Sure, we’ve seen NFL action the past few days, but for now, Sundays are still all about the MLB action. That includes our best MLB home run picks, as we’ve loved providing you with some awesome plus-money winners all season! With so many games throughout the afternoon leading up to Sunday Night Baseball, we won’t even have to wait long to do more of the same. That also means that we don’t have much time to waste when it comes to giving you our top MLB home run predictions today and why they made the cut!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Not only do we have all-day action on the diamond to enjoy, but we also have some premier arms toeing to the rubber. So, if you want more than just MLB home run picks, then check out our MLB expert picks! From Dylan Cease to Tarik Skubal, aces are littered throughout the slate. While we won’t want to go out of our way to pick on those guys, if you want even more MLB home run predictions, utilize our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 8/16: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Since Sundays mean a ton of afternoon action, first thing’s first - our MLB weather report is the first thing to check out when it comes to making the MLB home run picks. Then, it’s time to avoid the aces like Cease and Skubal and focus on others that are struggling from Freddy Peralta leading off the slate to Ryan Johnson out west.

However, bullpens also have to be considered; for example, Peralta has a far better one coming in after him than Johnson does. Sometimes, relief units even make MLB home run picks worth it despite an above average starter. Of course, the hitters themselves also turn the tide from their righty/lefty splits, expected slugging, barrel rates, hard-hit rates and more.

As for our top three MLB home run predictions for today, here is why they ended up making the cut!

Bobby Witt (+400)

We started this weekend cashing two of our top three targets, one of which was the 2026 HR Derby contestant of Jac Caglianone. Since that may have some fans feeling some fatigue from the recent target, we haven’t gone back to Jac today, although you can roll with the lefty as a pivot if you’d like. Regardless, we still love the five-tool stud as part of our MLB home run picks.

The Los Angeles Angels have one of the poorest bullpens in baseball, but even greater than that is seeing Ryan Johnson on the mound. He’s a righty that gets smashed by both sides of the plate, so again, Caglianone would be the lefty we would target instead. However, we’re going with a guy who, let’s be honest, is due for a homer.

Let’s also not forget that Witt has a 94th percentile hard-hit rate AND average exit velocity to pair with his 92nd percentile expected slugging! That’s exactly what we want to see for MLB home run picks, so we’re starting with Bobby Witt hitting a HR (+400 at Courtside).

Byron Buxton (+460)

We’ve got another big B name on our card for today, and it’s a series that we haven’t targeted yet this weekend. That’s somewhat surprising given that Kyle Schwarber and company are on the other side of Phillies vs. Twins. With Minnesota starting Dean Kremer, we’ll admit that Philly is also set up for more MLB home run picks hitting for them as well.

However, we’re going to pick on Andrew Painter, which we’ve enjoyed this season. Well, when he’s not in the minors at least. That alone speaks for itself, as does the fact that righties have had more success against the right-handed starter. They have a .205 ISO against him, and as for Buxton, his ISO vs. righties is an amazing .321!

This is a spot where his K issues aren’t as much of a concern, so we just need him to stay healthy for us to enjoy a price we have perhaps never seen for this guy. So, let’s lock in Byron Buxton hitting a HR (+460 at ProphetX) as part of our best MLB home run picks for today.

Francisco Lindor (+425)

This is a guy that we’ve targeted only once before this season, and he came through. We expect him to do so at home in Citi Field again facing the Washington Nationals bullpen - a unit that you’ve seen us pick on as much as possible. We also like that Lindor is a switch hitter, helping him cash MLB home run picks at any point in the game.

When it comes to facing Nats starter Jake Irvin, we want to see a lefty at the plate, and Juan Soto isn’t an option right now. This is a case where we see even more struggles for Irvin than we’ve already seen, as southpaws have a .262 expected ISO against him. He also loves throwing his curveball to lefties, and Lindor is hitting .333 vs. righty curves this year.

Even if it comes from the other side of the plate and/or against the ‘pen, we’re adding to our MLB home run picks for today with Francisco Lindor hitting a HR (+425 at ProphetX).

 

 

 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Having our top three MLB home run picks AND a bonus pick is certainly enough to make the most of the Sunday slate. That said, we can always make things even more valuable; so, here’s our top longshot option!

When it comes to guys that simply don’t chase, don’t whiff and therefore, don’t strike out, this Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop is your guy. You’ll notice that we didn’t say much about power, but that’s why this is an MLB home run longshot pick, and the leadoff man still has nine homers this year. Let’s ride with another switch hitter!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Closing out your weekend with a top three, bonus pick and longshot option sounds great. Well, it sounds even better when you also add to our best MLB home run picks today with the for-fun parlay below!

Just about every possible approach is now at your disposal, and you can even create a round robin using some of the names above! They’re all here for you to fully capitalize on the Sunday slate, so let’s keep cashing our best MLB home run picks for today!