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After an absolutely colossal Sunday on the diamond paired with NFL Week 2, we have the smallest of the small slates. There are just three games tonight, which means slim pickings for MLB home run picks. Not to worry - while it will be an abbreviated, quicker version today, we’ll still provide you with some guys worth your while after cashing in with Pete Crow-Armstrong last night! So, while we’re all recovering from a monster weekend, we’ll start your weekend out with some of the best MLB home run predictions

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⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Again, we know that it’s already a tough day to find great MLB home run picks, and if you aren’t feeling any of them at all, our MLB expert picks may have some targets you prefer. We’ve got an AL East rivalry of Blue Jays vs. O’s and a matchup by the bay with Twins vs. Giants, so you’re covered from coast to coast. For even more MLB home run predictions than our quick duo, just use our MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 9/21: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Even with just three games, we still do our due diligence when it comes to the factors to break down for MLB home run picks, starting with our MLB weather report. We can get through that quite quickly so that we can get to the starters on the mound and check out their righty/lefty splits, hard-hit rates allowed, ISO allowed, and more.

We’ll do the same for the hitters at the plate as well. That means the metrics just mentioned plus expected slugging, barrel rates, launch angles, and more. We also can’t forget that bullpens are also huge factors when it comes to allowing dingers, and when it comes to our pair of MLB home run picks, here’s why they made the cut!

Pete Alonso (+387)

We mentioned the Blue Jays vs. O’s rivalry already, and for that first game of the tripleheader, that’s where we’re leading things off. It’s set to be Trey Yesavage’s return after over a month and a half on the IL, which already helps Baltimore’s lineup. While we’ve hit some K props with him this year, he’s far from immune to allowing MLB home run picks to cash.

Toronto’s righty has a very limited pitch mix with just his four-seamer, splitter, and slider. It’s the slider that he mixes in more than the splitter vs. righties, and the O’s first baseman is more than comfortable handling those. That’s especially true with how incredible he’s been since the All-Star break, and righty vs. righty, he’s elite with a .263 ISO (.271 expected)!

Along with his 99th percentile hard-hit rate, we love leading off our best MLB home run picks for today with Pete Alonso hitting a HR (20.5%, so +387, at Novig). 

Riley Greene (+546)

We’re going from Baltimore to Washington, DC when it comes to our focus, but of course, the Nationals are actually in Detroit taking on the Tigers. That said, it’s their pitching staff that has us focused on that matchup, as their bullpen continues to lead the league in homers allowed by a landslide. We said it yesterday, and it still holds true for MLB home run picks today.

It’s over 100 homers allowed by the relief staff, and DJ Herz is starting ahead of them. That means a guy who made his MLB debut in 2024, and we haven’t seen him since then! Therefore, we can’t expect to see him on the mound for too long, which is great news given what we just noted about the bullpen. After he cashed for us just the other night, we’re adding to our top MLB home run picks today with Riley Greene hitting a HR (+546 at DraftKings). 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

We said it would be an abbreviated card given the short slate, but that doesn’t mean that we aren’t going to add a longshot spot to our best MLB home run picks for today!

After targeting the first two games with our top targets, it’s only fitting that we head to San Francisco here. Bailey Ober starting for the Minnesota Twins means a Rafael Devers homer seems all but a lock (make that today’s third target if you’d like), and their poor bullpen also helps other Giants. So, we’re locking in our best MLB home run longshot pick on a guy who recently homered in pitcher-friendly San Diego!  

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Even with only six games taking the diamond tonight, there are still more than enough players to piece together a for-fun parlay. Here’s the one we’re making to add to our best MLB home run picks above…

Two clear pivots plus one of the best bats in baseball before an injury slowed him down in James Wood. They each have extremely valuable odds on their own, so they’re worth considering for individual plays, but now, you have each of our best MLB home run picks for today!