The middle of the week may mean that the weekend feels forever away and that there are no NFL games just yet, but we’re here to make it just as exciting as those things with our best MLB home run picks for today. The slate features a couple of afternoon games to get things started as well, and the later evening action features Coors Field and Sutter Health Park! With other great matchups sandwiched in between (and a doubleheader), we’ve broken them all down to provide you with the best MLB home run predictions for today.

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⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Whether you see an ace on the mound that you’d rather avoid for MLB home run picks or just want to see if we have a pick on your favorite team, just head to our MLB expert picks. There are always K props to consider, and even if you want some basic approaches, game markets are always an option. Even with all that in mind, for more MLB home run predictions to add to your card, just use our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 9/23: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

With both afternoon games and locations like Wrigley Field in play, everything begins with our MLB weather report. From there, it’s about the guys throwing to the plate and the guys standing on either side of it. When it comes to pitchers and hitters, they have many of the same metrics to consider.

They’re ones like hard-hit rates, barrel rates, average exit velocities, expected slugging/ISO, and more. The bonus one for hitters is their launch-angle sweet-spot rates. Also to be considered are the bullpens of each team taking the diamond. After breaking everything down, here is why our top three MLB home run picks made the cut.

Hunter Goodman (+316)

Crushing round-trippers at Coors Field is as old as time, and with the Colorado Rockies starting a rookie righty, you may assume that the opposing Arizona Diamondbacks should lead things off. However, we’re showing some love to the home team. After all, we’ve got a guy looking for a milestone by cashing one of our MLB home run picks!

That would be the most popular target for dingers in Colorado all season, which is the Rockies' elite catcher. While he’s used some three-homer games to get to this point, at the end of the day, he’s going for a 40-homer season. That lines up perfectly with Merrill Kelly on the mound for Arizona, who has some of the worst metrics across the board.

Rather than boring you with a laundry list of them, we’ll just share that Goodman homered in the bottom of the first the last time Kelly pitched at Coors. So, let’s lead off our best MLB home run picks for today with Hunter Goodman hitting a HR (24%, so +316, at Novig). 

Zach Neto (+316)

Merrill Kelly at Coors Field is an amazing combo, but Jeffrey Springs at Sutter Health Park is even more ideal. The A’s lefty has been atop the leaderboard for homers allowed throughout the season, and that home Triple-A ballpark has done him zero favors. So, let’s see him get back to being tied for the most MLB home run picks allowed.

We’d prefer a more reliable lineup than the Los Angeles Angels, but they do still have guys that can get the job done, even beyond Mike Trout. Several times now, Vaughn Grissom has proven to be far more valuable than the odds suggest, but we’re going to go with a target between Trout and Grissom given an incredible .600 slugging vs. lefties since August 1.

As the usual leadoff man, we can cash one of our top MLB home run picks today on the first pitch of the game, so let’s lock in Zach Neto hitting a HR (24%, so +316, at Novig). 

Andy Pages (+525)

We wrapped things up in Los Angeles last night just like the slate does, and we’re going to the same tonight. With the Dodgers starting Yoshinobu Yamamoto tonight, it’s not surprising that we’re going to be focusing on their lineup rather than the one going against him. After Michael King last night, we’re looking to cash some MLB home run picks against Robbie Ray.

The former San Francisco Giants lefty is now in San Diego, and while these California games may feel comfortable for him, he has been on the struggle bus virtually all season. That has led to a .201 expected ISO allowed to righties, so LA provides some options: Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez, and now, a healthy Andy Pages.

The latter two have some impressive power numbers vs. lefties, but since we have to pick our poison here, we’ve added to our best MLB home run picks for today with Andy Pages hitting a HR (+525 at bet365). 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Hopefully a FREE bonus pick already sounds like an awesome addition to our MLB home run picks, but for even more action, here’s our top longshot for today…

We’re back to one of our favorites, and with 15 homers on the year, he’s been a fantastic longshot option, especially in the right spots. Well, Coors Field is exactly that, as is facing the aforementioned Kelly. The Arizona righty’s .253 expected ISO allowed to lefties sets up perfectly for the leadoff man, so let’s hit our best MLB home run longshot pick for today nice and early!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

We know that there are fans out there who can never have enough action. So, for even more MLB home run picks, we’ve pieced three of them together into today’s for-fun parlay…

The Marte pivot is from Goodman while staying in Coors Field, while the other two are teammates of Neto and Pages. Even if one of those stands out as an individual pick, make the most of our best MLB home run picks for today to make this Wednesday slate feel like a Friday night!