Fernando Tatis, Jr. may have been a meme for much of the season thus far thanks to not hitting his first homer for seemingly forever, but his leadoff jack (and another HR later on) last night made it back-to-back days cashing MLB home run picks for us! Oh yeah - Mickey Moniak also homered! Now we get to start a brand new month, and July 1st means that the HR derby is right around the corner. So, let’s make one of our own leading up to it by locking in our best MLB home run predictions for today.

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⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Along with aces like Paul Skenes and Zack Wheeler are other big pitcher names like Payton Tolle and Shane McClanahan toeing the rubber, so if you want more than just MLB home run picks, check out our MLB expert picks. While our bet tracker will also have you covered with more sports as well, if you just want dingers, our MLB home run prop tool is here for you as well! Now, for today’s top targets…

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 7/1: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

All the starters that we noted above are massive factors when it comes to MLB home run predictions, but before we even dive into their numbers, we always start with our MLB weather report. This is especially important when we have series at Wrigley Field and its highly receptive wind gusts.

Furthermore, righty/lefty splits are must-have numbers for MLB home run picks, as are bullpen performances, hitter barrel and hard-hit rates, and more; here’s how today’s top targets break down…

Gavin Sheets (+405)

Once again, Wrigley Field remains the best environment for homers today. The wind can absolutely shift within a single series, but it is once again blowing out. If it can help Tatis, Jr. go yard, you know that it can help just about anyone hit a dinger. We’re going to stick with the San Diego side of this matchup to lead off our MLB home run picks today as well.

It won’t be a leadoff homer again, as we’re swapping to a lefty this time around. That’s because we see Chicago starting Colin Rea, and while both sides of the plate can have success against the righty, southpaws have an even better slugging percentage against him at .428. The Padres DH has hit all 14 of his homers vs. righties, leading to a .513 slugging percentage.

This lefty hit back-to-back HRs in Seattle of all places this season, so we’re willing to call for it again with our MLB home run picks by starting them with Gavin Sheets to hit a HR (+405 at Novig).

Shea Langeliers (+300)

Shohei Ohtani was scheduled to start tonight, but that is no longer the case. With the generational talent not toeing the rubber and the game in Sacramento, how could we not go with the A’s lineup? Charlie Barnes looks like he may get the start, which means a lefty on the mound for the catcher to capitalize on and cash one of our MLB home run picks.

That said, we’re unlikely to see him in the game for more than an inning or two or three, so there is absolutely nothing wrong with taking Nick Kurtz here as well. Now that we’ve said that, you already know that he’ll go yard for you! Regardless, both of the A’s top guys can do so, and as for facing southpaws, Shea is smashing them with a .615 slugging and 1.005 OPS.

It truly is a pick-your-poison scenario, but we’ve got to lock one in, so we’ll add to our best MLB home run picks for today with Shea Langeliers to hit a HR (+300 at BetMGM).

William Contreras (+465)

If you tailed one of our overall expert picks last night, then you cashed the over in the Reds vs. Brewers NL Central rivalry. Along with three homers hit in that matchup last night, let’s not forget that we cashed with Elly De La Cruz just two nights ago. This time, to start a true streak with our best MLB home run picks, we’re on the Milwaukee side of things.

It’s a battle of lefties on the mound with Andrew Abbott vs. Shane Drohan, but we’d much prefer to pick on the former. Right-handed hitters have a .428 slugging and .340 wOBA against the Reds southpaw, otherwise we’d be tempted to take Brice Turang. Instead, we’re adding another catcher to the mix with his .821 OPS against left-handed pitching.

After Jackson Chourio and Jake Bauers homered last night, we’ve got William Contreras hitting a HR (+465 at FanDuel) as part of our best MLB home run picks for today.

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

When we see Wrigley, Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park, Coors Field, and more on the menu, you know that we couldn’t stop at just our top three spots. Go beyond our overall best MLB home run picks with today’s longshot option…

He may be 37, but Marte is still our target for a big payout tonight as he looks for his second homer this year. He can hit lefties well, and with Shane McClanahan’s K prop down to 4.5 and in a hitter-friendly environment, this may be the only time we get to target the veteran with our best MLB home run longshot pick!

 

 

 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Whether it’s guys that we had to pick-our-poison within the games above or just guys you know will go yard tonight since they didn’t last night, we’ve pieced together a for-fun parlay to truly make the most of the all-day slate…

You could also use any of those names as individual MLB home run picks if they look particularly enticing as well. The action starts nice and early today, so don’t waste any time making the most of it!