After the ultimate light slate of just three games, it’s a drastic turnaround with the entire league back on the diamond today. In fact, we’ve got a doubleheader in the Bronx, so all the more reason to have the best MLB home run picks for today so that we can hit another three-day streak after Pete Alonso’s TWO homers last night! Yankee Stadium is great for homers, and we have both Coors Field AND Sutter Health Park on the menu! Along with the wind at Wrigley Field to consider, there is plenty to keep in mind for the best MLB home run predictions today!

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⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

With a full slate back in action, you’re going to want more than just MLB home run picks, which is where our MLB expert picks comes in for you. After all, there are going to be pitchers that we don’t want to target against, hitters that just barely don’t make the cut. Speaking of which, for even more options for MLB home run predictions, just use our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 9/22: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

The aforementioned windy Wrigley isn’t the only weather impact to consider for our MLB home run picks, which is why our MLB weather report is the first stop. The next stop is researching the starters taking the mound, and that means more than usual this time of year; we have to consider any special pitch count restrictions with the playoffs on the horizon.

Then, it’s still the usual splits to analyze (righty/left and home/road), hard-hit and barrel rates, expected ISO and slugging, and more. The guys hitting these starters have more of the same values to consider, including their launch angles. There are also bullpens to keep in mind, and we’ve done it all for our top MLB home run predictions today!

Miguel Vargas (+550)

A monster slate after such a light slate can almost feel overwhelming, but we’re locked into where we want to start, which is Kauffman Stadium. The ballpark in Kansas City is one that we’ve continued to highlight all season, and along with the Royals' terrible bullpen, why not? Along with Daniel Lynch starting, we love this spot for MLB home run picks.

Obviously, given those last two statements, we love this spot for the Chicago White Sox. Lynch is a former starter turned reliever who has now been thrust back into the starter role here down the stretch. As a lefty, that is ideal for a guy who has cashed for us multiple times this season - the White Sox third baseman.

He has been elite overall, but with his fantastic .276 ISO vs. lefties (.281 expected), we love him against a southpaw even more. So, we’re leading off our best MLB home run picks for today with Miguel Vargas hitting a HR (+550 at bet365). 

Ketel Marte (+310)

Ok, now we’re going to head to the chalky location of Coors Field, where we’re going to pick on a different lefty. That would be Colorado Rockies Kyle Freeland, and like the Royals, there will be a poor bullpen coming in behind him. That sets up well for multiple Arizona Diamondbacks hitters to cash some MLB home run picks.

They’re a lineup that prefers southpaws to begin with, and besides Yordan Alvarez, features one of the best lefty-vs-lefty hitters in baseball in Corbin Carroll. He is the clear and obvious pivot, but we’re going to lean into Freeland’s struggles against righties (.283 ISO allowed) and go with a switch hitter that actually has even more power than Carroll vs. lefties.

That’s with a huge .272 ISO, so it’s time to end his drought; we’re adding to our top MLB home run picks today with Ketel Marte hitting a HR (+310 at bet365). 

Max Muncy (+411)

The low-hanging fruit here is to head to Sutter Health Park, especially with two terrible bullpens featured in Angels vs. A’s, PLUS Yusei Kikuchi and Brady Basso starting. It almost feels too easy, yet we’re still not taking that fruit because we just don’t trust the lineups. A lineup that we do trust when it comes to cashing MLB home run picks is the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The San Diego Padres righty isn’t known for allowing hard contact, but he’s not immune to it - he recently allowed two in pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. We’re going to prefer a lefty in this spot, and without Shohei Ohtani, our target is likely quite obvious. As for pivots, Kyle Tucker has found something recently, and Freddie Freeman is always an option.

Even with those guys in mind, we’re rounding out our best MLB home run picks for today with Max Muncy hitting a HR (+411 at DraftKings).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

A FREE bonus pick is one of the first ways to add to our best MLB home run picks for today. We’re going to continue doing so with a longshot pick…

You likely could have seen this coming, as we have to have at least SOMETHING at Sutter Health Park today! Of course, as a longshot, it’s not the big names of Shea Langeliers and Mike Trout, but the A’s prospect has been promising. While not known for power, he homered here only a week ago, so he’s our best MLB home run longshot pick for today.

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

For yet another way to add to the card, we’ve also pieced together a for-fun parlay. It’s the ultimate potential payout, and here are the MLB home run picks we’ve combined…

Like the above, you also probably could have seen these names coming, especially since we outright named two of them above as pivots. Regardless, we love them all the same, including great individual plays as well. Now it’s time to lock in our MLB home run picks in whichever way looks best to you!