That means starting with our MLB weather report, especially with both afternoon and evening matchups. It’s also worth noting that several starters weren't named until later than usual.

Speaking of those starters, we need to uncover the power they allow via slugging, ISO, hard-hit rates, and more. As for the hitters producing that power, we’ll also check out their launch angles, barrel rates, average exit velocities, and more. Those factors plus bullpens led us to the MLB home run picks that we’re going to break down fully below. 

Junior Caminero (+314)

One of our favorites is back on the mound today in Jeffrey Springs. We saw today rather than tonight, with this being an afternoon matchup in Tampa. That means no Triple-A ballpark in Sacramento, but that’s not enough to keep us off the pitcher who has allowed 33 MLB home run picks to cash this season - the second-most in baseball.

After all, the Rays have guys that can hit homers in any ballpark against any pitcher, one of which just cashed our FREE newsletter bonus pick recently. Both sides of the plate can smash Springs, and that includes a .235 ISO allowed to righties. So, let’s enjoy a guy with over 40 homers this year and lead off our best MLB home run picks today with Junior Caminero hitting a HR (+314 at DraftKings). 

Juan Soto (+320)

Well, we just talked about a guy who has allowed the second-most homers, and the guy on the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies is tied for #1 with last night’s starter for the Chicago Cubs - lefty Shota Imanaga. We’re talking about Aaron Nola, which means that we now have the New York Mets on our radar for MLB home run picks.

We saw Pete Alonso hit his 300th homer in his return to Citi Field recently, and we also saw Kyle Schwarber reach his fourth 45-homer season! So, let’s get another huge slugger in the mix who at least made history with his contract. Nola has a .207 ISO allowed to lefties as well, which we can pair with Soto’s monster .293 ISO vs. righties (.330 expected)!

So, let’s continue our top MLB home run picks today with Juan Soto hitting a HR (+320 at bet365). 

Yordan Alvarez (+275)

We enjoyed Jeremy Pena cashing our longshot pick just two nights ago with two homers, and we also saw Yordan Alvarez homer that same night. Although our value play on Isaac Paredes didn’t come through at +550 last night, we’re back to Royals vs. Astros. This is another one of our MLB home run picks that we’re targeting in the evening portion of the slate.

It’s a difficult spot to ignore thanks purely to the Royals' royally bad bullpen, which gives any hitter an opportunity to hit a homer against multiple pitchers. We also love that we’ll be seeing Seth Lugo before that unit, who has sub-20th percentile values for hard-hit rate, chase rate, K rate, and several other metrics.

Meanwhile, the lefty at the plate has several 99th percentile or better metrics, so let’s round out our top three MLB home run picks with Yordan Alvarez hitting a HR (+275 at bet365). 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

There may be a smaller slate, but we can always find value MLB home run picks. In fact, we’ll hardly have to wait at all for a longshot play to hit…

We’ve got a Cincinnati Reds infielder at this price despite having 15 homers this season, including a .449 slugging vs. lefties. That’s what he’ll be facing in Justin Wrobleski today, and being at home at the Great American Ball Park is also what we love to see for our best MLB home run longshot pick! 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

As if those longshot odds weren’t valuable enough, let’s go above and beyond to make the most of a light slate. Even before TNF, we can enjoy even more MLB home run picks with a for-fun parlay…

This first is a standard pivot from a top-three target in Juan Soto, but the other two are actually from other matchups. Coors Field is Coors Field, and Jensen has been hot for a month now. So, that trio is how we’re adding to our best MLB home run picks for today to enjoy even more value!