Monday baseball might not get the same fanfare as the weekend slate, but don't sleep on it - 14 games is an excellent card and some of the most hittable arms of the week are on the mound. Our best MLB home run picks for today zero in on the matchups where HR/FB rates, ballpark factors, and recent power trends all point in the same direction, and Monday has plenty of those to work with.

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⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Fourteen games means a wide field of options for our best MLB home run picks for today, and we've cut it down to three targets we feel strongest about. Of course, this is all about the plus-money, so check our MLB expert picks for the rest of the slate, and here are the names headlining our top MLB home run picks for today:

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 5/18: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

With 14 games on the board, our MLB weather report is especially important today - several of these stadiums have very different wind profiles, and all evening games in particular can shift dramatically by first pitch. Beyond conditions, we're checking out the arms with the worst HR/FB rates on this slate and looking for value elsewhere. That includes those like Jose Quintana at Coors Field, all the way to Yoshinobu Yamamoto in So Cal to consider for our best MLB home run picks for today.

Aaron Judge (+202)

For the first time since starting these up, it’s been a hot minute since cashing in with the long ball. So, let’s get back on track in one of the most “square” ways possible. That would be with the reigning back-to-back AL MVP (and three of the past four), who is most well-known for cashing in the best MLB home run picks.

First and foremost, Aaron Judge and the Bronx Bombers get to head back to Yankee Stadium tonight, one of the most homer-friendly ballparks in the major leagues. They also need to bounce back after losing the Subway Series against the New York Mets over the weekend, including a blown 3-run lead in the 9th inning yesterday.

Now facing Patrick Corbin, a lefty who we have picked on for YEARS now, there is no better way to start our best MLB home run picks for today than with Aaron Judge to hit a HR (+202 at Novig).

JJ Bleday (+400)

Let’s head to another hitter-friendly ballpark, and to do so, we don’t have to go far. That’s because we’re heading to Philly, where all eyes will be on another Kyle Schwarber homer, and even Bryce Harper just had a crazy weekend hitting dingers. However, we’re going to be focusing on the Cincinnati Reds side for our top MLB home run picks today.

We saw Elly De La Cruz hit one over the fence yesterday afternoon, and now he and the rest of the squad get to face youngster Andrew Painter. The rookie’s got a solid chase rate, but he always has nearly a 3 HR/9 and a poor HR/FB ratio. That’s bad news when facing the likes of JJ Bleday, who can smash righties.

After all, this lefty has cashed two of our best MLB home run picks this season thanks to his .353/.784/1.243 against righties this year. Let’s lock in JJ Bleday to hit a HR (+400 at BetMGM).

Ian Happ (+365)

How about another hitter-friendly location today? Following the Windy City rivalry over the weekend, which was at home for the White Sox, we see the Chicago Cubs reminding us why the city has its nickname. In other words, the 14 mph winds blowing out mean that Wrigley Field has to be part of our best MLB home run picks for today.

The home squad is taking on the Milwaukee Brewers and starter Brandon Sproat. Among pitchers with 35 or more innings pitched, Sproat has the 6th-worst HR/FB ratio, or the 6th-best for our purposes. Chicago had several guys hit well over the weekend, but in terms of yesterday, Ian Happ needs to step up.

We’re not going to let a bad Sunday deter us from a switch-hitter with one of the best barrel rates in baseball. Therefore, we’ve got Ian Happ to hit a HR (+365 at Caesars) as one of our best MLB home run picks for today.

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Monday's slate has a couple of spots where the longer odds make a lot of sense given the pitching matchups. Today's longshot comes from one of the most favorable environments on the board:

This is yet a fourth matchup worth considering - today looks to have plenty of spots for the long ball. Wrigley City may be known for its winds and having them blowing out today, but Kansas City has even stronger ones (20+ mph) that are swirling. It’s our best MLB home run longshot pick for a reason, but it’s far from out of the question!

 

 

 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Stack our best MLB home run picks for today or mix in some new names alongside one of our featured targets for Monday's best parlay:

You’re now locked and loaded to really kick off your week. Use our best MLB home run picks for today, longshot, and even the parlay above for real upside on a 14-game Monday slate. Check back as lineups are confirmed and enjoy our top MLB home run predictions for May 18th!