With a slate that features Paul Skenes, Dylan Cease, Cristopher Sanchez and more, it can feel impossible to find the best MLB home run picks. Not to worry - that’s where we come in! We’ve been doing it for you all season (including Junior Caminero’s homer last night), and those aces aren’t going to stop us now. After all, we still have the Sacramento Triple-A ballpark on the menu along with some starters we love picking on. We won’t keep you waiting for our top MLB home run predictions much longer!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Ok, there are just a couple of things to share with you before seeing our best MLB home run picks for today. Since those aforementioned aces are indeed toeing the rubber, consider more markets and approaches to the slate with our MLB expert picks. That way, you’ll be covered with K props, game markets and more. As for pure MLB home run predictions, just check out our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 8/11: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Fans that just want to see the names of our top MLB home run picks and get out, you’re already covered. However, for those that want to know the WHY behind our targets, we’ve also got you covered. Those factors begin with our very own MLB weather report and expand to seeing the starters that are listed (sportsbook listings are the safest bet).

After that, it’s all about considering bullpens in terms of both poor ERAs, homers allowed, and where they’re pitching. From there, it’s all about hitter data like their righty/lefty splits, performance vs. specific pitches, expected values like slugging and more. So, let’s see which ones are the focus of our best MLB home run picks for today!

Corbin Carroll (+375)

It’s not quite the ultimate trifecta that we love outlining for you, but it’s close! What we mean is that Tomoyuki Sugano is back starting for the Colorado Rockies to pair with the dreadful bullpen. While the Coors Field aspect is missing, Chase Field in Arizona is far from a bad location. So, the Diamondbacks are on our radar for today’s best MLB home run picks.

When it comes to the Arizona lineup, it’s all about two guys - Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll. It makes this a very interesting pick-your-poison to break down; Marte is as streaky as it gets and Carroll is known for lefty vs. lefty prowess. Marte just homered last time out to perhaps start another strong streak while Carroll loves crushing Colorado.

You really can’t go wrong here, and we’re going to lead off our best MLB home run picks for today with Corbin Carroll hitting a HR (+375 at bet365).

Miguel Vargas (+429)

The midweek action in Chicago may not be at Wrigley Field, but the home of the White Sox isn’t exactly a pitcher’s park either. Nick Lodolo wishes it was, as he’s returning to the mound after missing a full month. Not only that, but his xERA of 6.14 leaves a ton to be desired, and therefore, setting us up for MLB home run picks cashing!

The lefty allowed at least one homer in each of his first six starts this season, and being a lefty sets up beautifully for the White Sox third baseman. He’s been absolutely smashing them with a .523 slugging, not to mention his expected slugging of .507 against ALL pitching. With Cincinnati also having a terrible bullpen, that’s just even more great news.

Lodolo might not last long coming off injury as well, so we absolutely love adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Miguel Vargas hitting a HR (+429 at Novig).

Pete Crow-Armstrong (+344)

The matchup in the nation’s capital is one where we could see both lineups hit a few over the fence given the starting pitching matchup. With the Chicago Cubs starting lefty Shota Imanaga, who has had a huge HR problem at times, if the Washington Nationals lineup was whole, we’d love to focus on them with our MLB home run picks.

Although we’re not, we love backing the Cubs just as much given Jake Irvin and the Nats' incredibly poor bullpen. Irvin’s allowed three homers in his two starts since returning from injury, and their relief staff has allowed 79 homers this year - the most in the league. Therefore, both righties and lefties can smash this spot, but we still have to go with a name that has been flooding your feeds these days.

It might not be an outside-the-box pick, but we’re still rolling with Pete Crow-Armstrong hitting a HR (+344 at Novig) as part of our best MLB home run picks for today. 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

A top three plus bonus target sets you up nicely for MLB home run picks today, but if you’re looking for more, here’s a longshot we love!

We led off our PCA breakdown saying that both teams in Cubs vs. Nationals can go yard early and often, so why not stick with that game? We’re getting this price for a centerfielder that is going for double-digit homers against a starter that more often than not has a home run problem. Therefore, we love Jacob Young as our best MLB home run longshot pick for today!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

We always want you to have as many ways as possible to add both excitement and value to the slate. With that in mind, continue our top MLB home run picks today with our favorite for-fun parlay!

You can see that those names have some correlation to our other targets and even locations we noted yesterday, so you can always play them individually as well. As always, our best MLB home run picks for today are yours to use any way you’d like!