The weekend baseball action features a short porch in Yankee Stadium, a warm and humid Kansas City and Coors Field, so why not enjoy it all with some MLB home run picks? That’s exactly what we’re here to provide you with, and we had Miguel Vargas cash last night! Sure, we’ll want to avoid the likes of Dylan Cease and Tarik Skubal, but we still have spots that are fantastic targets so that you get to lock in the top MLB home run predictions for today!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Looking for more than just MLB home run picks? No problem - check out our MLB expert picks for more market coverage! After all, those aforementioned aces on the mound could be ideal for K props, and of course, game markets are always in play. That said, those can also pair with more MLB home run predictions, and you can find more targets than the ones below with our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 8/22: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

We mentioned a warm and humid KC, and weather factors play a big role when it comes to MLB home run picks. That’s why you’ll always want to have our MLB weather report bookmarked, especially to avoid weather postponements. Delays can sometimes help, as they can throw off starters who have begun their start, and speaking of which, those names are what we look at next.

Metrics like barrel and hard-hit rates allowed influence MLB home run picks, as do expected slugging, ISO and fly-ball rate. Similar values also apply to the hitters themselves along with their launch-angle sweet-spot rates and righty/lefty splits. We also can’t forget about bullpens, as the starters aren’t the only guys that we’ll see on the mound.

There truly is a ton to consider when it comes to finding the best MLB home run predictions today, but we’ve done just that, so let’s break things down! 

Corbin Carroll (+464)

Perhaps we shouldn’t even say this, BUT the days where we’ve gone 3-for-3, Corbin Carroll has been involved. Let’s not jinx things, and thankfully, Rhett Lowder and the awful Cincinnati Reds bullpen is a great combo to help us avoid doing so. While it’s not a game at the Great American Ball Park, Arizona is far from awful for MLB home run picks.

Oftentimes, we love the lefty vs. lefty prowess that Carroll possesses, but with this righty, we’re still more than comfortable with this spot. After all, even the most mediocre of lefties love lashing out against Lowder. The Reds righty has allowed a .200 ISO vs. southpaws, and the expected ISO is even worse (better for us) at .239).

Pair that with the right fielder’s .237 ISO vs. righties and you’ll want to join in with the first of our MLB home run picks on Corbin Carroll hitting a HR (+464 at DraftKings).

Alec Burleson (+488)

After picking on the Reds, let’s swap to a different NL Central team. The Cardinals vs. Phillies matchup has more teams wearing red, and we expect the road team to have some red lace paint on their bats from smacking around Andrew Painter. When it comes to the Philly righty, we love seeing this lefty bat against him to cash some MLB home run picks.

Burleson had a three-homer game earlier this month and had homers in back-to-back games even more recently than that. Expanding beyond just August, he has mashed right-handed pitching all season to the tune of a .326 average and .577 slugging. That’s why we’ve seen 18 of his 21 homers come against righties on the mound.

We also can’t ignore a 98th percentile expected slugging of .538 against all pitching, so let’s add to our best MLB home run picks for today with Alec Burleson hitting a HR (+488 at DraftKings).

Mickey Moniak (+353)

It was only a few days ago that this Rockies southpaw came through for us on a night in which we cashed two of our top three, and we’re back on him again. It’s certainly not for good reason, as Colorado remains at home in Coors Field, and unlike last night, this lefty won’t have to deal with a lefty on the mound. That’s great news for MLB home run picks.

He’s often not even in the lineup when a fellow lefty is on the mound, but given the Hunter Goodman IL issue, they don’t have a ton of options. Admittedly, seeing Moniak further down the lineup isn’t ideal, but we don’t expect that again with a righty on the mound, and if anything, it’s giving us these odds - this should be in the +200’s when Moniak is at home.

Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee has not only allowed 25 homers this year, but also 19 of those have come to lefties! He has a .219 ISO allowed to lefties that has led to that, so let’s add to our best MLB home run picks for today with Mickey Moniak hitting a HR (+353 at DraftKings).

 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

If you’re looking for more, while we already share a bonus pick, we also add to our best MLB home run picks of the day with a longshot. Here’s the guy that’s on our radar for this slate…

We’re heading to a ballpark that we’ve continued to say is sneaky-great for hitters, and Kyle Isbel proved that last night - he homered last night, and he had +1480 odds to do so tonight! Teammate Vinnie Pasquantino did as well (+800 tonight), so we’ve added another Royal to the mix, who is a lefty that can get to Detroit Tigers recently-turned-starter Drew Anderson. 

 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

That’s right - yet another way to make the most of today’s all-day slate! You can create a for-fun parlay using our top three MLB home run picks above or consider the one below…

Of course, one or any of those names can also be used for individual picks and still provide you with plenty of value. There are no bad ways to enjoy our best MLB home run picks today, so do so as you see fit!