Monday MLB slates may be of the lighter variety, but there is one way to keep the fireworks from this weekend coming - MLB home run picks! While there may only be eight games on the diamond, we do get to start things early with Phillies vs. Royals at 2:10 PM ET. Given a matchup with Kyle Schwarber and Bobby Witt, Jr., that’s certainly one to consider. Along with the star-studded Dodgers wrapping up the slate, there is plenty to break down to hook you up with the absolute best MLB home run predictions for today!

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⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Speaking of that Phillies vs. Royals matchup, KC has been a great hitting environment for homers this season; however, we also have dominant lefty Cristopher Sanchez on the bump for Philly. Therefore, perhaps you’ll want to consider more than just MLB home run picks with our MLB expert picks!

For those of you who are only looking for more names to tack on to the ones below, then take advantage of our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 7/6: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Starters like Sanchez are major factors for MLB home run picks, but before we even get that far, everything always starts with our very own MLB weather report. We already shared that KC has been a great hitting spot, so other condition check-ins are a must. While we may not have Coors Field on the menu, the Rockies at Dodger Stadium could still spell home runs.

For more factors influencing our MLB home run predictions, we’ve got righty/lefty splits for both pitchers and hitters, the performance of team bullpens, and then some underlying metrics that you don’t see in box scores, like expected slugging for starters and hard-hit rates for hitters. You’ll see others that you may not have even heard of as we break down our best MLB home run picks for today!

James Wood (+256)

Kauffman Stadium has been strong for dingers this year for a few reasons (moving in fences doesn’t hurt), including warm, humid weather. Well, that’s been the case for much of the country as of late, including the nation’s capital. The Washington Nationals remain at home to start their week, so that’s where we’re starting our best MLB home run picks for today.

We saw James Wood homer the day AFTER we targeted him not long ago, but he’s still been kind to us overall this season. Now, he and the rest of the Nats lineup get to face Mike Burrows. The Houston Astros righty starter has been getting SMACKED by southpaws this season to the tune of a .569 slugging.

That’s great news for several Nats hitters, but we have to lock someone in, so we’re leading off our top MLB home run picks today with James Wood to hit a HR (+256 at Novig).

Max Muncy (+333)

We mentioned the Rockies vs. Dodgers matchup, and with Colorado starting Kyle Freeland, the entire LA lineup could launch dingers. That said, another lefty is on the mound opposite him in Eric Lauer, who the Toronto Blue Jays no longer wanted this year. While he’s been better for the Dodgers, he’s still a strong target for MLB home run picks, so consider Hunter Goodman.

We don’t love his price nearing the +100’s, so instead, we’re going to get better value with the Dodgers lineup, which isn’t something often said. Not a single LA hitter smacked a homer in their 5-2 loss last night, but we should see several tonight, starting with Shohei Ohtani, but again, we know that he’ll always have some short odds.

Instead, we’re going with a different lefty-on-lefty crime with Muncy having hit southpaws with a monster .773 slugging last month. We love seeing that when adding to our best MLB home run picks for today, with Max Muncy to hit a HR (+333 at Novig).

Ben Rice (+375)

Yankee Stadium saw plenty of dingers this weekend, and now the Bronx Bombers are down in Tampa Bay. For the divisional rivalry, Shane McClanahan was supposed to get the start, but it’s now Griffin Jax. Frankly, the lefty hasn’t exactly been dominant, so we may have gone with this AL East showdown with our MLB home run picks regardless.

While Junior Caminero is otherworldly right now, he still has the lesser matchup with New York starting Cam Schlittler. That’s why we’re going with the road team against Jax with his 5.37 xERA and a worse WHIP vs. lefties. While he does like to throw his change-up vs. lefties, that’s not enough to keep us away.

It’s time for #25 for the Yankees first baseman, so we’re adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Ben Rice to hit a HR (+375 at FanDuel).

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

If those top three targets have you wanting more, we’ve got you covered. We’re doing so by adding to our top MLB home run picks with today’s longshot selection!

Whether you want to believe it or not, when Jake McCarthy homered just a few days ago, he was our MLB home run longshot pick before we swapped elsewhere. Well, we’re backing him this time against the aforementioned Lauer - McCarthy is bashing lefties with a .386 average, .596 slugging, and .982 OPS! He also recently went yard in back-to-back games with two in the most recent!
 

 

 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

If you are STILL wanting more, we are STILL here for you! You could piece together our top three MLB home run picks for today, but for some other names to consider, here’s our favorite longball parlay!

As we always say, feel free to just pluck a single name from that pairing to make a single MLB home run pick instead. No matter how you use that huge potential payout, it’s just that - huge! Start your week with a bang by locking in the best MLB home run picks!