The week started with just slightly fewer games to target for MLB home run picks, but now we get the usual full Tuesday slate! This week also features some popular spots like the Great American Ball Park, Wrigley Field, and Coors Field, so plenty of dingers should be on the menu. While guys like Zack Wheeler and Kyle Harrison may have us staying away from other matchups, we’ve found ways to avoid them and still lock in some great value. Below, you’ll find our top MLB home run predictions today, favorite longshot, and more!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Of course, MLB home run picks aren’t the only way to attack today’s full slate, and you can grab more targets by simply checking out our MLB expert picks. From K props to basic game markets and other approaches in between, you’ll find more coverage there. That said, there are few ways to get odds like the ones we’re going to discuss here. So, feel free to lock in more MLB home run predictions using our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 8/18: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

We mentioned Wrigley Field already, so of course we have to mention wind, and with how much that can affect MLB home run picks, our MLB weather report is where everything starts. Then, it’s about the guys toeing the rubber to start games and breaking down their splits and more. That means facing lefties vs. facing righties, which pitches they prefer against each, and other metrics you don’t see in box scores.

Similarly, hitters have plenty of underlying numbers that we don’t see beyond the typical game stats and highlights. They have their own lefty/right splits, home/road splits, pitch type performances, and some expected values like ISO and slugging. It’s all taken into account to provide you with the best MLB home run picks for today.

Sal Stewart (+405)

We didn’t focus on the Great American Ball Park yesterday due to the doubleheader making things a bit strange and to avoid causing any confusion among fans wanting to tail our targets, but today, that’s where we’re leading off. After all, we’ve got Kyle Leahy on the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals; that means focusing on the Cincinnati Reds for MLB home run picks.

With his second-percentile hard-hit rate allowed of 47.7% and second-percentile average exit velocity of 91.3%, both sides of the plate can come through for us. Similarly, Stewart has a .467 slugging or better against both left- and right-handed pitching as he creeps closer to a 30-homer season; we also love his 13.5% barrel rate.

It’s time to match Dane Myers from yesterday by cashing the first of our MLB home run picks on Sal Stewart hitting a HR (+405 at ProphetX).

Wilyer Abreu (+455)

Willson Contreras homered for the Boston Red Sox last night en route to 11 runs against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and now, they get to face Merrill Kelly. That means another double-digit run game is more than possible, which means more homers. For this matchup, we want to focus on a lefty for our best MLB home run picks.

That’s because not only has Kelly been dreadful overall with his embarrassing 7.15 xERA, fifth percentile K rate, second percentile barrel rate, seventh percentile hard-hit rate, and more, but it’s been especially bad against lefties. He’s allowed 17 of his 25 homers to southpaws, which isn’t surprising given his .271 xISO allowed.

Along with Abreu’s 17 of 22 homers coming vs. righties, we love adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Wilyer Abreu hitting a HR (+455 at ProphetX).

Andy Pages (+445)

Last night, we pivoted to Freddie Freeman for a lefty with more value than the chalk picks of Shohei Ohtani and Max Muncy at Coors Field. Of course, those two went yard instead, but we’re still more than comfortable taking this value spot vs. Ryan Feltner. Against the Rockies righty, it’s actually righties with the better slugging this season.

That’s great news for a guy who tends to go under the radar with the shadows cast by the aforementioned Dodgers. Let’s also not forget that we love getting to face the Rockies bullpen, and when we’re seeing this series at Coors Field, a double dong is always in play. The center fielder also has a .433 slugging percentage or better against righties and lefties, so this can easily come after Feltner leaves the game.

Let’s just cash it in the first to make it a great night of MLB home run picks thanks to Andy Pages hitting a HR (+445 at bet365).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

As if getting a FREE bonus target wasn’t exciting enough, let’s keep the hype train rolling with more. Here’s our favorite longshot option for today’s slate.

This price doesn’t even seem right with not only the lefty’s 91.1 mph average exit velocity and 43% hard-hit rate, but also with the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field today. We saw PCA go yard twice yesterday after he and Seiya Suzuki hit bombs to start the game last night, and now, the Chicago White Sox are having a bullpen game. So, we love locking in Conforto as our best MLB home run longshot pick for today!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Even the guys with the shortest of HR odds provide some solid plus-money payouts, but there are always ways to make things even more valuable. That includes a for-fun parlay, and here’s how we’d add to the MLB home run picks above.

From our top three targets and bonus pick to a longshot and for-fun parlay, you’re covered from all angles. You can even use our MLB home run picks to create a round robin for another one, so let’s make it as valuable a day as possible!