Colorado outfielder Charlie Blackmon continues to put up excellent fantasy seasons. He’s no longer the asset he once was in the stolen base department, but he continues to hit for a great average and provide solid power numbers and counting stats. Yes, he has Coors Field boosting him, but his walk and strikeout rates have remained steady through the years. His .145 ISO in 2020 was his lowest since 2012 (.124) and his 36.8 AB/HR was his highest mark since 2013 (41.0). His power profile is declining, but fortunately the games he plays at Coors Field will prolong the inevitable decline.
In terms of batting average, since 2016, Blackmon has hit .276, .249, .256 and .300 on the road. However, take a look at his batting averages at home over the past four years: .391, .334, .379 and .306.
Wow. Obviously hitters get a boost at Coors Field, and it’s not that Blackmon has been horrible away from his home park, but it’s a pretty steep drop off for the 34-year-old outfielder. If we take a look at the power numbers, you can see the drop off there.
2018 - 14 HR in 305 at-bats at home versus 15 HR in 321 at-bats on the road
2019 - 22 HR in 272 at-bats at home versus 10 HR in 308 at-bats on the road
2020 - 3 HR in 111 at-bats at home versus 3 home runs in 110 at-bats on the road
Since the start of 2018, Blackmon has homered once every 17.64 at-bats at Coors Field, but that mark drops to 26.39 at-bats when away from Coors. As his batted ball profile becomes less stellar, the discrepancy is only going to become more vast. Lastly, take a look at some of his percentile rankings, and you can see that the numbers are either declining, or overall unimpressive.
Courtesy of Baseball Savant
Blackmon is a good hitter, but Coors continues to boost him up a couple of notches. That whiff rate is increasing, and he’s been able to keep the strikeout rate afloat, but this is something worth noting. Especially when you consider some other aspects in terms of his plate discipline. Before you view the graph, just view the quick hitters here:
His swinging strike rate has increased five straight seasons, culminating in 2020’s 10.3 percent mark
His contact rate has dropped for six straight seasons, and his 79 percent mark in 2020 was the first time he’s ever been below 81 percent.
His zone contact rate has also dropped for six straight seasons, and marks the third straight year that he’s been below 90 percent
His strikeout rate hasn’t quite seen the rise that one might expect, but that line is trending up and to the right overall. The 2021 season could see Blackmon post a career-high strikeout rate. Sure, it’ll probably still be a decent mark compared to the rest of the league, but elevated for Blackmon’s standards.
The writing has been on the wall for Blackmon’s regression, but even with the plummeting metrics, he’s put up good stats, thanks to playing half of his games in baseball’s most hitter friendly park. Consider what I said up there earlier: Some of those marks that decreased now for the sixth-straight year, means that in years past, we mentioned the same thing. For a number to decrease for six straight seasons, it needs to decrease for two, three, four and five years before it gets to six! Coors Field is helping offset the inevitable but the time is coming, and many of the popular projection systems see it coming, too.
Blackmon is currently the 25th outfielder off the board, coming in at pick 89, per NFBC data, which puts him at the back end of the sixth round in 15-team setups. The allure of half of his games in Coors Field helps justify him at that price, but there are plenty of other power bats in the outfield at a better price. Also, I can’t justify taking Blackmon over Austin Meadows and Byron Buxton , who are within a handful of picks of the Colorado outfielder.
If he slips in drafts, you can take the plunge, but it’s foolish to view him as a foundational piece of your fantasy team’s offense in 2021.
Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
THE BAT projections courtesy of Derek Carty
Steamer projections (Steamerprojections.com)
ATC projections courtesy of Ariel Cohen
ZiPS projections courtesy of Dan Szymborski