The first weekend of September is in the books, which means that we’ve got a Labor Day MLB slate! It also means that there are afternoon games - most of the slate, in fact - so there is no time to waste locking in some MLB home run picks. While the action starts with Jesus Luzardo and wraps up with Dylan Cease, there are still spots worth targeting. There were even several starters not named until the 11th hour, so let’s see who we’re looking to target with our top MLB home run prediction for today!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

A small slate needs to be made as valuable as possible, and that means more than just MLB home run picks, so you’ll want to check out our MLB expert picks. Along with Luzardo and Cease, we also have guys like Noah Cameron for outs props, Chase Burns for K props, and more. That said, we’ve also recently updated our exclusive MLB home run prop tool so that you can dig for more MLB home run predictions than just the guys below!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 9/7: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

We’ve got a few games in the Northeast to start the slate and four California clashes to close it out, so before making any MLB home run picks official, we need to check the MLB weather report. Once we know what we need to know regarding wind, humidity, and potential postponements, we move on to starting pitcher metrics.

We know that the aforementioned Cease and company have monster K rates, but we want to see some monster barrel rates, hard-hit rates, expected slugging, and more to help us cash MLB home run picks. The same can be said for hitters, along with other metrics like expected ISO, launch angles, average exit velocities, and more.

Of course, bullpens can also allow those analytics, leading to MLB home run predictions winning, so let’s fully break down our top three targets!

Roman Anthony (+570)

One of the first games of the early afternoon action features the Los Angeles Angels about as far from home as it gets in Boston. The Red Sox are coming off a series against the Baltimore Orioles, and now they’ll be facing a former O’s starter in Grayson Rodriguez. That’s prime for several guys to cash MLB home run picks today.

We’re able to say that because the righty has a .215 expected ISO to fellow righties, and against lefties, they’ve been smashing him to the tune of a .216 ISO. Therefore, there’s really no going wrong here, but we’ll stick with a guy who came back from a prolonged absence as hot as possible, including homering in back-to-back games just a handful of games ago.

Once he qualifies for them, we’ll be able to rattle off unreal metrics like hard-hit rates and average exit velocity, so let’s lead off our best MLB home run picks today with Roman Anthony hitting a HR (+570 at FanDuel). 

James Wood (+400)

Is Petco Park in San Diego considered optimal for homers? Nope. However, are Jake Irvin and Nick Pivetta considered aces? Also nope. Also, the Washington Nationals bullpen has allowed the most homers in baseball, while Pivetta should also lead to cashing MLB home run picks, having not pitched since April 12.

The Boston Red Sox got the best of him, but even during those days, he allowed his fair share of homers. Taking a San Diego Padres hitter against the Nats bullpen is 100% an awesome approach, but we’re going to pick on the fact that Pivetta just hasn’t seen action in forever. CJ Abrams went yard last night instead of our guy, so we’re going back to the well.

Seeing the leadoff man get walked three times felt awful, so as long as he gets opportunities to hit the ball, we love adding to our best MLB home run picks today with James Wood (again) hitting a HR (+400 at DraftKings). 

Carter Jensen (+529)

If we see Jac Caglianone back in the lineup, that’s your play here. So that you have one if you have cookout plans or otherwise for the holiday, we could see several Kansas City Royals hit dingers this afternoon at a warm, humid Kauffman Stadium in KC. It’s been a strong spot for MLB home run picks all season, and now the home team gets a rookie.

At least for now, the Arizona Diamondbacks are expected to start prospect Jose Cabrera. That means a righty on the mound to help the leadoff catcher (who had off yesterday) put his power on display. It’s absolutely unreal, as the lefty has a .313 ISO vs. righties, with an expected ISO that is right on par at .317 to suggest that it’s not luck.

He homered three times across two games earlier this month, so let’s add to our best MLB home run picks today with Carter Jensen hitting a HR (+529 at DraftKings).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

The emphasis is always on our top three MLB home run picks and bonus target, but for more value on your Labor Day, here’s our favorite longshot option.

We’ll quickly say it again here - if Jac Caglianone is in the lineup, you could even take him here, as he’s getting odds nearing +700! We don’t want to give you a guy who doesn’t play as tempting as it is, so we’re eyeing Reds vs. Dodgers. This one will have to come at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, but with Michael McGreevy starting for the St. Louis Cardinals, any San Francisco Giants hitter could be our best MLB home run longshot pick today! 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

If you have even more free time on the holiday to consider a for-fun parlay, we’ve got you covered there as well. It’ll be worth the extra few seconds if we see each of these MLB home run picks come through!

Each of those three guys is a pivot from our top three targets, as they’re each in the same respective game. However you decide to utilize our MLB home run picks, make the Labor Day holiday as exciting as possible!